Kuwait Power Report Q1 2010

The new Kuwait Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2014 the country will account for 4.20% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation. BMI's MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,264 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,659TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 31.3% between 2009 and the end of the period.

Regional thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,158TWh, accounting for 96.5% of the total electricity supplied in the MEA. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,523TWh, implying 31.5% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 97.6% - thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kuwait's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 53TWh, or 4.58% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for an unchanged 4.58% of thermal generation.

In 2008 oil was the dominant fuel for Kuwait, accounting for 57.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 43.0%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 929.8mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 25.1% growth over the period since 2009. Kuwait's estimated 2009 market share of 3.70% is set to climb to 4.09% by 2014.

Kuwait has escaped from last place by overtaking Algeria in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, in spite of its modest market size, state control of the power sector and a particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive. Kuwait is eight points behind South Africa, so is unlikely to challenge for promotion over the next few quarters.

BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 2.90% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 assumption being a decline of 2.40%. Population is expected to expand from 3.20mn to 3.50mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to rise by 55% and power consumption per capita expected to increase by 15% from an already high base. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 48.5TWh in 2009 to 61.2TWh by the end of the forecast period, resulting in a broadly balanced market that, at times of peak demand, will struggle to provide adequate supply without imports - assuming 5.0% annual growth in electricity generation.

Between 2009 and 2019 we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti electricity generation of 70.2%, which is among the highest in the MEA region. This equates to 29.5% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 31.4% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 38.2% in 2009-2014 to 38.9%, representing 92.0% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 70.2% between 2009 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Kuwait Power Business Environment SWOT
• Kuwait Political SWOT
• Kuwait Economic SWOT
• Industry Overview
• Global
• Middle East and Africa
• Market Overview
• Primary Energy Demand
• Power Generation
• Power Consumption
• Regulation and Competition
• Pricing
• Power Transmission
• Business Environment
• Middle East and Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
• Kuwait's Power Rating
• Legal Framework
• Infrastructure
• Labour Force
• Foreign Investment Policy
• Tax Regime
• Security Risk
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Kuwait's Power Outlook
• Generation
• Gas-Fired
• Oil-Fired
• Others
• Renewable Energy
• Power Costs
• Transmission
• Assumptions and Methodology
• Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
• Long-Term Power Outlook
• Macroeconomic Outlook
• Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
• Global Snapshot
• Regional Outlook
• Kuwait Country Overview
• Methodology and Risks to Forecasts
• Competitive Landscape
• Country Snapshot: Kuwait Demographic Data
• Section 1: Population
• Section 2: Education and Healthcare
• Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
• Methodology
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
• Power Industry
• Cross Checks
• Sources
• List of Tables
  • Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
  • Table: Middle East/Africa Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
  • Table: Kuwait's Power Costs, 2007-2014
  • Table: Kuwait's Power Sector, 2007-2014
  • Table: Kuwait's Thermal Power, 2007-2014
  • Table: Kuwait - Economic Activity, 2006-2013
  • Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  • Table: Middle East and Africa Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
  • Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  • Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
  • Table: Education, 2002-2005
  • Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
  • Table: Employment Indicators, 1997-2006
  • Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012