Sudan Defence and Security Report Q2 2009

In March 2009, in a critical development, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur. This, the first indictment of a serving head of state and firmly rejected by Khartoum, has substantial security implications, as well as political consequences.

In the short-term, the situation on the ground was substantially worsened for aid workers and peacekeepers. Violent attacks have increased, with aid workers kidnapped - and later released - in two separate incidents, and one peacekeeper from the United Nations/African Union hybrid force killed. In addition, President Bashir expelled 13 international and three local aid agencies immediately after the warrant was issued, accusing them of collaborating with the ICC. Together accounting for at least half of the aid delivered in Darfur, the humanitarian crisis in the region is reportedly deepening, with remaining agencies struggling to cover even immediate needs.

In the longer term, the indictment may have paved the way for political upheaval and renewed instability.

Tensions in the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) have been reported. While Sudan's opposition may not be sufficiently organised and unified to move against Bashir at this point, the recently announced presidential and parliamentary elections in 2010 may provide an opportunity.

In Darfur, where up to 300,000 people have been killed and over 2 million displaced since the conflict between government-backed militias and Darfuri rebel groups began in 2003, there is little evidence that the indictment unleashed a new wave of violence. The conflict has been described as entering a lowintensity phase. But the warrant has had negative implications for ongoing Arab League peace talks in Qatar, with key rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) withdrawing from the talks after the aid group expulsions.

Insecurity in the so-called Three Areas - Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile - has worsened over the last year and they could act as a flashpoint during South Sudan's referendum on self-determination, expected in 2010. Heavy fighting in Abeyi in May 2008 killed scores and displaced up to 100,000. The substantial oil wealth of the regions and the disputed border between North and South Sudan could provoke further violence in the future and possibly threaten the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between North and South in 2005.

Relations between South Sudan and Uganda over Ugandan military operations on Sudanese soil against the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) remained strained after South Sudan's government asked Ugandan forces to leave in 2008. However, in December 2008, South Sudan cooperated with Ugandan and Congolese forces in a joint military operation against the rebels' bases in northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Widely concluded to have been a failure, the ill-prepared attack scattered rebels across the region, with up to 1,000 Congolese civilians killed as they fled. Reports suggest that small groups of LRA rebels could have returned to South Sudan.

Arms imports to Sudan remain a contentious issue, with China and Russia allegedly the major suppliers of the government, despite the UN arms embargo on the country. In place since 2005, the embargo applies to all actors in the Darfur conflict, including government forces, allowing suppliers to argue that the weaponry they provide has a legitimate end-use. But advocacy groups argue that some of the arms may have been used in attacks on civilians. Little is known about Sudan's own burgeoning defence industry, but the parastatal Military Industry Corporation reportedly produces a range of small arms and light weapons from its complexes outside Khartoum.