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United States Freight Transport Report Q3 2013

  • Publication Date:July 2013
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:106
  • ISBN:135018

United States Freight Transport Report Q3 2013

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI maintains its cautiously positive outlook on the US freight sector. We have downgraded our US real GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%, due mainly to base effects from late 2012, and the decision to maintain the 'sequester' cuts to federal spending. Nevertheless, our core view on the US economy is that the recovery is becoming increasingly entrenched, and that by 2014 many of the headwinds to growth will be dissipating.

We believe that US export growth will continue to outpace import growth over the next several years, narrowing the goods trade deficit both as a percentage of GDP and in nominal terms. Increased US competitiveness and reviving global demand will support US exports, while continued expansion of domestic energy production will reduce the country's sizeable energy import bill, though this will be offset somewhat by a resurgent consumer over the next few quarters, which should provide a boost to freight transport volumes. We expect US household finances to continue to improve over the medium term, supporting an uptick in consumer activity, which should support freight transport volumes. A dwindling debt burden, improving consumer sentiment and higher net worth will support an increase in real private consumption, driving real GDP growth of 2.1% this year and 2.7% in 2014.
BMI Industry View 7
Freight Transport 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Rail Freight 15
Table: Rail Freight 18
Road Freight 18
Table: Road Freight 20
Air Freight 20
Table: Air Freight 22
Inland Waterways 22
Table: Inland Waterway Freight 22
Maritime Freight 22
Table: Maritime Freight 23
Trade 24
Table: Trade Overview 24
Table: Key Trade Indicators 25
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn) 26
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn) 27
Market Overview 28
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Rail Freight 32
Company Profile 38
CSX 38
Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk Southern) 42
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway 47
UPS 52
YRC Worldwide 57
Delta Cargo 61
Political Outlook 65
Domestic Politics 65
Table: Political Overview 69
Foreign Policy 70
Long-Term Political Outlook 72
Global Industry Overview 77
Global Oil Product Price Outlook 77
Methodology 77
Crude Price Forecasts 78
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 78
Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off 78
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 82
Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone 83
Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices 87
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect 88
Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump 89
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes 89
Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand 90
Macroeconomic Forecasts 92
Macroeconomic Forecast 92
Table: US - Growth Revisions (%) 92
Demographic Forecast 101
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 102
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 103
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 104
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 104
Methodology 105
Transport Industry 106
Sources 106
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