China Steel Demand Forecast

Along with the adjustment progress by central government on economic structure, China steel demand growth would slow down gradually, from 11.67% in 2005 down to forecasted 10.8% in 2006. Even though steel demand on shipping and automobile industries are expected to maintain at a healthy growth rate in 2006, demand growth on leading industry of construction, machinery, and house appliance would slide due to macro-controls of cutting down fixed asset investment and weak growth on whole market consumption. Covering above downstream demand industries, this report with exclusive information delivers deep insights of steel demand and assistances to your business performance.

Outline of This Report

The report contains Growell's comprehensive investigations and forecasts on downstream steel demand in eight industries including construction, machinery, automobile, household appliance, shipping, pipeline, container and railway. Data are analyzed and presented from following scenarios, applying to each industry.

Background and review on respective industry during 2001-1H06; Industry map: Allocating each downstream sub-sector in the industry. Steel consumption feature: Identifying the categories and proportions of steel consumption in terms of industrial minor segments. Drivers: Identifying the factors affecting the steel demand in each industry and evaluating consumption volume contributing to GDP.

Steel consumption categories in construction industry

• Reinforced concrete structures: DeBar, Wire rod, Section, with detailed utilization ratio (Average weight of steel consumption per square meter) within apartment building (4-8 floors), lower high-rise building (11-13 Floors) and higher high-rise building (16-24 Floors).
• Brick structures: DeBar, Wire Rod with utilization ratio in countryside constructions and small-size warehouses;
• Steel structures: Flat products, Section, Pipe with utilization ratio within high-rise building, large span structure, heavy-Steel Structure manufacturing house and light steel structure building;
• Total constructed acreage in each structure was presented to calculate out total steel consumption.

Steel consumption categories in machinery industry

• Agriculture machinery: Casting, thin flat products, M-H plate, section and long products with specific utilization ratio (Average weight of steel consumption per unit of machine) within gas engine machine, large-medium size machine, small-size tractor and harvesting machine.
• Mechanical basic parts: Special steel, with utilization ratio within gear wheel, axle-bearing, standard fix fastener, industrial chain, etc.
• Heavy machinery: M-H Plate, HR with utilization ratio within hoisting equipment, mine equipment, cement equipment, metal rolling equipment, etc.
• Machine tool: HR, Section, Wire Rod, with utilization ratio within metal-cutting tool, hand tool, forge press machine, metal-cutting machine tool, casting equipment, etc.
• Engineering machine: Flat products, Section, Pipe allocated with utilization ratio within tower crane, truck crane, wheel-type loader, hydraulic crawler scraper etc.
• The total weight of minor segment's machines under each sub-sector was acquired to calculate total steel consumption.

Steel consumption categories in automobile industry CR and GI are mainly with (Average weight of steel consumption per unit of car) at area of panel, door, bottom plate and engineer cover of saloon car, passenger car, and truck. Total car weight within each car category was obtained to figure out total steel consumption.

Steel consumption categories in house appliance industry

• Air conditioner: GI with detailed utilization ratio (Average weight of steel consumption per unit of house appliance) as cover within normal and central air-conditioner.
• Kitchen appliance: stainless steel and CR with utilization ratio within micro-wave oven, gas-oven, rice-cooker, etc.
• Refrigerator and freezer: GI is mainly used within refrigerator and freezer.
• Washing machine: Stainless steel and CR with utilization ratio within rolling, dryer, spin-drier washing machines.
• Bath and shower machine: CR is used as covers with utilization rate within electrical and gas heaters.
• Total weight of house appliance within each category was obtained to work out total steel consumption.

Features:

• Primary research covering major steel downstream industries, including construction, machinery, automobile, home appliance, pipeline, ship-building, container, and railway.
• Each industry is divided into up-to-4 layers of sub-sectors. For each sub-sector, indicators are selected according to historical statistics and future steel demand is estimated by changes of indicators.
• Different models are used to estimate changes of different indicators, to best meet historical statistics.
• China total steel demand forecast till 2010.
• Breakdown steel demand is provided for each sub-sector and industry.
• An executive summary is also provided, explaining the qualitative trends of steel demand and reasons of past changes.

Highlights:

The general trend of China's steel demand till 2010. General trend of the 9 major downstream industries including construction, machinery, automobile, home appliances, ship-building, rail, container, pipelines, hardware. Modeling on major sectors and authoritative data from statistics agencies of these industries.

Reasons to Purchase:

China takes up more than 1/3 of the global demand, each player or invester related to global steel industry has to understand its current situation and future trend, this report gives you a clear map of the demand growth of China. You can get a sense of different growth of each downstream industry and target your expansion to the industry with promising development. And our modeling will help you better understand the drivers and indicators of each industry.