Distributed Solar Energy Generation

Sub-Utility Scale Photovoltaics: Market Analysis and Forecasts

Publication Date	September 2009
Publisher	Pike Research
Product Type	Report
Pages	68
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	PIK00002

Buy this product or for assistance call +44 20 7060 7474

PDF £900.00$1497 | €1007

FAX Order above formats by FAX

Summary

Distributed energy generation, using a variety of renewable power technologies, is one of the most important tools for addressing the challenge of meeting the world's growing electricity demand. Within the Renewable Distributed Energy Generation (RDEG) market, sub-utility scale solar photovoltaics (PV) are by far the largest and most significant segment, representing approximately 98% of the total.

Solar PV growth has been spearheaded in recent years by markets such as Germany, Japan, Spain, and the United States. Remaining countries in the European Union are starting to pick up strong momentum as well. Emerging markets in India and China show significant promise in the longer term. Of all the opportunities in PV, Pike Research finds that the most compelling growth potential lies in decentralized electricity generation, whether in small rooftop or large commercial installations. PV has the advantage of being truly modular, as it can reach cost efficiencies with installations that are just a few kilowatts to 20 MW or even 200 MW. For purposes of our study, distributed PV is considered to be those systems less than 20 MW in size, where electricity does not pass through the traditional transmission and distribution system prior to being used. The estimated size of the distributed PV market in 2008 was 3.6 GW, and we forecast that it will grow to 9.7 GW by 2013, representing a compound annual growth rate of 22%. This translates into a $30 billion market in 2008, growing to nearly $60 billion by 2013.

This Pike Research report analyzes the market for distributed solar PV in the context of the broader RDEG market, which also includes small wind energy generation and fuel cell technologies. The study covers key business issues and drivers of demand for sub-utility scale solar power, including government-driven legislation and incentives as well as market-based factors. Technology and cost issues are examined in depth, as are a number of key industry players. Market forecasts include distributed solar energy generation capacity, system revenues, and installed prices through 2013 for installations in all regions of the world, with line-item segmentation for 12 key countries.

Key questions addressed:

Why is distributed solar energy generation an important part of meeting the world's growing electricity demands?
How does sub-utility scale solar PV compare to other RDEG technologies such as small wind and fuel cells?
How large is this market segment today and how large is it forecast to grow by 2013?
What are the key applications for RDEG technologies in general and distributed solar in particular?
What are the key drivers of growth?
Who are the key industry players?

Who needs this report?

Solar Installers/Integrators
Solar Cell and Module Manufacturers
Solar Equipment Vendors
Government Energy and Environmental Agencies
Investment Community
Industry Associations and Non-Profit Organizations

Content

1. Executive Summary
2. Market Issues
- 2.1 Defining the Market
- 2.2 Photovoltaic Systems
- 2.3 Energy Storage
  - 2.3.1 Batteries
  - 2.3.2 Compressed Air Energy Storage
  - 2.3.3 Flywheels
  - 2.3.4 Pumped Hydro
  - 2.3.5 Supercapacitors
  - 2.3.6 Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage
- 2.4 Greening of Conventional DEG Technologies
  - 2.4.1 Microturbines
  - 2.4.2 Combustion Turbines
  - 2.4.3 Reciprocating Engines
- 2.5 Market Segmentation
  - 2.5.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity
  - 2.5.2 Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity
  - 2.5.3 Global Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
  - 2.5.4 Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
  - 2.5.5 Global Distributed Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
- 2.6 Industry Growth Drivers
  - 2.6.1 Legislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Subsidies
  - 2.6.2 Improvements to Existing Technologies
  - 2.6.3 Emergence of New Technologies
  - 2.6.4 Cogeneration
  - 2.6.5 Other Drivers
    - 2.6.5.1 Push for Energy Independence
    - 2.6.5.2 Benefits of Green Marketing
    - 2.6.5.3 Supporting Organizational Missions
- 2.7 Implementation Issues
  - 2.7.1 Grid Interconnection
    - 2.7.1.1 Grid Integrity and Safety
    - 2.7.1.2 Grid Intelligence
    - 2.7.1.2.1 Integration with System Components
    - 2.7.1.2.2 Net Metering
    - 2.7.1.2.3 Demand-Side Management
3. Technology Issues
- 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems
  - 3.1.1 History
  - 3.1.2 Basic Principles
  - 3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
  - 3.1.4 Types
  - 3.1.5 Market Trends
    - 3.1.5.1 Installations by Country
    - 3.1.5.2 Grid Tied vs. Off Grid
  - 3.1.6 Marketability and Commercialization
    - 3.1.6.1 Cost
    - 3.1.6.1.1 Module Cost
    - 3.1.6.1.2 Economies of Scale
    - 3.1.6.1.3 Silicon Per Watt
    - 3.1.6.1.4 Silicon Supply
    - 3.1.6.1.5 PV System Installed Cost
    - 3.1.6.2 Efficiency
    - 3.1.6.3 Reliability
    - 3.1.6.4 Scalability
    - 3.1.6.5 Availability
- 3.2 RDEG Applications
  - 3.2.1 Residential Off Grid
  - 3.2.2 Residential Grid Tied
  - 3.2.3 Commercial and Retail
  - 3.2.4 Community Microgrid
  - 3.2.5 Telecom Primary and Backup Power
  - 3.2.6 Hybrid systems
  - 3.2.7 Application Comparison
4. Demand Drivers
- 4.1 Legislation, Regulations, Incentives, and Subsidies
  - 4.1.1 United States
    - 4.1.1.1 State Level
    - 4.1.1.2 California
    - 4.1.1.3 New Jersey
    - 4.1.1.4 Massachusetts
  - 4.1.2 Europe
    - 4.1.2.1 Germany
    - 4.1.2.2 Spain
    - 4.1.2.3 Italy
    - 4.1.2.4 France
    - 4.1.2.5 Rest of Europe
  - 4.1.3 Asia Pacific
    - 4.1.3.1 China
    - 4.1.3.2 Japan
    - 4.1.3.3 India
    - 4.1.3.4 Korea
  - 4.1.4 Rest of the World
- 4.2 Nonlegislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Funding Drivers
  - 4.2.1 Conventional Energy Demand Trends
  - 4.2.2 Economics Overview
    - 4.2.2.1 Conventional Electricity Price
    - 4.2.2.2 RDEG Technology Price
  - 4.2.3 Break-Even Analysis
5. Market Forecasts
- 5.1 World Energy Generation
- 5.2 World Renewable Distributed Energy Generation
- 5.3 Photovoltaic Systems
  - 5.3.1 North America
  - 5.3.2 Europe
  - 5.3.3 Asia Pacific
  - 5.3.4 Rest of the World
6. Key Industry Players
- 6.1 Q-Cells
- 6.2 SolarWorld
- 6.3 Suntech
- 6.4 First Solar
- 6.5 SunPower
- 6.6 Solaria
7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
- Segmentation of Major Electricity Generation Sources into Renewable Distributed
- Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity by Source, 2007
- Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity, Distributed vs. Centralized - 2007
- Global Cum. Renewable Electricity Capacity by Source , 2007
- Global Electricity Generation Capacity Adds by Source, 2007
- Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Add, Distributed vs. Centralized - 2007
- Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Source - 2007
- Annual PV Installations for OECD Countries, 2003-2008
- Cumulative Installed PV Systems, Grid Tied vs. Off Grid, 2003-2008
- Representative Global Deployments of Telecom Backup Power by Technology
- U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards, Goals, and Required Renewables
- Comparative Household Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries, 1999-2006
- Comparative Industry Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries, 1999-2006
- Electricity Generation Sources for U.S., OECD, Europe, and Japan - 2007
- Comparative Prices of Conventional and RDEG Electricity Generation Sources
- SunPower PV Value Chain Cost Reduction Model, 2006-2012
- Installed PV System Price Projection, 2007-2013
- Global Installed Electricity Generating Capacity by Geographic Region, 2005-2025
- Annual RDEG Technologies Capacity Additions, 2007-2013
- Annual RDEG Technology Revenue, 2007-2013
- Distributed Sub-Utility Scale PV Deployments as % of Total, 2008
- Summary Comparison of RDEG Technologies
- Relevant RDEG Standards and Permitting Agencies
- Summary Comparison of Applications by RDEG Technology
- Summary of Emission Reduction Targets for Major Industrialized Countries and Regions
- Summary Comparison of U.S. Federal Tax Credit for RDEG Technologies
- Summary of U.S. Subsidies and Incentives for RDEG Techs
- PV Capacity Projection Scenarios for Total and Distributed Capacity, World Markets: 2007-2010
List of Tables
- Annual Growth of Distributed PV Capacity, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- Distributed PV Global Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Distributed PV System Installed Price, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Distributed PV Installed System Revenue, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- Annual Growth of RDEG Technologies, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
- RDEG Technologies Global Capacity, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- RDEG Technologies Installed Price, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
- RDEG Technologies System Revenue, World Markets: 2007 to 2013