Energy War with Iran
An immediate existential threat to Human civilisation

  • Publication Date:September 2010
  • Publisher:CGSA
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:3

Energy War with Iran An immediate existential threat to Human civilisation

Important Note: This is the Executive Summary ONLY. This is a controlled report and as such the full report it is only available to government officials, senior executives, senior decision makers and relevant analysts. This report is not intended for the general public.

It is often stated that if attacked Iran would use its proxies throughout the Middle East to attack western interests. Further we are told that Iran has threatened to close the straits of Hormuz if attacked. However when one looks more closely at this world view more questions are raised than answered.

It is public knowledge that with just ten B2 stealth bombers each carrying almost one hundred small diameter bombs the US air force could easily destroy every piece of infrastructure in Iran. Iran would not be able to detect much less prevent such an attack utilising stealth weapons. Every oil and gas production and distribution facility, refinery, electrical power station, manufacturing complex, shipping port, airport, bridge, tunnel and military base could be attacked and destroyed with impunity in minutes. Once Iran’s infrastructure is destroyed she would be devastated and knocked into Stone Age. As a result Iran would be unable to fight or resupply its proxy forces in the Middle East or elsewhere in the world. This would allow the OECD/NATO forces to easily hunt down and destroy Iran’s proxies safe in the knowledge that Iran would be unable to resupply them. This type of attack is such a simple task that many of the medium European powers such as the UK, France and Germany could achieve the same effect using long range stealth standoff weapons deployed on their fighters. And yet there has been no attack on Iran to date.
If Iran tried to close down the straits of Hormuz the powerful western navies and air forces could easily destroy Iran’s navy and clear the straights.

The perfect time to carry out such an attack was in 2008-9 when officially there was a world liquid fuels spare capacity of 6-8 million barrels per day which may have absorbed any loss of supply from such a disruption to shipping. And yet there has been no attack on Iran to date.
In the 1950s when the US fought with North Korea general Douglas MacArthur showed the power of US manoeuvre warfare by invading North Korea at Incheon and cutting off North Korean logistical supplies. The North Korea’s armies were quickly defeated. It was only China’s intervention which prevented total defeat for North Korea. The US finally won control of South Korea by threatening China with a nuclear attack. This shows that if the US and her allies destroyed Iran’s civilian and military infrastructure they would also disable Iran’s proxy forces by neutralising their source of logistical re-supply and be assured a stunning strategic victory throughout the Middle East. They would then be able to control the Middle East’s remaining oil supplies until they ran out. Western forces have without hesitation invaded Iraq and Afghanistan for a far lesser prize. So the question is why have the OECD/NATO countries not attacked Iran?

In the 1960’s when the US was fighting in South Vietnam they could easily have invaded North Vietnam and won the war but they did not dare do so. Why? Because by then China had a nuclear deterrent and if China had intervened on the side of North Vietnam as they had in Korea then there would have been nothing to stop them. Unknown to the US public the US was checkmated by a hidden factor, namely China’s own nuclear deterrent.

Which brings us back to why the OECD/NATO has not attacked Iran until now. Could there be a hidden Iranian deterrent at work which is not common knowledge. This one unspoken issue maybe constraining the scope of western action and be framing all high level policy and debate on Iran. It may be the critical linchpin on which the fate of Iran, the Middle East and the whole world rests. Unfortunately if this deterrence exists it is unstable and the instability is increasing exponential as the deterrence nears the end of its natural process. If this unspoken critical point is not dealt with correctly the results for humanity could be catastrophic.
Some even go so far as to suggest that Iran already has a nuclear deterrent. It is only when one knows how potentially destructive the real deterrent is that it becomes obvious that a nuclear, biological and chemical arsenal pales in comparison to the real threat. When Iran’s government repeatedly says that they do not need a nuclear deterrent the chilling cold logic of global Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) becomes obvious. In many ways it would be far safer for the world if Iran could somehow be persuaded to rely on less destructive conventional nuclear, biological and chemical arsenals.

Unfortunately over the years both groups have been locked into an ever worsening series escalation and counter escalation without a way out until the final inevitable destruction of human civilisation.
At Advanced Commodities Global Consulting we were busy working out the details of a solution to another threat to human civilisation when we became aware of this imminent threat to humanity. This is why we can understand that the current threat emerged as a side effect of the problem that we were working to resolve. As a result we understand both the complexity of the problem and the way out of the current increasingly dangerous dead end.
Better still the solution has the potential to be self funding and immediately generate vast fortunes as it jumpstarts a new industrial revolution, but that is the story of another report.

1. Background
1.1. Global Oil depletion
1.2. Natural gas cliff
1.3. Why coal production is dependent on oil supplies
1.4. Why Nuclear Energy is dependent on oil supplies
1.5. Why Renewable energy does not have time to maintain the statuesque
1.6. How Collapsing mineral ore grades have doomed industrial civilisation
1.7. The threat of Net energy / E.R.O.E.I. collapse
1.8. Why the world is living on Emergy and borrowed time.
1.9. The Freezing point of human civilisation
1.9.1. Just in time supply chains and the end the end of resilient networks
1.9.2. Death by Minimum Operating Level (M.O.L.)
1.9.3. The collapse of complexity
1.9.4. The collapse of the technological apex
1.9.5. Why going down is not the same as going up
1.9.6. Why shocks destroy efficiency
1.9.7. The end of globalisation and the exponential increase in travel time and effort
1.10. The threats to Global Food production and the collapse of  human carrying capacity
1.11. The Parasitic drag of current consumption patterns
1.12. How an inverted resource utilisation pyramid is threatening to magnify the destructive effects of any collapse of energy supplies
1.13. The extreme geographic vulnerability of the Externalisation of costs and resource supplies
1.14. An abrupt end to the OECD/NATO military industrial complex

2. The Strategic hopelessness of the OECD/NATO
2.1. US vulnerabilities
2.1.1. Energy Production
2.1.2. Resource depletion
2.1.3. Food production
2.1.4. Technological collapse
2.1.5. Military collapse

2.2. UK vulnerabilities
2.2.1. Energy Production
2.2.2. Resource depletion
2.2.3. Food production
2.2.4. Technological collapse
2.2.5. Military collapse

2.3. Western European vulnerabilities
2.3.1. Energy Production
2.3.2. Resource depletion
2.3.3. Food production
2.3.4. Technological collapse
2.3.5. Military collapse

2.4. Japans vulnerabilities
2.4.1. Energy Production
2.4.2. Resource imports
2.4.3. Food production
2.4.4. Technological collapse
2.4.5. Military collapse
2.5. Asiatic (South Korea, Taiwan) vulnerabilities
2.5.1. Energy Production
2.5.2. Resource imports
2.5.3. Food production
2.5.4. Technological collapse
2.5.5. Military collapse

3. Why Iran is now the fulcrum of the world
3.1. Iran’s Strengths
3.1.1. Energy Production
3.1.2. Resource self sufficiency
3.1.3. Food self sufficiency
3.1.4. Technological resilience
3.1.5. Military resilience
3.1.6. International Sanctions

3.2. Iranian vulnerabilities
3.2.1. Energy Production declines
3.2.2. Subsidies and over consumption
3.2.3. Resource depletion
3.2.4. Food production
3.2.5. Population pressure
3.2.6. Military conflict

4. The time pressures on the OECD/NATO
4.1. Collapse of domestic oil production
4.2. Collapse of global oil exports
4.3. Collapse of domestic natural gas production
4.4. Collapse of global natural gas exports
4.5. 60 months to end of Empire
4.6. Iran the one eyed man in the land of the blind

5. The OECD’s official public view of Iran’s war plans
5.1. Straits of Hormuz
5.2. Iraq
5.3. Afghanistan
5.4. Lebanon
5.5. Palestine
5.6. Iranian Special Forces
5.7. Iran’s pacifist military strategy

6. Iran’s actual war plans - 300 seconds to doomsday
6.1. With nothing to lose Iran maybe about to lose it
6.2. Iran’s Doomsday arsenal
6.3. ABM rule 101 – Why ABM systems guarantee overwhelming catastrophic defeat for the defender
6.4. It’s the velocity of the shock that magnifies the killing potential
6.5. OECD/NATO Suicide by Assured Destruction


7. OECD/NATO Pre-emptive war plans
7.1. Blunting Iran’s actual war plans

8. Time Pressures on Iran
8.1. Surviving OECD/NATO Pre-emptive war plans

9. Iran’s Pre-emptive war plans
9.1. First mover advantage
9.2. The logic of counter escalation squared
9.3. 60 seconds notice
9.4. The logic of a Zero notice first strike Doomsday option
9.5. Once the match is lit there is no stopping Doomsday – Two men standing nee deep in petrol playing with matches
9.6. OECD/NATO suicide by escalating into counter escalation squared

10. Secondary Doomsday Effects – The Dominos of Destruction
10.1. The tight global geopolitical/military interconnects
10.2. Why secondary effects are non-linier in time and location

11. Recommendations
11.1. Reducing tensions
11.2. Using Mutual Assured Destruction to prevent global catastrophe
11.3. Giving the OECD/NATO countries Something to live for by Mitigating the collapse of human civilisation
11.3.1. Resolving the Net energy collapse problem through E.R.O.E.I. boosting
11.3.2. Virtually upgrading mineral ore grades to ensure the future of industrial civilisation
11.3.3. Using renewable energy to secure the worlds food and water supplies
11.4. Buying survival time by restoring the resource utilisation pyramid"

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