Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	July 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	66
ISBN Number	1750-216X
Product Code	BMI01537

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Summary

Bolstered by an expansionary spending policy, Oman is looking to mitigate the sharp drop in crude oil revenues experienced in H109 with the addition of an injection of state investment in order to underpin flagging private-sector economic activity. Last year's impressive, if boom-fuelled, 13% real GDP growth will clearly not be matched, but Oman should still manage positive real GDP growth of 0.4% this year (upwardly revised on the back of 2008 data and the recent uptick in oil prices), rising to a respectable 2.5% next year.

On the political side, little disturbs the peace in Oman, and there is not much likelihood of domestic political instability ruffling the sultanate's surface calm over the forecast period. Sultan Qaboos Bin Said continues to centralise power around his leadership, leaving little scope for open debate or criticism of his rule. The Majlis al-Shura (consultative council) debates some measures with a degree of openness, but there is no scope for criticism of the government's performance or to probe deeper issues of public policy or strategy.

Content

BMI Risk Ratings
BMI Risk Ratings - Oman
BMI Risk Ratings - Yemen
Middle East - Ratings League Oman Executive Summary
Global Green Shoots, but Challenges Remain
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Oman
- Oman SWOT Analysis
- Domestic Outlook
- A Harder Line on Internal Dissent?
- despite Modernising Instincts, There Are Signs That The Government Is Taking An Increasingly Authoritarian Stance towards Civil Liberties.
- Foreign Policy
- Ramping up Regional Diplomacy
- Oman Is Aiming High in The International Diplomacy Stakes, with Muscat Being Sought out by A Number of International Players.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Oman
- Oman SWOT Analysis
- Economic Activity
- A Year of Living Dangerously
- Buoyed by Rising Oil Production, The Government Will Continue to Attempt to Spend Its Way out of Recession, While Seeking to Boost Non-Oil Sectors over The Long Term.
- Monetary Policy
- Liquidity Eases out of The Economy
- Inflation Is Headed below 5.0%, Due to Declining Commodity Prices and Liquidity, as Well as Reduced Demand.
Chapter 1.3: Business Environment - Oman
- Oman SWOT Analysis
- Business Environment Outlook
- Institutions
- Infrastructure
- Market Orientation
- Operational Risk
- Yemen Executive Summary
- Yemen SWOT Analysis
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Yemen
- Domestic Politics
- How Likely Is Southern Secession?
- An Outbreak of Protests in The South Could Presage Worsening Civil Conflict, as Secessionist Forces Challenge The Authority of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
- Foreign Policy
- Washington-Backed Gcc Bolsters Support
- Anxious Gulf States Are Offering Renewed Cooperation and Funding to Sana'a in Order to Shore up Their Own Security Situations.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Yemen
- Yemen SWOT Analysis
- Economic Activity
- Oil Slide Leaves Government Staring into Abyss
- The Stark Decline in Oil Production Is Unlikely to Be Fully Mitigated by The Q3 Startup of Lng Exports, Leaving The Economy in A Subdued Condition.
- Fiscal Policy
- Widening Deficit in Prospect
- Yemen's Weak Revenue Outlook Will Be Compounded by Rigidities in Its Expenditure.
- Balance of Payments
- Grim Balance of Payments Outlook
- Yemen's External Position Is Pretty Bleak, Largely Due to The Country's Declining Oil Industry.
Chapter 2.3: Business Environment - Yemen
- Yemen SWOT Analysis
- Business Environment Outlook
- Institutions
- Infrastructure
- Market Orientation
- Operational Risk
Chapter 3: Special Report
- The Outlook for Global Banking
- Business Environment Rating Outlook
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
- Global Assumptions
List of Tables
- Table: Oman Political Overview
- Table: Economic Activity
- Table: Oman - Monetary Policy
- Table: Bmi Business and Operational Risk Ratings
- Table: Bmi Legal Framework Ratings
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Table: Middle East & Africa Annual Fdi Inflows
- Table: Bmi Trade Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations
- Table: Yemen Political Overview
- Table: Yemen - Economic Activity
- Table: Yemen - Fiscal Policy
- Table: Yemen - Balance of Paymen Ts
- Table: Bmi Legal Framework Ratings
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Table: Middle East & Africa Annual Fdi Inflows
- Table: Bmi Trade Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations
- Table: Loan -to-Deposit Ratios, Selected States
- Table: Loan Growth (% Chg Y-O-Y), Selected States
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings, Selected States
- Table: Global Assumptions
- Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth
- Table: Commodities