Country Report Guyana 4th Quarter 2011
Market Research Report

Country Report Guyana 4th Quarter 2011 Market Research Report

Outlook for 2012-13

Given firmly entrenched racial voting patterns, no significant shift in the balance of power in the National Assembly is expected to take place at the next general election, which will take place by December 2011. With the president, Bharrat Jagdeo, barred from running for another term, and assuming that the ruling People's Progressive Party-Civic (PPP-Civic) retains its parliamentary majority, the party's general secretary and political advisor to Mr Jagdeo, Donald Ramotar, will become president. Open hostility between the PPP-Civic and the main opposition People's National Congress-Reform (PNC-R) will continue to impair legislative agility during the outlook period. Mr Ramotar is expected to continue to maintain the efforts of the Jagdeo administration to secure substantial foreign development assistance via commitments to preserve the environment in Guyana's vast interior. Economic policy priorities will include improving the implementation of governance reforms and raising competitiveness within the framework of a poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP) agreed with international financial institutions. Driven by high commodity prices and several large infrastructure and minding investments, prospects for macroeconomic performance are favourable. However, the current-account deficit will widen sharply during the outlook period, as the construction of a major hydroelectric power plant temporarily boosts imports.

The political scene

Leaked US diplomatic cables have caused controversy in the run-up to the election, with several of the documents linking government officials to the illegal narcotics trade. The government has dismissed the claims outright and is not expected to suffer any fallout at the looming general election.

Economic policy

Although remaining strong, the government's overall fiscal position deteriorated in the first half of 2011 as capital spending increased by nearly 24% year on year in the run-up to the general election. The public debt stock has continued to rise despite the fiscal surplus.

The domestic economy

Reflecting substantial improvement in the production of sugar, rice gold and bauxite, real GDP expanded by 5.9% in the first half of 2011, the fastest rate of growth in decades. Higher inflation was driven by elevated energy prices.

Foreign trade and payments

An acceleration in import spending more than offset higher export earnings, resulting in a widening of the current-account deficit in the first half of 2011.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 1;60;70
NAICS Code: 11;52;72

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available