- PDF: Immediate delivery
South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q4
2012
- Product Code:BMI08594
- Publication Date:July 2012
- Publisher:Business Monitor
- Product Type: Report
- Pages:85
- ISBN:2049-422X
South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
BMI View: We have updated some of our forecasts from the previous South West Africa quarterly report, specifically revising down corn production projections for Angola and Zambia. Overall, we expect relatively little change in the grain sector for these countries, as the key importers and exporters will remain that way over the coming seasons. Food security in the region is and should remain largely stable in H212, aside from pockets of poor or rural households that will suffer from localised shortages, mainly a result of bad weather. In terms of the sugar sector, we believe Zambia offers the best opportunities. Indeed, Zambian producers (particularly Illovo Sugar) have expanded production for the 2011/12 season owing to high demand from the region and relatively high sugar prices. Sugar production in the rest of the region is expected to be comparatively insignificant. Key Views Zambian corn production growth to 2015/16: 20.5% to 3.4mn tonnes. Government support and the expectation of high corn prices will very likely lead to a continued rise in corn plantings in the coming years. Zambian sugar production growth to 2015/16: 13.2% to 509,400 tonnes. Increased presence of the private sector has improved production methods and increased the use of fertilisers. The Zambian government has also recently increased its support to the agriculture sector in order to lessen the country's dependence on the mining sector. 2012 regional average real GDP growth: 7.2% (up from 5.2% in 2011). Average consumer price inflation: 7.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2012 (down from 8.4% y-o-y in 2011). Industry Outlook Despite revising down our forecasts for Angolan and Zambian grain production, BMI believes that food security in South West Africa will be fairly stable in H212, with increases in local prices stemming from higher import costs for major importers. Rains have generally been favourable in many areas, with Zambia seeing the most abundant rains and Namibia seeing the worst. Overall, grains production is expected to come in slightly less y-o-y in 2011/12 (largely due to the downgrades to Zambia and Angola). Zambia is likely to remain a key exporter in the region, and Namibia, Angola and Botswana are expected to remain net importers for the foreseeable future. Although production prospects have deteriorated in Angola, this is being met with a decline in corn consumption. Lower availability of corn, as well as reduced income from farm employees, contributes to our forecast decline. South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 The recent US$650mn investment by Marubeni in the construction of a sugar and ethanol plant in Angola is likely to boost sugar and ethanol production in the long term. The factory will be built in the Cunene region in the south of the country and will have an annual production capacity of 400,000 tonnes of sugar and 40mn litres of ethanol. We forecast the country to produce 75,000 tonnes of sugar in 2011/12 and to import 165,000 tonnes in order to accommodate demand of 250,000 tonnes. Marubeni's factory would provide a significant boost to domestic production and, if used at full capacity, could make the country fully self-sufficient. We also see the government's effort to increase private investment in the sugar sector as positive for the diversification of the economy away from oil exploration. Currently, 44.2% of Angolan GDP comes from mining and oil exploration. The government announced recently that it would invest US$6bn in the agricultural sector in order to increase its competitiveness and to reduce dependence on the oil sector. Moreover, the government's plan to increase sugar cane planting to 500,000 hectares by the end of our forecast period in 2016 is likely to support ethanol production- CONTENTS
- Executive Summary
- South West Africa
- SWOT Analysis
- South West Africa Agriculture SWOT
- Supply & Demand Analysis
- South West Africa Grains Outlook
- Table: Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia - Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia - Corn Production & Consumption, 2005-2010
- South West Africa Sugar Outlook
- Table: Zambia, Angola - Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Zambia, Angola - Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Update
- Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions
- Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further
- Soybean: South America In The Spotlight
- Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa: Looking Supported
- Coffee: Supported In Short Term
- Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support
- Sugar: Searching For Support
- Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
- Upstream Analysis
- Africa GM Seeds Outlook
- Select Countries - Global Rank By Corn Yields In 2011/12
- EMEA Machinery Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
- Downstream Analysis
- Angola
- Food
- Table: Angola - Food Consumption
- Drink
- Table: Angola - Soft Drinks
- Table: Angola - Alcoholic Drinks
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Angola - Mass Grocery Retail Sales
- Botswana
- Food
- Table: Botswana - Food Consumption
- Drink
- Table: Botswana - Soft Drinks
- South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q4
- © Business Monitor International Ltd Page
- Table: Botswana - Alcoholic Drinks
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Botswana - Mass Grocery Retail Sales
- Namibia
- Food
- Table: Namibia - Food Consumption
- Drink
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Namibia - Mass Grocery Retail
- Zambia
- Food
- Table: Zambia - Food Consumption
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Zambia - Mass Grocery Retail
- Country Snapshot
- Angola
- Table: Angola - Population By Age Group, '000
- Table: Angola - Population By Age Group, % Of Total
- Table: Angola - Key Population Ratios
- Table: Angola - Rural & Urban Population
- Botswana
- Table: Botswana - Population By Age Group, '000
- Table: Botswana - Population By Age Group, % Of Total
- Table: Botswana - Key Population Ratios
- Table: Botswana - Rural & Urban Population
- Namibia
- Table: Namibia - Population By Age Group, '000
- Table: Namibia - Population By Age Group, % Of Total
- Table: Namibia - Key Population Ratios
- Table: Namibia - Rural & Urban Population
- Zambia
- Table: Zambia - Population By Age Group, '000
- Table: Zambia - Population By Age Group, % Of Total
- Table: Zambia - Key Population Ratios
- Table: Zambia - Rural & Urban Population
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
