Israel Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

At the beginning of February 2008, defence minister Ehud Barak said he would not resign despite a critical report on the conduct of the 2006 invasion of Lebanon. Barak, who is also the leader of the Labour party, had earlier suggested he might step down and take his party out of the ruling coalition if the Winograd Commission report had blamed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert directly for the political and military mistakes made in 2006. In the event the report spoke of 'serious failings' during the war but did not blame Olmert directly. The commission, led by retired Supreme Court justice Aliahi Winograd, said the conflict had been a 'missed opportunity' that ended without a clear victory over Hizbullah. Around 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 159 Israelis, mainly soldiers, died during the war. The report noted that 'a semi-military organisation of a few thousand men resisted, for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East'. This, it said, had been possible because of failings in the decision-making processes.

Although domestic and international relations are in trouble, BMI does not see a significant change to the level of threat to Israel's security for the foreseeable future. Israel will continue to exist within a highly volatile region and be at risk of attacks from both internal and external parties. This is not new to Israel. It has existed under these conditions, and far worse, since its creation and has built up sophisticated and well-tuned mechanisms for combating such threats. Whilst not numerically great, its armed forces are well-trained, well-armed and highly experienced. Perhaps more importantly, Israel is supported by the world's only superpower, the US, which donates enormous quantities of military aid and equipment to the Israeli Defence Force (IDF).

Israel's armed forces are also supported by one of the world's most advanced defence industries, which benefits from large amounts of support from the government in the form of contracts. Israeli arms exports are currently flourishing, with lucrative relationships created with major weapons purchasers such as India and Turkey. In 2006, transfers totalled some US$4.5bn, ranking Israel in the top five exporters in the world. Arms imports are also likely to be sustained at a significant level by several long-running procurement programmes and an increase in foreign military financing (FMF) from the US.

BMI's newly-released Israel Defence & Security Report concludes that the Israeli defence industry is set to thrive regardless of the immediate political or security environment in which it operates.