Lubricants

US industry forecasts for 2012 & 2017

Publication Date	September 2008
Publisher	Freedonia Group
Product Type	Report
Pages	369
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	FED00226

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Summary

US demand for lubricants to stabilize through 2012

US demand for lubricants will stabilize through 2012, an improvement from the declines experienced during the period from 2002 to 2007, but still significantly lagging growth in GDP. Advances will largely be a result of increased manufacturing activity, fueling demand for industrial lubricants such as hydraulic fluids, process oils and greases. Additionally, engine oils and transmission fluids will benefit from the increasing number of motor vehicles in use. However, volume gains will be restricted by trends toward longer-lasting lubricants, which extend oil drain intervals and reduce overall lubricant requirements. Market value will approach $20 billion in 2012, driven by shifts toward higher-quality formulations and the continued impact of high base oil costs.

Environmental concerns drive market for nontraditional lubricants

Significant shifts in demand for lubricating base oils are expected, as performance requirements of finished lubricants continue to change. Higher quality basestocks such as Group II, II+ and III petroleum oils, as well as synthetic types, are expected to increase their share of the market at the expense of Group I and naphthenic base oils. Better quality base oils are necessary for lubricants to comply with the variety of new standards in the industry, including ILSAC GF-5 motor oils, API CJ-4 diesel engine oils, and DEXRON-VI transmission fluids.

Environmental concerns will also drive demand for re-refined basestocks and products derived from bio-based sources such as soybean oils.

Engine oil quality continues to improve

Demand for engine oils -- which accounted for just over half of total lubricant demand in 2007 -- will be boosted by the increasing number of motor vehicles in use, although this will be offset somewhat by trends toward less frequent oil changes. Process oils usage will be hindered by trends toward minimum quantity lubrication and dry machining.

Demand for transmission and hydraulic fluids is projected to reverse recent declines, although growth will be limited by changing standards for automatic transmission fluids, which will continue to increase drain intervals.

Study coverage

Lubricants, a new Freedonia industry study, is available for $4700. It presents historical demand data (1997, 2002 and 2007) plus forecasts for 2012 and 2017 by lubricant base oil (e.g., petroleum, synthetic, re-refined, bio-based), type (e.g., engine, process, general industrial, transmission and hydraulic), and market (e.g., nondurable goods manufacturing, light vehicle aftermarket, commercial/ industrial). The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles nearly 50 industry players, including Ashland, BP, Chevron, CITGO, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Shell.

Content

Introduction
Executive Summary
- 1 Summary Table
- Market Environment
- General
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Manufacturing Trends
- Consumer Spending Trends
- Motor Vehicle Outlook
- Motor Vehicle Design & Technology
- Light Vehicle Engines
- Diesel Engines
- Oil Filters
- Crude Oil & Refined Petroleum Products Outlook
- Lubricant Additives Overview
- Historical Market Trends
- Pricing Trends
- Environmental & Regulatory Issues
- Bio-Based Lubricants
- Recycling
- Re-Refining
- Motor Vehicle Lubricant Classification & Testing
- Foreign Trade
- International Activity
LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:
- 1 Macroeconomic Outlook
- 2 Manufacturers Shipments
- 3 Consumer Spending & Income
- 4 Motor Vehicle Indicators
- 5 Petroleum Industry Indicators
- 6 Lubricant Demand, 1997-2007
- Cht Lubricant Demand, 1997-2007
- 7 Lubricant Pricing
- 8 US Finished Lubricant Foreign Trade
LUBRICANT BASE OILS
- General
- Base Oils
- Petroleum Base Oils
- Supply & Demand
- Refining Capacity
- Other Base Oils
- Synthetic Lubricants
- Re-Refined Lubricants
- Bio-Based Lubricants
LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:
- 1 Lubricant Base Oil Demand
- 2 Petroleum Base Oil Supply & Demand
- 3 Petroleum Base Oil Refining Capacity, 2007
- 4 Other Lubricant Base Oils Demand
- 5 Synthetic Lubricant Demand by Type
- 6 Re-Refined Lubricant Demand
- 7 Bio-Based Lubricant Demand
- Cht Lubricant Production Flowchart, 2007
- Cht Petroleum Base Oil Refining Stages
- Cht Petroleum Base Oil Demand by Type
- Cht Petroleum Base Oil Refining Capacity, 2007
- Cht Lubricant Re-Refining Process
LUBRICANT PRODUCTS
- General
- Engine Oils
- Motor Vehicle Engine Oils
- Markets
- Grades
- Other Engine Oils
- Process Oils
- White Oils
- Rubber Oils
- Electrical Oils
- Other Process Oils
- General Industrial Oils
- Hydraulic Fluids
- Turbine Oils
- Fire-Resistant Fluids
- Other General Industrial Oils
- Transmission & Hydraulic Fluids
- Automatic Transmission Fluids
- Tractor Hydraulic & Transmission Fluids
- Power Steering & Other Fluids
- Metalworking Fluids
- Product Characteristics
- Suppliers
- Gear Oils
- Automotive Gear Oils
- Industrial Gear Oils
- Greases
- Industrial Greases
- Automotive Greases
LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:
- 1 Lubricant Demand by Type
- 2 Engine Oil Demand
- 3 Motor Vehicle Engine Oil Demand by Market
- 4 Motor Vehicle Engine Oil Demand by Grade
- 5 Other Engine Oil Demand
- 6 Process Oil Demand
- 7 White Oil Demand
- 8 Rubber Oil Demand
- 9 Electrical Oil Demand
- 10 Other Process Oil Demand
- 11 General Industrial Oil Demand
- 12 Industrial Hydraulic Fluid Demand
- 13 Industrial Turbine Oil Demand
- 14 Fire-Resistant Fluid Demand
- 15 Other General Industrial Oil Demand
- 16 Transmission & Hydraulic Fluid Demand
- 17 Metalworking Fluid Demand
- 18 Gear Oil Demand
- 19 Grease Demand
- Cht Lubricant Demand by Type, 2007
- Cht Motor Vehicle Engine Oil Demand by Grade
- Cht Process Oil Demand by Type, 2007
- Cht General Industrial Oil Demand by Type, 2007
- Cht Transmission & Hydraulic Fluid
- Demand by Type, 2007
LUBRICANT MARKETS
General
- Light Vehicle Aftermarket
- Light Vehicle Industry Outlook
- Light Vehicle Aftermarket Lubricant Demand
- Light Vehicle Engine Oil Sectors
- Professional
- DIY
- Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
- Plastics & Rubber
- Plastics & Rubber Industry Outlook
- Plastics & Rubber Lubricant Demand
- Cosmetics & Toiletries
- Cosmetic & Toiletry Industry Outlook
- Cosmetic & Toiletry Lubricant Demand
- Food & Beverages
- Food & Beverage Industry Outlook
- Food & Beverage Lubricant Demand
- Printing Inks
- Printing Ink Industry Outlook
- Printing Ink Lubricant Demand
- Chemicals
- Chemical Industry Outlook
- Chemical Products Lubricant Demand
- Paper & Textiles
- Paper & Textiles Industry Outlook
- Paper & Textile Lubricant Demand
- Other Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
- Commercial/Industrial
- Agriculture
- Agriculture Industry Outlook
- Agriculture Lubricant Demand
- Power Generation
- Electricity Generation Industry Outlook
- Power Generation Lubricant Demand
- Construction Equipment
- Construction Industry Outlook
- Construction Equipment Lubricant Demand
- Petroleum & Natural Gas Production
- Petroleum & Natural Gas Industry Outlook
- Petroleum & Natural Gas Lubricant Demand
- Mining
- Mining Industry Outlook
- Mining Lubricant Demand
- Other Commercial/Industrial Markets
- Transportation Equipment Aftermarket
- Heavy-Duty Trucks & Buses
- Heavy-Duty Trucks & Buses Industry Outlook
- Heavy-Duty Trucks & Buses Lubricant Demand
- Marine Equipment
- Waterborne Commerce Industry Outlook
- Marine Lubricant Demand
- Railroad Equipment
- Railroad Industry Outlook
- Railroad Lubricant Demand
- Aerospace Equipment
- Aerospace Industry Outlook
- Aerospace Lubricants Demand
- Other Transportation Equipment Aftermarket
- Durable Goods Manufacturing
- Transportation OEM
- Transportation Equipment Industry Outlook
- Transportation OEM Lubricant Demand
- Machinery
- Machinery Industry Outlook
- Machinery Production Lubricant Demand
- Metals
- Metal Products Industry Outlook
- Metal Production Lubricant Demand
- Other Durable Goods Manufacturing
LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS:
- 1 Lubricant Demand by Market
- 2 Light Vehicle Indicators
- 3 Light Vehicle Aftermarket Lubricant Demand
- 4 Light Vehicle Engine Oil Demand by Sector
- 5 Nondurable Goods Lubricant Demand
- 6 Plastics & Rubber Demand
- 7 Plastics & Rubber Lubricant Demand
- 8 Cosmetic & Toiletry Shipments
- 9 Cosmetic & Toiletry Lubricant Demand
- 10 Food & Beverage Shipments
- 11 Food & Beverage Lubricant Demand
- 12 Printing Ink Production
- 13 Printing Ink Lubricant Demand
- 14 Chemical Product Shipments
- 15 Chemical Product Lubricant Demand