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Australia Agribusiness Report Q1
2012

  • Publication Date:January 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:62
  • ISBN:2040-0314

Australia Agribusiness Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Strong production across the different agricultural sectors should make for a good year for Australian agriculture exporters; we expect the highest growth in wheat and livestock output in 2011/12. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the total value of Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports is projected to reach AUD38.4bn (US$38.0) in 2011/12, up 6.3% from AUD36.1bn in 2010/11.This is reinforced by rural confidence having rebounded from the lowest level in two years, according to a survey conducted by Rabobank completed in November 2011. For all agriculture segments except dairy, there was an improvement in expectations for the next quarter, with positive sentiment increasing from 18% to 24%, up from the previous quarter.

Key Forecasts

  • Beef production growth to 2015/16: 5.7% to 2.3mn tonnes. We expect Australia to remain a strong exporter of the meat over the long term.
  • Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 1.2% to 28.2mn tonnes. Australia will remain an important player in the wheat market as the fourth largest exporter in the world.
  • Sugar production to 2015/16: 48.1% to 5.3mn tonnes. We expect strong production on the back of industry consolidation, which should spur economies of scale and boost output.
  • 2012 real GDP growth: 1.6% (down from 1.8% in 2011; predicted to average 2.5% from 2011 to 2016).
  • 2012 central bank policy rate (average): 3.5% (Down from 4.75% in 2011).

Industry Developments

2011 has been a year of significant consolidation in the Australian sugar industry, and BMI believes that this will trend will remain in play over the medium term. The most recent development is a deal between Australia's largest sugar miller Sucrogen, which is owned by Singapore-based Wilmar, and Proserpine Cooperative Sugar Milling Association, the country's fifth largest sugar company. After receiving approval from the Queensland Supreme Court on December 8 to permit Sucrogen to purchase AUD65mn in debt owned by Proserpine, a majority of Proserpine creditors voted in favour of Sucrogen's offer, comprising an AUD120mn headline price plus working capital and cost adjustments. In effect, this also translates into a rejection of a counter-offer of AUD128mn by the Chinese state-owned agribusiness firm Cofco.

A vote representing about 60% of Australia's pork producers agreed on a levy increase from AUD1.35 to AUD2.25 per pig slaughtered to be paid to Australian Pork Limited (APL). The increase will occur over three tranches starting in July 2012 and will end in July 2016. The funds will be channelled to the APL to undertake marketing, research and development, and policy activities on behalf of the industry. As there has not been a levy increase since 1994, we believe that this investment into improving the industry is much needed and will help boost production methods in the pork sector, which has largely been overshadowed by the more established beef sector.

With 26 sugar factories in the country owned by 10 milling groups, BMI believes that consolidation will remain a dominant theme of the Australian sugar industry in the coming years. In particular, we foresee consolidation spearheaded by foreign companies rather than domestic firms as the industry is highly export oriented. Notably, we highlight that Cofco, which recently successfully bid for Tully Sugar, has expressed continued interest in the Australian sugar sector, and we expect to see activity to continue in the sector throughout 2012.

  • Executive Summary
  • SWOT Analysis
  • Australia Agricultural SWOT
  • Australia Political SWOT
  • Australia Economic SWOT
  • Australia Business Environment SWOT
  • Supply Demand Analysis
  • Australia Grain Outlook
    • Table: Australia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Corn Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Barley Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
    • Table: Australia Corn Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
    • Table: Australia Barley Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
  • Australian Sugar Outlook
    • Table: Australia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
  • Australia Dairy Outlook
    • Table: Australia Milk Production & Consumption, 2012 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Butter Production & Consumption, 2012 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2012 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Milk Production & Consumption, 2008 - 2013
    • Table: Australia Butter Production & Consumption, 2008 - 2013
    • Table: Australia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008 - 2013
    • Table: Australia Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption, 2008 - 2013
  • Australia Livestock Outlook
    • Table: Australia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Pork Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
    • Table: Australia Pork Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
    • Table: Australia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
  • Australia Rice Outlook
    • Table: Australia Rice Production & Consumption, 2011 - 2016
    • Table: Australia Rice Production & Consumption, 2007 - 2012
  • Commodity Price Analysis
  • Monthly Grains Update
  • Corn
  • Rice
  • Soybean
  • Wheat
  • Monthly Softs Update
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Palm Oil
  • Australia Agribusiness Report Q1
  • © Business Monitor International Ltd Page
  • Sugar
  • Industry Forecast Scenario
  • Consumer Outlook
  • Food
  • Food Consumption
    • Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009 - 2016
  • Confectionery
    • Table: Food Sub-Sector Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009 - 2016
    • Table: Chocolate
    • Table: Sugar
  • Canned Food
    • Table: Food sub-sector indicators -- Historical Data & Forecastsk, 2009 - 2016
  • Trade
    • Table: Australia Food & Drink Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009 - 2016
  • Functional Food
    • Table: Functional Food
  • Mass Grocery Retail
    • Table: Australia MGR Sales By Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009 - 2016
  • Economic Analysis - GDP Beat Shows Unhealthy Reliance On Resource Sector
  • Macroeconomic Forecast
    • Table: Australia - Economic Activity, 2008 - 2015
  • Industry Trend Analysis
  • Risk 1: Strong Aussie Dollar
  • BMI Forecast Modelling
  • How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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