Turkey Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

On February 21 2008 the Turkish army launched a major ground operation against guerrillas from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), pushing around 10km into northern Iraq with 10,000 troops. By the end of the month it had pulled back again, saying that during the fighting it said it had killed 240 rebels and lost 27 of its own soldiers. The PKK counter-claimed that it had lost only five of its fighters and inflicted over 130 casualties on Turkish forces. Operations focused around Zap, where the army said over 2,000 PKK fighters were based. The army used F-16 warplanes, tanks, long-range artillery and attack helicopters. The incursion followed an ambush by the PKK in October that left 12 soldiers dead in Daglica on the border. General Yasar Buyukanit, the chief of the General Staff, said there would be more incursions 'as needed'. While he acknowledged that the PKK had not been eliminated by the operation, he said the aim had been to show the group 'that the north of Iraq is not a safe haven for terrorists'.

Buyukanit also denied that the decision to end the incursion had been influenced by the US, which had called for a quick withdrawal. The Iraqi authorities said they did not support the PKK, but objected to the Turkish incursion as a violation of their sovereignty.

Turkey's political structure, and perhaps more importantly the civil-military relationship within it, remains as solid as ever despite fears that the secular military and Islamist-leaning government were threatening to come to blows at various points in 2007. A fatal division remains unlikely given that both sides are fiercely nationalist - neither will want to jeopardise Turkey's EU membership efforts. Turkey faces a number of internal and external security threats. It has found itself on the front line of the 'war on terror', having been targeted by terrorist attacks perpetrated by Islamist groups in its major cities, and has suffered some consequences from the regional destabilisation caused by the war in Iraq. Furthermore, the increasing presence of ballistic missiles in the Middle East is of concern to Ankara.

Turkey is slowly embarking upon a modernisation of its armed forces and a reduction of the number of conscripts. The sheer size of the military stretches the establishment, but the number of troops is set to fall over the following years as Turkey faces changed threats and a diminishing military budget. Turkey has long had a high military budget, a by-product of the dominant role played by the military in Turkish politics. However, the country's weak economy, the pressure of EU membership hopes and the policy of the current government of assigning more funds to social programmes are likely to reduce the defence budget over the long term.

Turkey's defence industry is relatively small, and lacks efficiency and quality in the design and production of weapons systems. It has long relied on purchases or co-operation with foreign partners.

However, it is growing due to the continued boost to the local industry by the Under Secretariat for Defence Industries through the preferential awarding of procurement contracts and the stimulation of technology transfers (via foreign company involvement). The effects of this should be felt in terms of increased efficiency and quality of domestic products. Turkey is the world's fourth largest arms importer.

The volume of Turkey's imports is unlikely to change in the near future despite the evolving political picture. Exports remain relatively insignificant due to the state of its defence industry - it is the world's 28th largest exporter. However, the move to boost local design and production is likely to increase exports over time as Turkey develops competitive products.

Domestic political stability is ensured but threats to Turkey's security, from both internal and external sources, remain significant. Turkey has the second largest armed forces in NATO, which need to be equipped with NATO-compatible hardware. This is at great cost for a country with a small defence industry and limited budget, but fortunately Ankara is perceived to be a pivotal player in relations between the West and the Muslim world.