Iran Power Report Q2 2008

Publication Date	May 2008
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	41
ISBN Number	1755-7054
Product Code	BMI01940

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£425.00
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Summary

The new Iran Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 18.97% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2012. BMI's MEA power generation estimate for 2007 is 1,130 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,573twh by 2012, representing a rise of 39.3% between 2007 and the end of the period.

Thermal power generation in 2007 is estimated by BMI at 999twh, accounting for 88.4% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2012 is 1,372twh, implying 37.4% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 87.2%, thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran's thermal generation in 2007 is estimated at 187twh, or 18.75% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to account for 19.37% of thermal generation.

For Iran, gas was the dominant fuel in 2006, accounting for 52.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 44.3% and hydro with a 2.1% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 865.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 27.2% growth over the period since 2007. Iran's estimated 2007 market share of 27.33% is set to rise to 28.21% by 2012. Iran's nuclear demand is forecast to reach 8twh by 2012, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 32.65%.

Iran is ranked equal third, alongside South Africa, in BMI's newly revised Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its market size and high proportion of renewables (hydro-power) use. The power sector isn't competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive. If South Africa can sort out its current power supply problems and make some progress towards privatisation, then it should be able to overtake Iran during the next few quarters.

BMI is forecasting real GDP growth averaging 4.55% per annum between 2007-2012, with the 2008 forecast being 5.00%. The population is expected to expand from 70.8mn to 74.1mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 135% and 18%, respectively). The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 170twh in 2007 to 209twh by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential rising from an estimated 36twh in 2007 to 89twh in 2012, assuming 7.1% annual growth in generating capacity. Losses during power transmission and distribution mean that the actual level of Iranian power exports is well below the theoretical surplus, but is set to rise.

Content

Executive Summary .........5 SWOT Analysis.................6 Iran Political SWOT .............................................................. 6 Iran Economic SWOT ............................................................ 6 Iran Business Environment SWOT......................................... 7 Industry Overview ............8 Global......................................................................................... 8 Table: Global Summary......................................................... 8 Middle East/Africa Region.......................................................... 9 Table: Middle East/Africa Power Generation (twh) ............ 10 Table: Middle East/Africa Thermal Power Generation (twh) .............................................................................................................................. 11 Table: Middle East/Africa Primary Energy Demand (mn t 12 Table: Middle East/Africa Gas Consumption (bcm) ............ 13 Table: Middle East/Africa Coal Consumption (mn toe)....... 14 Table: Middle East/Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption (twh)........................................................................................................................... 15 Market Overview Iran ..16 Primary Energy Demand ..................................................... 16 Power Generation................................................................ 16 Power Consumption............................................................. 17 Regulation/Competition ....................................................... 17 Pricing................................................................................. 18 Power Transmission ............................................................ 18 Business Environment Rankings .................................................................................................................19 Middle East/Africa Region........................................................ 19 Power Scores ....................................................................... 19 Iran Power Rating - Overview............................................. 19 Iran Power Rating Potential Returns................................ 20 Iran Power Rating Risks to Potential Returns................... 20 Legal Framework...................................................................... 20 Infrastructure............................................................................ 22 Labour Force............................................................................ 23 Foreign Investment Policy ........................................................ 24 Tax Regime............................................................................... 25 Industry Forecast Sce26 Iran Power Outlook .................................................................. 26 Generation........................................................................... 26 Gas-fired.............................................................................. 26 Oil-fired ............................................................................... 27 Coal-fired ............................................................................ 27 Nuclear Energy.................................................................... 27 Hydro-electric...................................................................... 28 Renewable Energy ............................................................... 28 Power Costs......................................................................... 28 Transmission........................................................................ 28 Table: Iran Power Historic Data & Forecasts ................. 30 Table: Iran Power (Thermal) Historic Data & Forecasts. 31 Table: Iran Power (Non-thermal) Historic Data & For 32 Iran Power (Costs) Historic Data & Forecasts ................ 32 Assumptions And Methodology............................................ 33 Key Risks To BMIs Forecast Scenario................................ 33 Economic Outlook..........34 Table: Iran - Economic Activity........................................... 36 Competitive Landscape.37 Executive Summary................................................................... 37 BMI Forecast Modelling .38 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................... 38 Power Industry.......................................................................... 39 Cross Checks ............................................................................ 39 Sources ..................................................................................... 40

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Product features / use

Scope	Expert Insight/Opinion
Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted