Colombia Defence & Security Report Q1 2008

During Q407, the administration of President lvaro Uribe enjoyed some success in its struggles with the Fuerrzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) and drug smugglers. In late October, FARC commander Martin Cabellero, along with 18 other rebels, died in a battle with the Colombian army. The regional and municipal elections went ahead in October largely without incident. Voters chose 32 governors, 418 provincial legislators, 1,098 mayors and 12,030 council members across all but two of Colombia's 1,098 municipalities.

These developments followed the arrest in Q307 of several leading drug smugglers, including Diego Montoya, who had been widely recognised as being the leader of the Norte del Valle drug cartel. In early November, the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) reported that there were clear signs of disruption in the markets for cocaine (and for methamphetamines). The DEA has found that, in the first nine months of 2007, the street price per gram of cocaine has risen by 44%, while the level of purity has fallen by 15%.

Despite the arrests, there are several grounds for concern. For instance, there is some evidence of the emergence of new armed groups in the wake of the disbanding of the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC). The International Crisis Group, for one, believes that the government's plans for the reintegration of paramilitaries into normal society is 'deeply flawed'. Meanwhile, much of the action has shifted across the porous border into neighbouring Venezuela, where crime is soaring. Indeed, some sources suggest that the murder rate in Venezuela is now significantly in excess of that of Colombia, which has long held a justified reputation for being a violent country.

In the meantime, relations between Colombia and Venezuela have deteriorated further. As noted in Q307, the Colombian government had been concerned about the purchases of large quantities of firearms (including 100,000 AK assault rifles from Russia) by the Venezuelan armed forces: the Colombian government is concerned that these weapons will find their way to paramilitary groups or drug smugglers in Colombia. Towards the end of November, Venezuela's President Hugo Chvez 'froze' relations with the government of Colombia. This was in response to President Uribe's decision to end the role of President Chvez as intermediary in negotiations with FARC. The implication is that an immediate release of the 44 'exchangeable' hostages held by FARC (including former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt) appears very unlikely.

In mid-October, the International Crisis Group (ICG) released a report, Colombia: Moving Forward with the ELN, which suggested that the peace negotiations between the government and the Ejercito de Liberacin Nacional face failure unless substantial bottlenecks are overcome. The ICG suggested that a cease-fire is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for peace. 'The ELN should release kidnap victims, de-mine some areas, make more information available and propose a model for ceasefire implementation and verification. The Uribe administration should be more flexible on a complete cessation of hostilities and the concentration and identification of ELN troops in a ceasefire. Norway, Spain and Switzerland should consider offering expertise on ceasefires and related matters.' Colombia's indigenous arms industry is small, but is looking to expand sales throughout South America and, indeed, further afield.