Israel Defence and Security Report Q1

Domestic and external threats remain on Israel's horizon. While the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been able largely to ignore the Obama administration's call for a freeze on settlements, a move in November 2009 to go ahead and expand a settlement in East Jerusalem resulted in a public rebuke from US officials. Few details emerged from a private meeting between Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama but the philosophical divide between the two appears greater than ever. Without action on the settlements it would seem unlikely any progress can be made on peace negotiations while Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' threat to retire introduces new uncertainty. While in practice Abbas will remain at the helm for the foreseeable future, his frustration demonstrates how far the two sides are from even sitting down at the table.

Tensions continue over the dire living conditions of Palestinians in Gaza in the wake of the Israeli assault in January 2009 and its ongoing blockade of the territory. Anger at Israel grew after the publication of a report in September by Justice Richard Goldstone on behalf of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), which said the Israeli army had violated international law in relation to the offensive in Gaza in January 2009 and called for an investigation into possible war crimes by Hamas. In late October, the UNHRC passed a resolution criticising Israel with no reference to Hamas. Palestinian protesters continued to clash with police in Jerusalem's Old City and the Israeli Air Force performed airstrikes against militants in and around Gaza City.

Israel's defence industry remains a mainstay of the national economy but, despite the ongoing needs of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), there are concerns that military spending is too high, especially in the harsh economic climate following the global financial crisis.

In Q309, BMI updated the methodology of its Terrorism Ratings and expanded it to cover 170 global cities, as well as 130 states. As before, the Terrorism Rating incorporates our analysts' qualitative view of the terrorist threat. However, it also incorporates secondary analysis of data on global terrorist incidents from the US State Department's Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS), to provide a quantitative assessment of the risks. Due to the usage of US State Department data, the definition of terrorist incidents has been realigned. It now refers to incidents 'in which sub-national or clandestine groups or individuals deliberately or recklessly attacked civilians or non-combatants'. Specifically, all incidents have been either claimed or inferred as being perpetrated by groups designated as terrorists.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Israel Security SWOT
• Israel Defence Industry SWOT
• Israel Political SWOT
• Israel Economics SWOT
• Israel Business Environment SWOT
• Global Political Outlook
  • Table: Countries Facing Major Leadership Succession In 2010-2019
  • Table: Countries At Risk Of Major Political Upheaval
  • Table: Countries At Risk Of Interstate Conflict Or Heightened Bilateral Tensions
  • Table: Countries Facing Secessionist Or Autonomy Movements, Insurgencies, Or Civil Wars
  • Table: Pivotal States
• Middle East And North Africa Overview
• Political Overview
• Domestic Politics
• Foreign Policy
• Security Risk Analysis
• BMI's Security Ratings
  • Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
  • Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
• Israel's Security Risk Ratings
• City Terrorism Rating
  • Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
• Domestic Security Overview
  • Table: Insurgent Groups In Israel
• External Security Situation
• Background Brief: Israel's Wars
• The Golan Heights
• Iran
• Latest Developments
• Armed Forces And Government Spending
• Armed Forces
  • Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted)
• Current Strength
• International Deployments
• Weapons Of Mass Destruction
  • Table: Israeli Vehicles Capable Of Nuclear Delivery
• Market Overview
• Arms Trade Overview
• Industry Trends And Developments
  • Table: Key Players In Israel's Defence Sector
• Procurement Trends And Developments
• Industry Forecast Scenario
  • Table: Israel's Armed Forces, 2006-2014 (‘000 personnel)
  • Table: Israel's Government Defence Expenditure, 2006-2014
• Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
• Macroeconomic Forecast
  • Table: Israel – Economic Activity, 2004-2013
• Company Profiles
• General Dynamics
• Rafael Armament Development Authority
• Israel Military Industries
• Elbit Systems
• Elisra Group
• Country Snapshot: Israel Demographic Data
• Section 1: Population
  • Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  • Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
• Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  • Table: Education, 2002-2005
  • Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
• Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
  • Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
  • Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  • Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
• BMI Methodology
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
• Defence Industry
• City Terrorism Rating
  • Table: Methodology
• Sources