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United Arab Emirates Food & Drink Report Q1

  • Publication Date:November 2011
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:69
  • ISBN:1749-3048

United Arab Emirates Food & Drink Report Q1 2012

Our outlook on the UAE's food and drink sector remains very positive in light of recent developments. We recently revised up our forecast for 2011 real GDP growth to 3.3% from the previous 3.0%, which was a result of our view that the country would be among the few to actually benefit from the widespread social unrest unfolding throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at this juncture. As one of only a few states that have so far avoided large-scale demonstrations, the UAE has actually seen its risk profile improve since the start of the year. The outlook for Dubai in particular has been given a boost as a result of the 'Arab Spring', as violent unrest on the streets in Bahrain solidifies the former's reputation as a relative safe haven in a volatile region. With investors increasingly on the lookout for such safe havens, we are optimistic with our outlook for the UAE's food and drink sector.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2011 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = 4.2%; forecast to 2016 = 30.1%
  • 2011 soft drinks value sales growth = 0.1%; forecast to 2016 = 24.1%
  • 2011 mass grocery retail sales = 6.8%; forecast compound annual growth to 2015 = 38.2%

Key Company Trends

Casino Goes For Convenience - In September France-based retailer Casino's Middle East business announced plans for a pan-Gulf region expansion that will include 30 stores, with the majority being smaller convenience-type stores. Casino is looking to take advantage of the bursting of the enormous property bubble that had developed in the UAE in the years leading up to the global financial crisis. Casino's Middle East business pursued a conservative expansion policy during this time. However, with real estate prices having come down significantly, the retailer is now ready to start investing in the high-potential convenience store concept.

Coffee Retail Heating Up - The UEA's coffee retail sector is hot, with a number of recent investments. In September Canadian coffee shop Tim Hortons opened its first 'export' outlet in Dubai, its first attempt to break into a radically different market. UAE-based franchise consultant MEFranchising entered into an agreement with C House, an Italian coffee company, to commence operations in the UAE, with Gulf-wide expansions on the cards.

Risks To Outlook A key risk to our outlook is the price of oil. We are currently basing our economic forecasts on the assumption that oil reaches equilibrium around the US$90/bbl area, based on long-term supply and demand forecasts. An average price above or below this level would have positive or negative implications for growth respectively.

  • BMI Industry View
  • SWOT Analysis
  • UAE Food Industry SWOT
  • UAE Drink Industry SWOT
  • UAE Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
  • Business Environment
  • BMI's Core Global Industry Views
    • Table: Food Prices, 2010 And 2011
    • Table: BMI's Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
  • Middle East Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
    • Table: Saudi Arabia Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings - Q112
    • Table: Middle East & North Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings - Q112
  • UAE Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
  • Macroeconomic Outlook
    • Table: United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity
  • Industry Forecast Scenario
  • Consumer Outlook
  • Food
  • Food Consumption
    • Table: Food Consumption Indicators
  • Crude Soya Bean Oil
    • Table: Crude Soya Bean Oil
  • Drink
  • Soft Drinks
    • Table: Soft Drink Indicators
  • Hot Drinks
  • Mass Grocery Retail
    • Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
    • Table: Mass Grocery Retail Indicators
  • Trade
  • Food
  • Key Industry Trends And Developments
  • Western Restaurants Playing A Big Part In Casual Dining Takeoff
  • Multinational Companies Pursue Expansion Despite Downturn
  • Gulf Companies Diversifying
  • Big Duty-Free Divergence Still In Play
  • Market Overview
  • Food Production
  • Agriculture
  • Halal Food
    • Table: Muslim Populations In Select Countries
  • Drink
  • Key Industry Trends And Developments
  • Key Players Diversifying
  • Carbonates Majors Raise Prices
  • Beverage Sales Performing Well
  • Coffee Sector Attracting Investors
  • Alcohol Sales Target Transit Travellers
  • Market Overview
  • Hot Drinks
  • Soft Drinks
  • Mass Grocery Retail
  • Key Industry Trends And Developments
  • Retailers Targeting Convenience Growth
  • Duty-Free Sales Flying
  • Investment And Expansion Continues
  • Multinational Presence Growing?
  • Market Overview
    • Table: Value of Sales Per Outlet 2010 - Estimates
  • Competitive Landscape
    • Table: Key Players in the UAE's Food & Drink Sector
    • Table: Key Players in UAE's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
  • Company Monitor
  • Food
  • Unilever Middle East
  • Abu Dhabi National Foodstuff Company (Foodco)
  • Al Ain Dairy
  • Drink
  • Masafi
  • Al Ain Mineral Water Company
  • Mass Grocery Retail
  • EMKE Group (LuLu)
  • Carrefour MAF
  • Spinneys Dubai
  • BMI Food & Drink Methodology
  • Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
  • Ratings Methodology
  • Ratings Overview
  • Ratings System
  • Indicators
    • Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
    • Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
  • Weighting
    • Table: Weighting
  • BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
  • Food & Drink
  • Mass Grocery Retail
  • BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
  • How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
  • Sourcing
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