Poland Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

The Polish Minister Bogfan Kilch visited Washington in January to discuss defence related matters.

These included the ongoing negotiations for the missile shield, the withdrawal of Polish soldiers from Iraq, and the possible enlargement of the Polish military contingent to Afghanistan. According to the Polish government, Poland and the US have developed a close strategic partnership, and the US has signalled that, as part of the negotiations for the installation of missile shield infrastructure on Polish territory, it may be willing to assist Poland to strengthen its air defence systems.

The topics discussed in Washington reflect the core basic challenges facing Poland as it strives to affect a transition to becoming a smaller (in terms of manpower, if not operational capability and firepower), more professional (and less reliant on conscripts) force, modelled on other NATO forces in terms of organisation and equipment. Over 3,000 troops remain abroad, and are serving in various missions led by NATO, the EU, the UN or the US-led coalition in the Middle East. The armed forces are also upgrading their capabilities for ground surveillance and operation of defence early warning systems. Poland is also working hard to develop a counter-terrorism capability. This is an important (if not traditional) challenge for Poland, as its participation in various military missions in Afghanistan and Iraq has increased the likelihood of it becoming a target for Islamic militants.

The biggest single issue at the moment for Poland is without doubt the increasing likelihood of Poland accepting the US's proposal to construct 10 interceptor missiles in its territory, despite fierce opposition from Russia. In an attempt to diffuse tensions with Russia, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, travelled to Moscow on February 8 to discuss security issues, and to reassure President Putin that the proposed missile base will not threaten Russian security. Whether this, and other attempts by the new Polish government, to improve relations with Moscow will be effective remains to be seen.

In general, the political climate, under the leadership of the PO led coalition, favours greater engagement with the EU, including the adoption of the Euro in 2012 or 2013. However, one of the implications of this Westward-looking trend is the commitment to increased financial discipline. This may mean that Poland's military forces will have difficulty funding all their planned projects over the coming years. The transition to a smaller, better equipped, and more highly trained, professional force will require substantial expenditure. As we reported last times, the 2007 budget involved a 10.5% increase in defence spending to PLN21,579mn. According to the Ministry of National Defence, defence spending in 2007 amounted to about 1.95% of 2006 GDP - which is very close to what is commonly regarded as a suitable floor for defence spending by a NATO country (i.e. 2% of GDP). We expect that even if budgetary and economic constraints prevent the defence budget from rising as rapidly as the Ministry of National Defence would like, Poland will remain a significant buyer of arms and materiel. This is particularly good news for US suppliers, from whom Poland is sourcing much of its technology-intensive equipment.

However, there will also be substantial opportunities for Poland's indigenous arms suppliers.

Poland's defence/ aerospace industries have also had to undergo enormous transformation In general they have become smaller, as the disappearance of traditional markets in the former Soviet Union has led to much smaller demand, and export sales remain quite small. Despite this however, an examination of recent contracts shows that Poland's defence-aerospace industries are globally competitive in particular niches such as aircraft components and radio systems.

One recent event that is worth mentioning was the crash of a military plane from 13th Transport Air Squadron on the 23rd January, which killed all 20 on board. Notably, among the victims were air brigade commander Brig. Gen. Andrzej Andrzejewski and Col. Jerzy Piat, commander of the Mirosawiec base.

This makes it a very significant loss for the Polish air force. It is unclear what caused the crash.