Renewable Distributed Energy Generation

Renewable Distributed Energy Generation

Sub-Utility Scale Photovoltaics, Small Wind Power, and Fuel Cells: Market Analysis and Forecasts

Increasing numbers of countries and regions of the world have committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and diversity energy resources to include more renewable sources. Meanwhile, the worlds electricity generation is expected to increase nearly two-fold by 2030 from 2007 levels. The traditional electricity grids centralized power generation model is very inefficient and limited. In most industrialized countries, the overall generation efficiency averages 30-35% by the time electricity reaches the customer and the electricity grid is getting more and more congested. Further, it is estimated that 33% of the global population lives without power today.

One of the key solutions to these challenges lies in Renewable Distributed Energy Generation. RDEG technologies are comprised of three principal technologies: photovoltaic, small wind, and fuell cells, and are often used in concert with emerging energy storage technologies. RDEG technologies generate power at the point of consumption, avoiding costly and inefficient transmission and distribution. RDEG technologies generate electricity with few if any emissions.

This Pike Research report provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges associated with deploying RDEG technologies on a global basis to meet the growing electricity needs of the planet. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the technologies as well as key drivers of growth over the next five years and beyond. The report takes an in-depth analysis of the key cost drivers of each RDEG technology. Detailed market forecasts of capacity, price, and installed system revenue potential are provided for each technology covering each significant global market. Key players in each category are also profiled.

Key questions addressed:

• Why is sub-utility scale Renewable Distributed Energy Generation (RDEG) an important part of the solution to the challenges of climate change?
• What are the key sub-utility scale RDEG technologies and how do they compare across a number of dimensions?
• How big is the RDEG category today and how large is the market forecast to grow?
• What are the key applications of RDEG technologies?
• What are the key drivers of growth for RDEG technologies?
• Who are the key industry players in the RDEG technology market?

Who needs this report?

• RDEG technology providers: PV, small wind, and fuel cell systems
• Distribution, installation, and service providers
• Venture capital and other equity investors
• RDEG project developers
• Government agencies
• Industry associations, non-profit organizations, and key industry consistuents
• Consulting firms and investment banks focused on RDEG technologies

• 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Market Issues
  • 2.1 Defining the Market
  • 2.2 Photovoltaic Systems
  • 2.3 Energy Storage
  • 2.3.1 Batteries
  • 2.3.2 Compressed Air Energy Storage
  • 2.3.3 Flywheels
  • 2.3.4 Pumped Hydro
  • 2.3.5 Supercapacitors
  • 2.3.6 Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage
  • 2.4 Greening of Conventional DEG Technologies
  • 2.4.1 Microturbines
  • 2.4.2 Combustion Turbines
  • 2.4.3 Reciprocating Engines
  • 2.5 Market Segmentation
  • 2.5.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity
  • 2.5.2 Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity
  • 2.5.3 Global Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
  • 2.5.4 Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
  • 2.5.5 Global Distributed Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions
  • 2.6 Industry Growth Drivers
  • 2.6.1 Legislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Subsidies
  • 2.6.2 Improvements to Existing Technologies
  • 2.6.3 Emergence of New Technologies
  • 2.6.4 Cogeneration
  • 2.6.5 Other Drivers
  • 2.6.5.1 Push for Energy Independence
  • 2.6.5.2 Benefits of Green Marketing
  • 2.6.5.3 Supporting Organizational Missions
  • 2.7 Implementation Issues
  • 2.7.1 Grid Interconnection
  • 2.7.1.1 Grid Integrity and Safety
  • 2.7.1.2 Grid Intelligence
  • 2.7.1.2.1 Integration with System Components
  • 2.7.1.2.2 Net Metering
  • 2.7.1.2.3 Demand-Side Management
• 3. Technology Issues
  • 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems
  • 3.1.1 History
  • 3.1.2 Basic Principles
  • 3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
  • 3.1.4 Types
  • 3.1.5 Market Trends
  • 3.1.5.1 Installations by Country
  • 3.1.5.2 Grid Tied vs. Off Grid
  • 3.1.6 Marketability and Commercialization
  • 3.1.6.1 Cost
  • 3.1.6.1.1 Module Cost
  • 3.1.6.1.2 Economies of Scale
  • 3.1.6.1.3 Silicon Per Watt
  • 3.1.6.1.4 Silicon Supply
  • 3.1.6.1.5 PV System Installed Cost
  • 3.1.6.2 Efficiency
  • 3.1.6.3 Reliability
  • 3.1.6.4 Scalability
  • 3.1.6.5 Availability
  • 3.2 RDEG Applications
  • 3.2.1 Residential Off Grid
  • 3.2.2 Residential Grid Tied
  • 3.2.3 Commercial and Retail
  • 3.2.4 Community Microgrid
  • 3.2.5 Telecom Primary and Backup Power
  • 3.2.6 Hybrid systems
  • 3.2.7 Application Comparison
  • 4. Demand Drivers
  • 4.1 Legislation, Regulations, Incentives, and Subsidies
  • 4.1.1 United States
  • 4.1.1.1 State Level
  • 4.1.1.2 California
  • 4.1.1.3 New Jersey
  • 4.1.1.4 Massachusetts
  • 4.1.2 Europe
  • 4.1.2.1 Germany
  • 4.1.2.2 Spain
  • 4.1.2.3 Italy
  • 4.1.2.4 France
  • 4.1.2.5 Rest of Europe
  • 4.1.3 Asia Pacific
  • 4.1.3.1 China
  • 4.1.3.2 Japan
  • 4.1.3.3 India
  • 4.1.3.4 Korea
  • 4.1.4 Rest of the World
  • 4.2 Nonlegislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Funding Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Conventional Energy Demand Trends
  • 4.2.2 Economics Overview
  • 4.2.2.1 Conventional Electricity Price
  • 4.2.2.2 RDEG Technology Price
  • 4.2.3 Break-Even Analysis
• 5. Market Forecasts
  • 5.1 World Energy Generation
  • 5.2 World Renewable Distributed Energy Generation
  • 5.3 Photovoltaic Systems
  • 5.3.1 North America
  • 5.3.2 Europe
  • 5.3.3 Asia Pacific
  • 5.3.4 Rest of the World
• 6. Key Industry Players
  • 6.1 Q-Cells
  • 6.2 SolarWorld
  • 6.3 Suntech
  • 6.4 First Solar
  • 6.5 SunPower
  • 6.6 Solaria
• 7. Company Directory
• 8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
• 9. Table of Contents
• 10. Table of Figures
• 11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
• List of Charts and Figures
  • Segmentation of Major Electricity Generation Sources into Renewable Distributed
  • Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity by Source, 2007
  • Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity, Distributed vs. Centralized - 2007
  • Global Cum. Renewable Electricity Capacity by Source , 2007
  • Global Electricity Generation Capacity Adds by Source, 2007
  • Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Add, Distributed vs. Centralized - 2007
  • Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Source - 2007
  • Annual PV Installations for OECD Countries, 2003-2008
  • Cumulative Installed PV Systems, Grid Tied vs. Off Grid, 2003-2008
  • Representative Global Deployments of Telecom Backup Power by Technology
  • U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards, Goals, and Required Renewables
  • Comparative Household Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries, 1999-2006
  • Comparative Industry Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries, 1999-2006
  • Electricity Generation Sources for U.S., OECD, Europe, and Japan - 2007
  • Comparative Prices of Conventional and RDEG Electricity Generation Sources
  • SunPower PV Value Chain Cost Reduction Model, 2006-2012
  • Installed PV System Price Projection, 2007-2013
  • Global Installed Electricity Generating Capacity by Geographic Region, 2005-2025
  • Annual RDEG Technologies Capacity Additions, 2007-2013
  • Annual RDEG Technology Revenue, 2007-2013
  • Distributed Sub-Utility Scale PV Deployments as % of Total, 2008
  • Summary Comparison of RDEG Technologies
  • Relevant RDEG Standards and Permitting Agencies
  • Summary Comparison of Applications by RDEG Technology
  • Summary of Emission Reduction Targets for Major Industrialized Countries and Regions
  • Summary Comparison of U.S. Federal Tax Credit for RDEG Technologies
  • Summary of U.S. Subsidies and Incentives for RDEG Techs
  • PV Capacity Projection Scenarios for Total and Distributed Capacity, World Markets: 2007-2010
• List of Tables
  • Annual Growth of Distributed PV Capacity, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
  • Distributed PV Global Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
  • Distributed PV System Installed Price, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
  • Distributed PV Installed System Revenue, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
  • Annual Growth of RDEG Technologies, World Markets: 2008 to 2013
  • RDEG Technologies Global Capacity, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
  • RDEG Technologies Installed Price, World Markets: 2007 to 2013
  • RDEG Technologies System Revenue, World Markets: 2007 to 2013