India Agribusiness Report Q4 2009

At the start of July, the annual monsoon finally reached all areas of the country. The poor rains in June sparked fears that the coming year's agricultural production could be blighted by water shortages. Rainfall in June was 46% down on normal levels according to the India Meteorological Department. The monsoon rains also failed to reach important agricultural areas during the first month of the monsoon. Despite the improved picture at the start of July, there is still a risk that agriculture could suffer if the rains do not continue to come. The shortfall in June has left irrigation systems lower than would be hoped for the time of year. Rain fed agriculture will be even more badly affected.

While the health of agriculture in India will always be affected by the monsoon, the lack of development in the sector makes it far more vulnerable to fluctuations than a more modern agricultural sector would be. A high proportion of Indian agriculture is rain fed with no or very rudimentary irrigation. There are fears that climate change could make weather patterns even less predictable then they are currently. With India's growing and increasingly wealthier population, demand for food is only going to increase. Poor harvests owing to erratic weather would see prices rise and low-income consumers pushed back (or further) into poverty. Improvement in agricultural infrastructure is vital to protect the majority of the population still reliant on the land for their income as well as to provide reliable and affordable food supplies to the growing urban population.

There are now hopes that following the Congress Party's unexpectedly strong victory in the general election of May 2009 more funding will be allocated to improving rural infrastructure - the budget, unveiled at the beginning of July, set out the target of agricluture achieving a 4% yearly growth rate. The collapse of sugar production this year to a forecast 14.96mn tonnes from 28.63mn tonnes has fuelled concerns over the security of agricultural production.

Aside from the expected collapse in sugar production, major crops are on for a good year in 2009. Rice and wheat production are both high for the second year in a row. Government stocks of both grains are now overflowing following record procurement levels. This should see a relaxation of the export restrictions following the national stock take in September.