Egypt Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

The breaching of the border between Egypt and the Gaza strip at the frontier town of Rafah in late January had important security implications. In response to new rocket attacks from Gaza, Israel sealed the borders tightly and cut off fuel shipments to the territory's only power plant, provoking power cuts and raising concern over the fate of the civilian population. This in turn led to an assault on the Gaza- Egypt border from within Gaza, with Hamas militants driving a bulldozer through the security fence and allowing a surge of Palestinians through into Egypt. The limited numbers of Egyptian border guards were swamped by the surge. In the first week after the breach, journalists calculated that several hundred thousand Gaza Palestinians had crossed into Egypt, mainly to buy goods and reunite divided families.

The chaotic situation posed an acute dilemma for the Egyptian authorities. Moving against the Gaza Palestinians would be deeply unpopular at home and in the rest of the Arab world. On the other hand, allowing a free for all across the border would open Egypt to infiltration by radical groups. Of particular concern was the potential strengthening of the political link between the radical Hamas and the internal Egyptian opposition in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood. On February 3 Egypt managed to close the border again, and began mopping up operations, deporting some 350 Palestinians from the north Sinai back to Gaza. On February 4 there were clashed between masked Palestinian gunmen and Egyptian forces which left one person dead and 59 wounded. Foreign minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit signalled a tough new line by saying 'whoever breaks the border line will have his foot broken'. The minister added that efforts were continuing with Israel and the EU to re-open the border crossing 'in a legal way'. He criticised Hamas for renewing its attacks on Israel, saying that rockets 'lost in the sands of Israel' were simply giving the Jewish state a chance to strike at Gaza and cause harm to Palestinians. Hamas retorted that his comments were 'unfitting and undiplomatic'. Despite the verbal clashes, Egypt entered talks with Hamas on the management of the border and the wider conflict with Israel.

Egypt is a major recipient of US foreign military aid, which it uses to acquire largely US-made military equipment as part of Cairo's bid to modernise its armed forces. Whilst Egypt lacks a substantial armaments design industry, it remains one of the most prolific manufacturers of military equipment in the region. However, its defence industry remains limited to co-production deals, again, primarily with the US. Egypt's military expenditure is likely to remain constant providing Cairo remains in Washington's favour. That said, European companies have been increasingly breaking into the Egyptian defence market over the last few years, and stronger ties with China could see the end of dependency on the US.

Cairo and Washington share many of the same beliefs regarding Egypt's security concerns. US pressure for political reform in Egypt remains limited because the US does not want another Islamist government to emerge in the region. The US bolsters Mubarak's government through explicit support and extensive financial and military aid. As a result, discontent from the Egyptian side regarding US foreign policy in the region is rarely reflected in Cairo's official stance. Whilst Washington will be happy to maintain the status quo, Mubarak will have to work hard in order to keep a grip on his side of the relationship.