Sudan Defence and Security Report Q3 2009

Deteriorating relations between North and South Sudan can be expected to define Sudan's political and security dynamic as the country approaches elections in 2010 and South Sudan's intended referendum on independence in 2011. Both these events, as well as the fate of several provinces lying on the disputed North-South boundary, could serve as potential flashpoints between two sides that are increasingly struggling to find common ground.

Although the situation in Darfur has attracted the most attention over recent years, the ongoing implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is of great significance and its failure could return Sudan to widespread conflict. Signed in 2005 to bring an end to a 21-year civil war, deadlines for certain substantial provisions of the accord are rapidly approaching. And as they do, tensions between the North's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the South's Sudanese People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) are rising.

In addition to charges from both Northern and Southern partners in the Government of National Unity (GNU) that the other side has been stalling in implementing the CPA, relations have been fraying for some time. Issues include proposed legislation, the NCP's handling of the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant issued for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, and rising insecurity in both North- South border provinces and South Sudan itself.

Tensions may have also been exacerbated by delays to the national elections, which were originally scheduled for June 2009 according to the deadline set by the CPA, but have twice been postponed and are now slated for April 2010. But perhaps the most sensitive CPA provision is the referendum on South Sudan's independence, currently due in January 2011. With most Southerners expected to vote for secession, conflict may flare if the North resists or seeks to retain control of the South's precious oilfields.

Indeed some observers speculate that - amid rising violence in the South - Khartoum is arming certain groups there ahead of the vote.

The security situation in Darfur remains volatile. The arrest warrant for President Bashir issued in March 2009 had both substantial security and political implications, but the effects have so been felt less severely than was anticipated. However, the UN's Emergency Relief Coordinator warned that while the relief effort has held so far - despite the expulsion of 16 aid agencies following the indictment - it will likely begin to falter imminently and the humanitarian crisis deepen. Violence on the ground in Darfur has continued, with government air strikes against civilians and rebel activity both reported in the last quarter. Numerous efforts at engaging all the parties to the conflict and reaching some form of peace deal have so far yielded little.

After asking Ugandan forces last year to leave Sudanese soil, where they had been operating against the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), the state of South Sudan's relations with Uganda remains unclear.

A joint military operation with Congolese troops against the LRA in December 2008 saw cooperation between the two administrations, but Operation Lightning Thunder was widely concluded to have been a failure. An ill-prepared attack scattered rebels across the region, and recent reports suggest that bands of LRA rebels could once more be operating in South Sudan.

Arms imports to Sudan remain a contentious issue, with China and Russia allegedly the major suppliers of the government, despite the UN arms embargo on the country. In place since 2005, the embargo applies to all actors in the Darfur conflict, including government forces, allowing suppliers to argue that the weaponry they provide has a legitimate end-use. But advocacy groups argue that some of the arms may have been used in attacks on civilians. Little is known about Sudan's own burgeoning defence industry, but the parastatal Military Industry Corporation reportedly produces a range of small arms and light weapons from its complexes outside Khartoum.