Uganda Defence and Security Report Q3 2009

While major internal threats have been reduced in recent years, Uganda continues to face an unpredictable and complex security situation. The rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) may not currently operate on Ugandan soil, but it still exists as a destabilising regional force, despite a substantial military operation against it in late 2008. A major crackdown on violent cattle raids in eastern Uganda has seen more than 80 Karamojong warriors killed by the army in 2009. A dispute with Kenya over an island in Lake Victoria continues to smoulder. With remnants of the Allied Democratic Forces rebel group still lingering across the border in eastern Congo, reports suggest a new rebel group is being formed in the north and west of the country.

Following the joint military operation launched against the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) by Uganda, South Sudan and DR Congo in December 2008, and the brutal reprisals in north-east Congo and South Sudan in which 1,000 civilians were reported killed and 160,000 displaced, LRA activity has continued at a low, but worrying, level. The LRA formerly operated entirely within Uganda, terrorising the civilian population of the North for over 20 years, but shifted its base to north-east Congo several years ago. Operation Lightning Thunder came after LRA leader Joseph Kony repeatedly failed to turn up at the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement negotiated through 2006-08. The attack appears to have destroyed LRA bases in Congo's Garamba National Park and killed a number of rebels, but the majority were scattered across the region, massacring as they went.

Numerous attacks by suspected LRA elements have been reported through the first half of 2009 in northeastern Congo, South Sudan and eastern Central African Republic. While the Ugandan government declared the operation a success, BMI believes that although it was a blow to the rebel group, the attack did not remove the LRA threat. Instead, it may have widened its operating area and given it time to regroup. While suspected LRA attacks since Operation Lightning Thunder have so far taken place outside Uganda, insurgency remains a concern for the government and for people in the North, who had begun to return home after years in displaced persons camps.

The Ugandan army reportedly killed more than 80 Karamojong warriors since the start of 2009 as it sought to crack down on the tribesmen's deadly raids. The crackdown came as the frequency of cattle raids was stepped up, with the rainy season helping to cover the raiders' tracks. According to New Vision, 600 guns and 4,000 bullets have been seized. After failed voluntary disarmament exercises, the armed forces have been forcibly disarming the semi-nomadic group.

The Ugandan and Kenyan governments sought to defuse the escalating dispute over Migingo Island, an island in Lake Victoria claimed by both countries. Despite several inflammatory comments by Uganda President Yoweri Museveni in May 2009, a joint boundary survey was launched in June 2009 to review the border around Migingo and several other islands.

In June 2009, 11 people were detained in connection with alleged rebel activity in northern and western Uganda. Government and army officials reported that several of the detainees had been former LRA fighters who had surrendered under an earlier government amnesty. Meanwhile, remnants of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group continue to operate from eastern Congo, despite the June jailing of the ADF's former commander for robbery. The Ugandan government had reportedly considered launching a military attack against these remnants, a plan that may have been compromised by the fall-out of Operation Lightning Thunder.

Uganda lacks an established indigenous defence industry, and its armed forces are almost entirely dependent upon procurement from overseas. This reliance has left the Ugandan armed forces underequipped and reliant on obsolete, ageing equipment, with the government unable to procure modern hardware due to economic limitations. This scenario is unlikely to change in the near future given Uganda's relatively weak economy and widening balance of trade deficit. Military spending has continued to increase in real terms, but growth in expenditure is likely to stabilise at 3.5% per annum over the coming years.