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Mexico Food and Drink Report Q3
2012

  • Publication Date:June 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:139
  • ISBN:1749-284X

Mexico Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Despite Mexico's continued vulnerability to external shocks, we forecast that the country's economic growth will be bolstered by solid private consumption and robust investment. As such, we maintain our above-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for 2012, and are upgrading our 2013 forecast from 3.0% to 3.9%.

On the basis of a growing population and a large number of young people (almost 55% of the population are 24 years-old or younger - one of the highest percentages for an upper-middle-income economy globally), we expect Mexican food and drink consumption to continue to deliver steady - but unspectacular - growth to 2016.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2012 per capita food consumption = +3.4%; forecast to 2016 = +11.5%
  • 2012 alcoholic drink sales = +7.5%; forecast to 2016 = +27.1%
  • 2012 soft drink sales = +5.2%; forecast to 2016 = +20.6%
  • 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +6.8%; forecast to 2016 = +26.4% Key Company Trends Mexican Confectionery Sector Attracts Interest - In early 2012, Italian confectionery giant Ferrero announced that it plans to spend US$190mn on building a new plant in Mexico. The facility will be located in the city of San José Iturbide in the state of Guanajuato and will produce the firm's Kinder and Nutella brands for both the domestic market and export to the US. Ferrero has been in Mexico since 1992 and this investment can be attributed to favourable growth rates within the confectionery sector, as well as the country's beneficial access to the large US market.

Walmex Bribery Allegations Could Hamper Sales - Mexico-based retailer Walmart de Mexico is facing an investigation by Mexico's attorney general, following allegations that employees of the Walmart subsidiary bribed local officials to ease expansion within the country. The allegations were first made in a New York Times article and threaten to disrupt the firm's rapid rate of growth. The US Department of Justice might investigate whether the firm violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and Walmart's shareholders could potentially take legal action if there are indications the company failed in its fiduciary duty and made material omissions in reporting the operations of the unit.

Key Risks To Outlook Impact From The US -. Given the importance of the country's re-export - or maquila - sector, Mexico remains highly vulnerable to external shocks. Any slowdown in the US would not only further affect Mexico's net exports, but also chip away at consumer confidence and willingness to spend.

  • BMI Industry View
  • SWOT Analysis
  • Mexico Food Industry SWOT
  • Mexico Drink Industry SWOT
  • Mexico Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
  • Business Environment
  • BMI's Core Global Industry Views
    • Table: BMI's Core Views
  • Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
    • Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q312 (out of 10)
    • Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q312
  • Mexico's Risk/Reward Ratings
  • Macroeconomic Outlook
    • Table: Mexico Economic Activity, 2011-2016
  • Industry Forecast
  • Consumer Outlook
  • Food
  • Total Food Consumption
    • Table: Mexico Food Consumption Indicators
  • Confectionery
    • Table: Confectionery Sales
  • Prepared/Canned Food
    • Table: Canned Food
    • Table: Meat
    • Table: Fish
    • Table: Oils And Fats
    • Table: Pasta
  • Dairy
    • Table: Dairy
  • Snack Foods
    • Table: Snack Foods
  • Drink
  • Hot Drinks
    • Table: Hot Drink Sales
    • Table: Hot Drinks Production And Trade
  • Alcoholic Drinks
    • Table: Overall Alcoholic Drink Sales
    • Table: Alcoholic Drinks By Subsector
  • Soft Drinks
    • Table: Soft Drink Sales
    • Table: Soft Drinks By Subsector
  • Mass Grocery Retail
    • Table: Mexico Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format
  • Trade
    • Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance
  • Food
  • Key Industry Trends And Developments
  • Mexican Confectionery Sector Attracts Interest
  • Voluntary Labelling As Government Steps Up Attack On Unhealthy Products
  • Kraft Opens Innovation Centre In Mexico
  • PepsiCo Focuses On Healthier Snacks
  • Bimbo 2011 Results Leave Room For Improvement
  • Bimbo Extends Geographical Presence
  • MegaMex Acquisition Highlights The US's Hispanic Opportunities
  • Market Overview
  • Confectionery
  • Organics
  • Prepared/Canned Food
  • Dairy
  • Meat
  • Seafood
  • Drink
  • Key Industry Trends And Developments
  • US Producers Keen to Capitalise on Growing Mexican Wine Market
  • Tequila Sector Looks to Exports
  • Coca-Cola to Invest US$1bn In Mexico In 2012
  • Coca-Cola FEMSA In Talks To Acquire Philippines Bottling Unit
  • Coca-Cola FEMSA Continuing to Drive Consolidation
  • Heineken Shows Steady 2011 But Mexico Not Yet Delivering
  • Heineken's Results Highlight EM Strength, But More Expansion Needed
  • Modelo Trumps Heineken In Mexico During 2011
  • Modelo Could Deliver Accelerated Growth If It Embraces ABI Relationship
  • Demand For Imports Prompts Mahou San-Miguel To Sign Deal With Modelo
  • Embotelladoras Arca/Grupo Continental Merger Supports Expansion
  • FEMSA Turns To Dairy As Opportunities In LatAm Soft Drinks Dry Up
  • FEMSA Moves Into Coffee Market
  • Beer Margins Could Be Hit By Antitrust Investigation
  • Market Overview
  • Hot Drinks
  • Alcoholic Drinks
  • Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
  • Mass Grocery Retail
  • Key Industry Trends And Developments
  • Walmex Bribery Allegations Could Hamper Sales
  • Mexican Supermarket Sales Showing Greater Dynamism
  • Walmex Ups Pace Of Expansion In Central America
  • Comerci To Reduce Debt
  • Oxxo And Walmex Battle For Financial Services Market
  • Chedraui Announces IPO As Expansion Opportunities Take Centre Stage
  • FEMSA To Invest In Retail Following Beer Sale
  • Market Overview
    • Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Numbers Of Outlets
    • Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format, 2002-2009 (US$bn)
    • Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value By Format, 2002-2009 (MXNbn)
    • Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format (2009)
  • Competitive Landscape
  • Consumer Share Price Analysis
  • Consumer Staple Shares Outperform Despite Weakness Of Sector
    • Table: Mexico RT Consumer Staples Index
  • Key Players
    • Table: Key Players In Mexico's Food Sector
    • Table: Key Players In Mexico's Drink Sector
    • Table: Key Players In Mexico's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
  • Company Profiles
  • Food
  • Industrias Bachoco
  • Grupo Herdez
  • Gruma
  • Grupo Bimbo
  • Drink
  • Grupo Modelo
  • Arca Continental
  • FEMSA
  • Mass Grocery Retail
  • Walmart de México (Walmex)
  • Controladora Comercial Mexicana (Comerci)
  • Soriana
  • Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
    • Table: Rewards
    • Table: Risks
  • Weighting
    • Table: Weighting
  • BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
  • Food & Drink
  • Mass Grocery Retail
  • BMI Food & Drink Methodology
  • How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
  • Sourcing
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