Italy Power Report Q3 2009

The new Italy Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.32% of Developed Markets power generation by 2012. BMI's Developed Markets power generation estimate for 2008 is 7,443 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 0.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,749TWh by 2013, representing an increase of 4.1%.

Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh, accounting for 64.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 4,993TWh, implying 3.6% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 64.4% - in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Italy's thermal generation in 2008 is estimated at 275TWh, or 5.70% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 5.75% of thermal generation.

For Italy, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 46% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 40%, coal at 10% and hydro-power with a 5% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,028mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 3.8% growth over the period. Italy's 2008 market share of 4.55% is set to rise to 4.64% by 2013. Italy's 39TWh of hydro demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 45TWh by 2013, with its share of the Developed Markets hydro market rising from 4.30% to 4.58% over the period.

BMI is now forecasting zero Italian real GDP growth between 2008 and 2013, although the 2009 forecast is a decline of 4.5%. Population is expected to expand slightly from 59.0mn to 60.5mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to decline by 9% and 2% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 318TWh in 2008 to 321TWh by the end of the forecast period. We are assuming 1.1% annual growth in power generation.

Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Italian electricity generation of 13.7%, which is towards the middle of the range for the developed markets. This equates to 8.0% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 5.4% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to fall from 5.9% in 2008-2013 to 5.4% during 2013-2018, representing 11.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 41% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 10% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Italy Political SWOT
• Italy Economic SWOT
• Industry Overview
• Global
  • Table: Global Summary
• Developed Markets
  • Table: Developed Markets Power Generation (TWh)
  • Table: Developed Markets Thermal Power Generation (TWh)
  • Table: Developed Markets Primary Energy Demand (mn toe)
  • Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
  • Table: Developed Markets Coal Consumption (mn toe)
  • Table: Developed Markets Nuclear Energy Consumption (TWh)
• Market Overview ??