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Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q3
2012

  • Publication Date:June 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:66
  • ISBN:1748-4227

Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

BMI View: Petrochemicals and refining remain the lifeblood of Singapore, with strong regional demand growth meaning there is potential for capacity expansion - although investment in countries such as China and Vietnam has led to increasingly fierce competition. Growing gas demand means liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are needed to augment pipeline volumes from Indonesia and Malaysia.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Singaporean Oil and Gas sector are:

  • Singapore's first LNG import terminal, expected ready in early 2013, will be expanded to ensure it can meet all of the island-state's gas demand, raising the possibility that existing pipeline gas supply contracts with Malaysia and Indonesia may not be renewed. Chee Hong Tat, the chief executive of Singapore's Energy Market Authority (EMA), told an industry conference on March 5 2012 that the government would 'ensure sufficient capacity to import LNG to meet all of [Singapore's] gas demand.'
  • Singapore imports all of its natural gas, which is mainly used for power generation and petrochemical production, exclusively via pipelines. In 2011, Singapore consumed an estimated 8.8bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas - a rise of almost 500% since 2000. Gas use is rising rapidly, as the government promotes policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide and sulphur emissions, ensuring energy security, and promoting the country as a regional hub for an integrated gas pipeline network. Our forecast is for gas consumption to reach at least 12.5bcm in 2016, rising further to 17.9bcm by 2021.
  • Singapore's first SGD1.5bn (US$1.05bn) LNG terminal, scheduled to come onstream in 2013, will have an initial capacity of 3.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) - equivalent to 4.8bcm of gas. Construction of the terminal began in March 2010. Capacity could be expanded further to 6mn tpa and ultimately to 10mn tpa (13.7bcm).
  • Singapore has been experiencing steady growth in demand for oil, tracking both the local and regional economy. Throughput in Singapore's refining system should rise in line with regional demand. Beyond 2012, annual oil demand growth is likely to average 2.5-3.0% through to 2021. This implies demand rising from an estimated 1.11mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to around 1.46mn b/d in 2021 - all met by imports.
  • As demand increases in Asia, the government has stated it will promote long-term growth in refining capacity in order to maintain its position as a leading exporter and regional trading hub. Furthermore, naphtha demand (for petrochemicals production) and the resumption of regional oil consumption growth point to a rise in refining capacity over the long term.
  • Singapore's crude oil import bill is expected to rise from an estimated US$43.1bn in 2011 to US$46.1bn in 2016, before reaching US$51.1bn by 2021. The cost of gas imports in 2012 is estimated at US$5.2bn and is expected to rise to US$8.6bn by 2021. Combined crude oil and natural gas import costs look set to reach US$52.2bn by 2016 and US$59.8bn by 2021.At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013.
  • BMI Industry View
  • SWOT Analysis
  • Singapore Oil and Gas SWOT
  • Global Energy Market Outlook
    • Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
    • Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
  • Regional Energy Market Outlook
  • Industry Forecast Scenario
    • Table: Singapore Oil & Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
    • Table: Singapore Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
  • Oil And Gas Reserves
  • Oil Supply And Demand
  • Gas Supply And Demand
  • LNG
  • Refining And Oil Products Trade
  • Revenues/Import Costs
  • Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
  • Oil And Gas Infrastructure
  • Oil Refineries
    • Table: Refineries In Singapore
  • Service Stations
  • Oil Storage Facilities
  • Oil Terminals/Ports
  • LNG Terminals
  • Gas Pipelines
  • Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
    • Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
    • Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
  • Singapore Upstream Rating - Overview
  • Singapore Upstream Rating - Rewards
  • Singapore Upstream Rating - Risks
  • Singapore Downstream Rating - Overview
  • Competitive Landscape
  • Executive Summary
    • Table: Key Players - Singapore Oil And Gas Sector
  • Overview/State Role
  • Government Policy
  • International Energy Relations
    • Table: Key Downstream Players
  • Company Monitor
  • Singapore Petroleum Company
  • Chevron
  • ExxonMobil Singapore
  • Royal Dutch Shell
  • BG Group - Summary
  • Asia - Regional Appendix
    • Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
    • Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
    • Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
    • Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
    • Table: Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
    • Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
    • Table: Gas Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
    • Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
    • Table: Gas Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
    • Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
    • Table: LNG Exports Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
    • Table: LNG Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
  • Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
  • Glossary Of Terms
    • Table: Glossary of Terms
  • Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  • Ratings Overview
    • Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
  • Indicators
    • Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
    • Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology
  • BMI Methodology
  • How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
  • Energy Industry
  • Cross checks
  • Sources
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