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Ghana Agribusiness Report Q3
- Publication Date:April 2012
- Publisher:Business Monitor
- Product Type: Report
Ghana Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
BMI View: The cocoa sector will remain Ghana's most important agriculture sector over the coming years. High prices in previous years have prompted several government problems to increase output, and although the sector will remain a global leader, it will unlikely surpass Côte d'Ivoire as the world's largest producer before the end of our current forecast period. In terms of livestock, the poultry sector will be the largest by far in terms of consumption. However, the sector currently requires imports to meet domestic demand, and we do not expect a significant change in this regard. The country will also require imports of grains to meet demand, although at this point the sector is largely self-sufficient in terms of corn.
- Cocoa Production Growth to 2015/16: 9.7% to reach 1.1mn tonnes. Yield gains are likely to continue. Rising GDP should allow easier credit access to cocoa farmers wanting to expand production. This growth, combined with the ageing stock in Côte d'Ivoire, has some optimistic observers predicting that Ghana could overtake Côte d'Ivoire as the world's largest cocoa producer and exporter within a few years.
- Corn Production Growth to 2015/16: 16.9% to 1.96mn tonnes. Over the forecast period, we expect investment to encourage more modern, mechanised corn plantations to boost yields. Rising demand for corn as food and as poultry feed will also encourage production.
- 2012 Real GDP Growth: 6.6% (down from 14.% in 2011; predicted to average 8.9% from now until 2016).
- 2012 Central Bank Policy Rate: 14.5% eop in 2012 (up from 12.5% in 2011).
- 2012 Consumer Price Index (avg): 11.5% (up from 8.7% in 2011)
We maintain our forecast for Ghana cocoa production to be strong in 2011/12 as the country's harvest is showing signs of good progress. In fact, cocoa purchases are up 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 681,000 tonnes since the beginning of the season. Thus, we maintain our forecast for the country's cocoa output to reach 912,600 tonnes in 2011/12, 50.2% higher than the 10-year average of 607,600 tonnes. This will come as the country's cocoa authority (COCOBOD) decided to increase its set price paid to farmers from GHS3,200/ tonne (GBP1,183.9/tonne) to GHS3,216/tonne (GBP1,189.8/tonne). Also, weather conditions in the country have so far been favourable to the good development of the crop. Finally, the government's sponsored tree rehabilitation programs and free distribution of seeds should also boost output for the year.
Ghana has a virtually non-existent wheat sector, with virtually all domestic consumption satisfied by imports. Canada is the largest supplier, along with the EU-27 and Argentina. Given the high price of imports, domestic Ghanaian wheat prices have increased by almost 15% to GHS65/50kg bag for the 2010/11 season. Ghanaian per capita wheat consumption is around 12.5kg per year and most of it comes from wheat flour used in bread making, with the rest utilised for pastries. Wheat imports for 2011/12 are forecast to be slightly lower year-on-year as the high cost of hard wheat is discouraging consumption and domestic ending stock levels prove sufficient for government authorities. Hard wheat accounts for around 70% of total imports. Because of its relative high costs, Ghanaian millers often blend hard and soft wheat varieties together (with varying proportions) to reduce costs.
- BMI Industry View
- SWOT Analysis
- Ghana Agriculture SWOT
- Ghana Political SWOT
- Canada Economic SWOT
- Canada Business Environment SWOT
- Supply Demand Analysis
- Ghana Livestock Outlook
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Ghana Grains Outlook
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Ghana Cocoa Outlook
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Palm Oil
- Downstream Analysis
- Food Consumption
- Table :Food Consumption Indicators -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Fish, 2009-2016
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales -Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Economic Analysis
- Table: Ghana - Economic Activity
- Industry Trend Analysis
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- Global Food & Drink View
- Food & Drink Roundup Q112: Core Views
- Table: Core Views
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts