United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q4
2012

United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

While the UK labour market has proven remarkably resilient during and after the 2008-2009 recession, we expected consumer recovery in the UK to remain relatively weak in 2012. Unlike previous recessions in which a strong rebound in consumer spending restored the economy to its previous growth trajectory, the household sector is not up to the task this time around. Moreover, rising employment alongside a stagnant economy is synonymous with falling productivity, which would in turn lower the UK's longer term growth potential and threatening further development of grocery sales. Headline Industry Data (local currency)

• 2012 per capita food consumption growth = +1.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate

(CAGR) to 2016 = +2.2%.

• 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales growth = +1.2%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +1.8%.
• 2012 soft drinks value sales growth = +3.7%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +3.9%.
• 2012 mass grocery retail sales growth = +1.8%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +2.2%. Key Company Trends Heineken Strengthens Its Cider Portfolio: In June 2012, Heineken boosted its cider portfolio by acquiring Belgian producer Stassen. The firm, already the biggest cider-producer in the UK, will be looking to capitalise on growth there as well as in other European markets and North America. Morrisons Linked with Costcutter Acquisition: The July 2012 news that UK retailer Morrisons has selected the owner of convenience store operator Costcutter to manage operations at five of its distribution centres is likely to fuel speculation that a more sizeable partnership between the two businesses could be in the offing. Reports, which came after Morrisons launched its convenience store concept, M-local, have also suggested that the two held preliminary acquisition talks. Costa Coffee to Be Sold In Petrol Forecourts: In August 2012, UK-based coffee chain Costa secured a deal with UK-based forecourt operator Motor Fuel Group (MFG) under which Costa will supply its express self-serve coffee machines to MFG's 48-station network. MFG confirmed that, as part of its shop refit strategy, some 27 of its stations will start offering Costa by end-2012. Key Risks To Outlook Domestic and External Risks: On the domestic front, the UK's coalition government has recently suffered a number of embarrassing post-budget U-turns and could be losing the debate on austerity versus growth. This has propelled the opposition Labour party back into the lead in the polls and has raised the hurdle for

• BMI Industry View
• SWOT Analysis
• United Kingdom Food Industry SWOT
• United Kingdom Drink Industry SWOT
• United Kingdom Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
• Business Environment
• BMI's Core Global Industry Views
  • Table: Core Views
• Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
• UK And Germany Top BMI's Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
  • Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Subcategories, Q412 (scores out of 10)
  • Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
• United Kingdom Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
• Macroeconomic Outlook
• Economic Activity I
  • Table: United Kingdom - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
• Economic Activity II
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Consumer Outlook
• Food
• Food Consumption
  • Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Canned/Prepared Food
  • Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Confectionery
  • Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Snack Food
  • Table: Snack Foods - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
• Pasta
  • Table: Pasta - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
• Prepared Fish
  • Table: Fish - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
• Other Processed Foods
  • Table: Meat - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
  • Table: Frozen Fruit And Vegetables - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
  • Table: Oils And Fats - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
• Dairy
  • Table: Dairy - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
• Drink
• Hot Drinks
  • Table: Hot Drink Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
  • Table: Hot Drink - Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast
• Soft Drinks
  • Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Alcoholic Drinks
  • Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
• United Kingdom Food & Drink Q4
• © Business Monitor International Ltd Page
• Mass Grocery Retail
  • Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
  • Table E: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (%)
• Trade
  • Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
• Food
• Key Industry Trends And Developments
• Bright Food Continues International Push With Weetabix Stake
• United Biscuits Plans Split To Entice Bidders
• Private Equity Continues To Be Attracted To Unfashionable Food Sectors
• Müller Purchase Of Robert Wiseman Will Have Scale, Market Access In Mind
• Tate & Lyle Results Highlight Benefits Of Speciality Ingredients Focus
• Greencore Secures Uniq Acquisition But Needs To Do More
• Market Overview
• Food
• Prepared Food
• Confectionery
• Private Label
• Livestock
• Organic Food
• Drink
• Key Industry Trends And Developments
• Heineken Strengthens Its Cider Offering with Acquisition of Stassen
• Diageo Third Quarter Growth Driven By EMs
• Diageo Targeting High-End Offering with Baiju Brand
• Alcohol Pricing Legislation Remains in Spotlight
• AG Barr Posts Steady Results, Drop In PE Ratio Means Even More Attractive Acquisition Target
• Heineken Faces Challenges Of Leaseholder Pub Model
• Stevia's EU Approval Likely To Spur Product Development
• Code Of Practice For Beleaguered Leased Pub Sector
• Market Overview
• Soft Drinks
• Alcoholic Drinks
• Beer
• Spirits
• Alcohol On-Trade
• Mass Grocery Retail
• Key Industry Trends And Developments
• Morrisons Linked with Costcutter Acquisition
• Sainsbury's Outperforms But No Room For Complacency
• Tesco Facing Challenge To Regain Market Confidence Following £1bn Investment Plan
• Iceland Fails To Attract Major Retailers
• Market Overview
• Online Retailing
  • Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
  • Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
  • Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market Sales Value By Format (GBPbn)
  • Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format (2011)
• United Kingdom Food & Drink Q4
• © Business Monitor International Ltd Page
• Competitive Landscape
• Key Players
• Key Players in the UK's Food Sector
• Key Players in the UK's Drink Sector
• Key Players in the UK's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
• Company Monitor
• Food
• Associated British Foods
• Unilever
• Dairy Crest Group
• Cadbury (Kraft)
• Premier Foods
• Drink
• Diageo
• Mass Grocery Retail
• Tesco
• J Sainsbury
• Asda
• BMI Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  • Table: Rewards
  • Table: Risks
• Weighting
  • Table: Weighting
• BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
• Food & Drink
• Mass Grocery Retail
• BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
• Sourcing
• Demographic Outlook
  • Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  • Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  • Table: The United Kingdom's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  • Table: The United Kingdom's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020