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United States Agribusiness Report Q3 2013

  • Publication Date:July 2013
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:165
  • ISBN:135365

United States Agribusiness Report Q3 2013


Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: In general we expect a rebound in US grain production for the 2013/14 season, which
underpins our view of lower average prices over the coming months. We forecast moderate production
growth over the long term. We believe soybean production will outperform corn over the coming years, as
we expect the soybean/corn ratio to move more to soybean in the coming years. We also expect the livestock
sector to show improvement in the coming years as grain prices fall, with the poultry market outperforming.
Although we are maintaining our forecasts for now, the new farm bill that is making its way through the US
Congress could have considerable effects on grain and dairy prices depending on the final draft. Within the
dairy segment, we forecast the US to remain a net cheese exporter over the coming years after being a net
importer for several decades.

Key Trends

- Soybean production growth to 2016/17: 14.2% to 94.8mn tonnes. This is mainly owing to the increase
in poultry production over the long term. However, we have revised our long-term figures down as we do
not see continued increases in the area dedicated to soybean given our view of lower average prices in the
medium term.
- Corn consumption growth to 2017: 17% to 304.1mn tonnes. This will be driven by increases in
ethanol production and an increase in feed use in the later years of our forecast period as the livestock
sector picks up.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 20.1% to 23.1mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest
poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging
markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 2.3% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in 2012; predicted to average 2.4% from
2012 until 2017.
- Consumer price inflation: 2.0% ave in 2013, same as 2012.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Business Environment 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 12
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 22
Dairy Outlook 23
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 24
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 25
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 25
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 33
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 33
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 33
Soybean Outlook 34
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 35
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 41
Sugar Outlook 41
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 42
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 45
Livestock Outlook 45
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 46
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 47
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 47
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 55
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 55
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 55
Cotton Outlook 56
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 57
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (US$) 57
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 67
Commodities Price Analysis 69
Monthly Grains Strategy 69
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 77
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 78
Monthly Softs Strategy 78
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 87
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 88
Upstream Analysis 89
Americas GM Outlook 89
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 93
Americas Machinery Outlook 99
Downstream Analysis 106
Food 106
Food Consumption 106
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2017 107
Confectionery 107
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 108
Canned Food 108
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 109
Dairy 109
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 110
Drink 112
Alcoholic Drinks 112
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017 115
Soft Drinks 115
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017 116
Hot Drinks 117
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017 118
Mass Grocery Retail 118
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017 119
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type 119
Regional Overview 120
Regional Overview - Americas 120
Competitive Landscape 127
Table: Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 127
Company Profile 128
Tyson Foods 128
Table: Tyson Foods Financial Data (US$mn) 137
Monsanto Incorporated 138
Table: Monsanto Financial Results (US$mn) 148
Smithfield Foods 148
Table: Financial Highlights 158
Demographic Forecast 159
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 160
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 161
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 162
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 162
Methodology 163
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