Thailand Food and Drink Report Q3 2009

Publication Date	June 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	75
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	BMI00993

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Summary

The Thai economy will be significantly affected by the global economic slowdown, with demand for Thai exports all but seizing up and the tourism sector taking a particularly hard blow. In light of this BMI has revised down its economic growth forecast for Thailand in 2009 from 1% to -2.5%. This slowdown - and its impact on consumer confidence - is in turn likely to have a knock on effect on the country's food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors.

However, despite the gloomy outlook, Q309 has seen Thailand on the receiving end of international investment from both Japan and China. Japanese seasonings giant Ajinomoto and compatriot processed meat producer Itoham Foods unveiled plans this quarter for a new joint venture company in Thailand in order to market processed meat products in the country. Meanwhile, leading Chinese brewer Tsingtao announced plans to invest THB2bn (US$56.4mn) in a Thai brewery.

Moving to the food-processing sector some companies are remaining optimistic despite the prevailing economic conditions. Examples of such companies include Thai Union Frozen Products (TUF) who in March announced ambitious targets for FY09 expecting both revenue and net profit to climb by 10-12%, and Thailand-based leading chicken exporter Charoen Pokphand Foods (CP Foods) who in the same month announced that it also expected its 2009 sales to increase following strong results for FY08 - revenue increased 16% y-o-y and net profit was up 145% y-o-y. However, Thai President Foods does not share their confidence and announced in Q2 that it had revised its sales growth target for FY09 down from 9% to 5%. Elsewhere, in the drinks sector, Oishi Group is feeling cautious announcing that it is considering scrapping plans for its new THB1.4bn (US$39.7mn) production facility. The main driver for this decision being concern over the impact that a proposed beverage tax increase would have on sales amid the economic downturn.

Turning to the mass grocery retail sector, Q2 saw Thailand-based convenience retailer Sun 108 announce its intention to open a further 200 stores in 2009. With convenience store sales forecast to increase by 14.9% in the year, this move is not surprising. Leading retailers Tesco Lotus and CP All re-iterated again this quarter their intentions to proceed with expansion plans despite the dismal economic conditions.

Activity this quarter underlines the fact that Thailand is still an attractive investment opportunity despite the current economic situation.

Content

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Food Industry SWOT
Thailand Drink Industry SWOT
Thailand Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2009
Thailand Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
Food
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
Canned Food
Confectionery
Instant Noodles
- Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Thailand Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Agriculture
Organics
Food Processing
Trade
Dairy
Drink
Industry Forecast Scenario
Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Thailand Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
Soft Drinks
- Table: Thailand Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Thailand MGR Sales Value by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
Thailand Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Structure of Thailand's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Structure of Thailand's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value by Format (US$bn), 2001-2008
Thailand Average Sales per Outlet by Format (US$mn) - 2007
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Food and Drink
Key Players in Thailand's Food & Drink Sector, 2008
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Players in Thailand's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2008
Company Analysis
Food
Chokchai
Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF)
Thai President Foods
Drink
Thai Beverages Plc (ThaiBev)
Thai Asia Pacific Brewery (Thai APB)
Singha Corporation (formerly Boon Rawd Brewery)
Mass Grocery Retail
CP All Ltd
Carrefour
Siam FamilyMart
Tesco Lotus
Central Food Retail Company Ltd (CFR)
Appendix
Commodity Price Forecasts
Corn
- Table: Corn, 2005-2010
Soybean
- Table: Soybean, 2005-2010
Rice
- Table: Rice, 2005-2010
Wheat
- Table: Wheat, 2005-2010
Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa, 2005-2010
Coffee
- Table: Coffee, 2005-2010
Milk
- Table: Milk, 2005-2010
Sugar
- Table: Sugar, 2005-2010
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing