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Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

  • Publication Date:June 2013
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:94
  • ISBN:203558

Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

We hold a positive outlook on the Malaysian agriculture sector owing to the consistent support from the
government in developing its downstream capabilities through public-private partnerships. This boosts
the overall value of the country's agriculture industry, especially in the palm oil and cocoa sectors. That
said, significant risks, such as a labour shortage and curbs on expansion of palm plantations, will
continue to pose a threat to the long-term growth prospects of the industry. Further development of East
Malaysia, namely in the states of Sabah and Sarawak, also is likely to buoy growth in the sector.
Key Forecasts
• Palm oil production growth to 2016/17: 9.7% to 20.6mn tonnes. Growth will be supported as
companies replant mature estates and yields improve on the back of better technology.
• Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 13.3% to 1.4mn tonnes. More investment in the sector
as outlined in the 10th Malaysia Economic Plan is expected to drive growth.
• Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 107.3% to 10,100 tonnes. Cocoa yields on Peninsular
Malaysia (the second largest cocoa-producing region behind Sabah) have increased due to the
Malaysian Cocoa Board's distribution of high yielding seeds and incentive programmes for
farmers to switch to cocoa.
• 2013 BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to
US$25.3bn (contributes 8.2% of GDP)
• 2013 real GDP growth: 4.6% (down from 5.6% in 2012, forecast to average 4.5% from 2012 to
2017).
• 2013 consumer price inflation: 1.9% (up from 1.7% in 2012, forecast to average 2.1% from
2012 to 2017).
• 2013 central bank policy rate: 3.0% average (same as 2012, forecast to average 3.3% from
2012 to 2017).
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Agricultural SWOT 7
Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Palm Oil Outlook 9
Table: Malaysia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 10
Table: Winners & Losers Of Indonesia's New Palm Oil Tax Structure 12
Table: Malaysia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 12
Sugar Outlook 13
Table: Malaysia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 14
Table: Malaysia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 16
Cocoa Outlook 17
Table: Malaysia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 18
Table: Malaysia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 20
Livestock Outlook 21
Table: Malaysia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 22
Table: Malaysia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 22
Table: Malaysia Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 22
Table: Malaysia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 23
Table: Malaysia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 23
Table: Malaysia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 23
Commodities Price Analysis 25
Monthly Softs Strategy 25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 35
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 36
Monthly Grains Strategy 37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 44
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 45
Upstream Analysis 46
Asia GM Outlook 46
Table: Philippines Corn Estimates 50
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops 51
Asia Machinery Outlook 52
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 58
Table: Global Benchmark Fertiliser Prices (US$/Tonne FOB, Reported Prices At The End Of Quarter) 60
Downstream Analysis 63
Food 63
Food Consumption 63
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 64
Confectionery 64
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 65
Fish 66
Table: Fish Production, Consumption & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 66
Oils And Fats 67
Table: Oils & Fats 67
Dairy 69
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 69
Drink 71
Hot Drinks 71
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 71
Alcoholic Drinks 72
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 74
Soft Drinks 74
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 76
Mass Grocery Retail 78
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 80
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type, Historical Data & Forecast (%) 80
Competitive Landscape 85
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 85
Demographic Forecast 87
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 88
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89
Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 90
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 90
Methodology 91
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 91
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