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Mozambique Mining Report Q1 2014

  • Publication Date:December 2013
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:82
  • ISBN:174611

Mozambique Mining Report Q1 2014

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Mozambique will be one of the major growth stories in the global mining sector, as a
combination of investment into the country's sizeable coal reserves and a relatively strong business
environment coalesce to provide rapid growth in output. We expect the value of the country's mining sector
to grow from US$259mn in 2012 to US$724mn in 2017, and increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2012 to 2.9% in
Mozambique's nascent coal sector is set to take off in the next few years, boosting the country's mining
industry. Almost all of the coal produced will be exported and thus Mozambique has the potential to
become one of the largest global exporters, with India and China the main destinations. While the outlook
for the sector is positive, there are concerns surrounding the capacity of the country's infrastructure to cope
with the projected increase in mineral production over the next few years. However there have in fact been
positive developments, with Mozambique's Nacala port ready to export its first shipment of coal from
December 2013.
BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 11
Gold: Lacklustre Growth Ahead 11
Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects 12
Table: Mozambique - Gold Production 13
Coal: Mozambique To Become Global Growth Driver 14
India Takes An Interest 16
Table: Mozambique - Largest New Coal Projects 17
Infrastructure A Downside Risk 17
Heightened Political Risk in Q413 17
Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecast 18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19
Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards 19
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings 20
Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining 20
Mixed Rankings For West Africa 20
Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa 21
Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development 22
Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk 22
Country Highlights 23
South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies 23
Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 24
Botswana: All Round Outperformer 24
Market Overview 25
Coal To Fuel Mining Sector Growth 26
Regulation To Become More Supportive 26
Table: Mozambique - Key New Projects 27
Infrastructure & Political Risks 27
Table: Mozambique - Mining Industry Value & Production 28
Regulatory Development 29
Recent Developments 29
Positive Regulatory Structure To Support Investment 29
Tax Regime 31
Corruption To Remain Key Concern 31
Table: Mozambique - Political Overview 32
Table: Africa - Mining Regulatory Outlook 32
Commodities Forecast 34
Commodity Strategy 34
Iron Ore: Prices To Head Lower In 2014 35
Steel: Reprieve Unlikely To Last 36
Aluminium: Weakness Resuming 36
Copper: Continued Weakening 38
Lead: Modest Secular Uptrend To Remain Intact 38
Nickel: Can't Catch A Break 39
Tin: Outperformance To Continue 40
Zinc: Likely To Hold Up 41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 42
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy 43
Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics 45
Company Profile 46
Rio Tinto - Q1 2014 46
Company Overview 48
Company Strategy 49
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data51
Vale 52
Company Overview 54
Company Strategy 55
Recent Financial News 56
Company Details 57
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 58
Regional Overview 59
Africa Overview 59
1 Chinese Investment Inflows To Continue 59
2 Lack Of Infrastructure A Major Hurdle 60
3 Regulatory Environment In Flux 61
Table: Key Regulatory Developments 62
4 Gold Crunch To Gain Traction 62
5 Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 64
6 Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 65
Global Industry Overview 66
Global Overview 66
Downturn To Continue Into 2014 66
1 China Slowdown To Drive Mining Moderation 66
2 Frontier Mining Increasingly Challenging 67
3 Mining Services Firms Facing Tough Outlook 69
But Opportunities Still Exist 71
1 Asian Outward Investment Continues 71
2 Private Equity Entering The Mix 73
3 Global Thermal Coal Demand Still Growing 74
Methodology 77
Industry Forecast Methodology 77
Sources 78
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 79
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 81
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