United States Power Report Q3 2009

The new US Power Report from BMI forecasts the country will account for 57.43% of Developed Markets power generation by 2013, and will retain an electricity export capability. BMI's Developed Markets power generation estimate for 2008 is 7,443 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a decrease of 0.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,749TWh by 2013, representing an increase of 4.1%.

Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by BMI at 4,819TWh, accounting for 64.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 4,993TWh, a 3.6% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 64.4% - in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. US thermal generation in 2008 is estimated at 3,214TWh, or 66.71% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 66.21% of thermal generation.

For the US, oil is the leading fuel, accounting for 38.5% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 26.1%, coal at 24.6% and nuclear with an 8.4% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,028mn toe by 2013, representing 3.8% growth over the period. The US 2008 market share of 59.22% is set to fall to 58.88% by 2013. The 849TWh of US nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 874TWh by 2013, with its share of the Developed Markets nuclear market easing from 50.3% to 50.1% over the period.

BMI are now forecasting US real GDP growth averaging 1.38% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with the 2009 forecast being a decline of 3.3%. Population is expected to expand from 304mn to 319mn over the period with GDP per capita rising 16%, but electricity consumption per capita forecast decreasing by 3%. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 3,855TWh in 2008 to 3,923TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing surplus capacity rising from an estimated 461TWh in 2008 to 527TWh in 2013, assuming 0.3% annual growth in power production.

The volume of power generated by individual US states varies dramatically, from almost 406TWh in Texas (9.7% of the US total), to less than 6TWh (0.14%) in Vermont. The top 10 US power producers account for almost 48% of the country's total generation. The lowest level of fossil fuel use in the top 10 is registered by Illinois and New York. Both derive less than half of their power generation from coal, gas and oil. Nuclear is the dominant fuel in both cases, with Illinois relying on reactors for 47.8% of its power, while New York has 29.1% nuclear dependency. In the top 10 states, Indiana is the most fossil fuel-intensive, deriving 94% of its electricity from coal-burning facilities and a further 5% from gas-fired power stations.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• US Political SWOT
• US Economic SWOT
• Industry Overview
• Global
  • Table: Global Summary
• Developed Markets
  • Table: Developed Markets Power Generation (TWh)
  • Table: Developed Markets Thermal Power Generation (TWh)
  • Table: Developed Markets Primary Energy Demand (mn toe)
  • Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
  • Table: Developed Markets Coal Consumption (mn toe)
  • Table: Developed Markets Nuclear Energy Consumption (TWh)
• Market Overview ??