- PDF: Immediate delivery
Central America Agribusiness Report Q1
2013
- Product Code:BMI07603
- Publication Date:January 2013
- Publisher:Business Monitor
- Product Type: Report
- Pages:123
Central America Agribusiness Report Q1 2013
The Central America coffee sector is set to see strong production in 2012/13 on the back of large plantings and better investment capacity
However, we believe low global prices could discourage production in the coming years, putting downside risks to the development of the sector in the medium term
The region is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period
That said, the region is expected to remain self sufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports, with the industry having potential to attract investment in over the medium term
- Coffee production growth to 2016/17: 24.1% to 16.2mn bags
As the region becomes more attractive to investors, we expect the coffee sector to see increased export opportunities
That said, there are major downside risks to this view, as the region will continue to be exposed to security risks, disease outbreaks and adverse weather patterns
- Corn consumption growth to 2016/17: 11.1% to 6.8mn tonnes
Demand growth for corn will far outpace production in Central America, affecting prices and keeping the area import-dependent for its grain needs
- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 11.3% to 5.0mn tonnes
Most countries in the region will continue to run a small production surplus out to 2016/17, and development of the export industry could present upside risks to our production forecasts over the long term
- 2013 real GDP growth: 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y)
Down from 4.5% in 2012 and predicted to average 4.1% over 2012-2017
- Consumer price inflation: 5.2% y-o-y in 2013
Up from 4.8% in 2012 and predicted to average 5.1 %over 2012-2017
Industry Outlook Over the long term, we could see consolidation in the coffee industry and private investment help to close the gap between Central America and the rest of South America
Indeed, yield growth in other major producers in South America will eventually reach its limit, while land constraints will restrict plantings
As a result, investors could turn towards more frontier markets with higher risk but potential for higher returns, especially as we are positive about the domestic consumer story in Central America
Panama has agreed a free trade agreement with the US, granting the North American country free access to export high quality beef cuts
For all other beef muscle cuts, Panama's import duties fall from 30% to zero, and beef variety meat sees duties fall from 15% to zero
Pork duties have been eliminated, too, and a duty-free tariff quota begins at 1,600 tonnes
We believe this could discourage production in the Central American country, as local producers would very likely not be competitive enough to face increasing imports from the US
Our view for the continued expansion of sugar production in the region over the forecast period is linked to our view that sugar prices have bottomed
Even though we do not see prices coming back to their previous peaks, some more upside in the short term - especially during the planting season - and still-elevated prices by historical standards will be sufficient to boost production incentives in the region
Central American farmers tend to be more reliant on global prices than large sugar conglomerates in Brazil.
- BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
- SWOT
- Agribusiness SWOT Analysis
- Industry Forecast
- Central America Livestock Outlook
- Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Guatemala Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Central America Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Central America Beef Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Central America Sugar Outlook
- Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Central America Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Central America Coffee Outlook
- Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Central America Coffee Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Central America Grains Outlook
- Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Central America Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Strategy
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Monthly Softs Strategy
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Upstream Analysis
- Americas Machinery Outlook
- Americas Fertiliser Outlook
- Americas GM Outlook
- Downstream Analysis
- Industry Forecast - Food
- Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador- Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade, 2010-2017
- Industry Forecast - Drink
- Table: Guatemala - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Honduras - Coffee Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Guatemala - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Honduras - Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Guatemala - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Soft Drinks Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Honduras - Soft Drink Volume Sales, 2010-2017
- Industry Forecast - Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %
- Table: Guatemala - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Honduras - Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: Guatemala - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Costa Rica - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: El Salvador - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Honduras - Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Demographic Forecast
- Belize
- Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Costa Rica
- Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- El Salvador
- Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Guatemala
- Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Honduras
- Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Nicaragua
- Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Panama
- Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
