Poland Agribusiness Report

This report analyses supply and demand in Poland's changing dairy, grain, rice, sugar and livestock sectors. It considers recent developments and looks at how production levels and consumption are likely to play out to the end of the forecast period in 2013. About 77% of the agricultural land is arable, 2% is covered by orchards and about 20% is permanent pasture.

Poland is one of the EU's most important agricultural product providers. It is a significant producer of wheat, sugar beet, pork, poultry and milk, and, although only touched upon by this report, it is one of the leading EU suppliers of rye, triticale, oats, rape, brassicas, potatoes, carrots, onions, apples and cherries.

In the report BMI forecasts production increases for wheat, barley, corn, sugarbeet, milk, cheese, poultry, pork and beef by the end of the forecast period.

Poland is generally a net exporter of meat and dairy products. However, the situation is more difficult this year. According to the Foundation of Assistance Programmes for Agriculture in Poland, as cited by Rzeczpospolita, the monetary value of Polish milk products is expected to drop by 20% in 2009. Earnings from exports of dairy products (excluding ice cream) registered a 30% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline to EUR336mn during the first five months of 2009, attributed to low prices and lack of demand in global markets.

Agri-food exports have increased considerably in recent years, in 2008 the value of foreign sales reached EUR11.3bn, up 12.1% compared to the year before (Ministry of Agriculture). Most of the exports, worth EUR8.5bn, went to the EU-27, Germany being the biggest market. The value of imported agri-food products in 2008 was EUR9.8bn, up 21.7% on 2007.

Since joining the EU Poland's agriculture industry has been, and is still being, forced into significant change in order to be competitive. In an effort to encourage consolidation of the fragmented farming system; to help bring farms and processing units up to EU production, health and safety standards, and to help give impetus to the food industry, the EU, in conjunction with the national government, has handed over billions of euros in subsidies and other types of financial support. Additional support is provided by the World Bank.

Slowly this seems to be working and despite inevitable fluctuations in market conditions for certain products (the pig industry has suffered in the recent EU pig crisis), farms are generally becoming more productive, farmers are generally becoming richer and the food industry is developing well. Infact, regarding the pig industry, figures from Eurostat suggest a growth in pig slaughterings this year from historic lows at the end of 2008.

All this has helped expand the wider Polish economy, which in recent years has seen a significant improvement in GDP and consumer spending power (although the recession is now taking toll - in May 2009 the IMF approved a one year US$20.58bn arrangement for Poland under the Flexible Credit Line).

The westernisation of consumer food preferences is providing further opportunities for agricultural producers and processors and the winners will be those who can adapt best. Poland's encouragement of foreign investment in the food industry is helping to meet shifting consumer demands and drive the industry forward. Denmark's Arla Foods operates two dairies in Goscino and Warsaw which have EU export licences. French Groupe Danone is the largest supplier of fresh dairy products in Poland, reporting a 32.6% market share in value terms. To help improve the poor quality of locally sourced raw milk the company also supplies animal feed to producers, the cost of which is deducted from receipts paid to producers for the milk supplied.

Significant opportunities still remain in some sectors such as organic production, which could particularly suit many of Poland's small farms. Eurostat figures suggest that although the conversion to organic is slow some progress is being made. Fully converted crop area rose from 37,724 hectares (ha) in 2004 to 178,670ha in 2008. Crop area under conversion rose from 45,006ha in 2004 to 135,274ha in 2008.

Conversely, a greater acceptance of genetically modified (GM) organisms could help crop and livestock producers.

In response to the EU Renewable Energy Directive which stipulates that by 2020 at least 10% of fuel used in transport will be from biofuel or electric power, there is some excitement about the possible benefits of domestic biofuel production for crop and sugar beet growers. However, it remains to be seen how this plays out. According to a Reuters report Poland is the fourth biggest EU producer of bio-ethanol, though a long way behind France, Germany and Spain.

The current economic downturn has of course threatened the profitability of Poland's agricultural sector, as it has most others around the world.