World Diesel Engines

Global demand to grow 3% annually through 2012

World diesel engine demand is forecast to expand over three percent per year through 2012 to about $160 billion. This represents a considerable deceleration from the impressive growth posted during the 2002-2007 period, reflecting an expected slowdown in motor vehicle and off-highway equipment production.

Additionally, projected declines in metal prices are set to lower diesel engine production costs, moderating growth in the market. Despite the slower growth rate, substantial increases in demand are being predicted for every segment of the world diesel engine market, with the majority of new demand concentrated in the motor vehicle segment.

Imports of rapidly growing Asia/Pacific market to surge

The Asia/Pacific region is now the world's largest market for diesel engines, surpassing Western Europe. Rising demand for diesel engines in China, India, and South Korea drove growth in the regional market. The Asia/Pacific share of the world diesel engine market is forecast to exceed one-third by 2012.

Imports of diesel engines are expected to surge from 2007 to 2012, as regional manufacturers are unable to keep up with demand. In 2012, only Japan is forecast to post a substantial diesel engine trade surplus. Although the regional light vehicle segment is projected to expand at the fastest annual rate, the largest absolute gains will occur in the heavy truck and bus segment. China alone is forecast to account for almost 18 percent of new demand, from 2007 to 2012.

North American market to outpace Western Europe, driven by motor vehicle uses

The diesel engine market in Western Europe is projected to decelerate through 2012, as the production of motor vehicles and machinery weakens. In North America, the US is expected to account for the vast majority of new diesel engine demand through 2012. Growth in the North American market will be driven by the motor vehicle segment, which is set to benefit from the increasing use of diesel engines in light vehicle production.

In Eastern Europe and Latin America, demand for diesel engines is forecast to grow about 4.0 percent per year from 2007 to 2012. Nonetheless, each of these two regions will still account for less than six percent of total diesel engine demand.

Stationary market segment to grow the fastest

Growth rates in the various diesel engine markets are expected to be fairly uniform through 2012, ranging from about two to four percent. The stationary segment is expected to expand at the fastest annual rate, while the motor vehicle segment is forecast to claim most new demand.

Study coverage

This new Freedonia industry study, World Diesel Engines, is available for $5700. It presents historical demand data (1997, 2002, 2007) plus forecasts for 2012 and 2017 by market, world region and for 26 countries. The study also considers key market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles global industry competitors.