| Product Code | FED00062 |
|---|---|
| Publication Date | May 2007 |
| Publisher | Freedonia Group |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 285 |
World carbon black demand is forecast to rise 4.2 percent per year through 2011 to eleven million metric tons, bolstered by a healthy global rubber market over the same period. The vast majority of carbon black finds use as a reinforcement in vulcanized rubber goods, including around two-thirds for tires alone. Carbon black demand from the tire sector is projected to increase 4.2 percent per year through 2011 to 7.1 million metric tons. The smaller non-tire rubber carbon black market will expand 4.0 percent per year through 2011 to 2.8 million metric tons.
The Asia/Pacific region, excluding Japan, will post the strongest gains in carbon black demand through 2011. The large markets of China and India will post particularly impressive gains due to a continuing rapid expansion in their respective motor vehicle and tire industries that will be driven by robust economic growth in both nations. China and India saw the largest increases in new carbon black capacity among all countries of the world over the 2001-2006 period, a trend that should continue through 2011.
Demand for carbon black in the developed parts of the world will continue to post below-average gains through 2011, with the large US and Japanese markets holding particularly weak prospects. Carbon black sales growth in Western Europe will recover from recent declines, but continue to significantly lag the global average through 2011. In most developed markets, carbon black capacity utilization rates will remain at 95 percent or higher, since new plant construction activity has reached a standstill in light of limited and uncertain growth prospects.
North America and Western Europe, which produced close to half of the world's carbon black in 1996, will account for just 28 percent in 2011. Conversely, the Asia/Pacific region, which produced 36 percent of the world's carbon black in 1996, will provide 51 percent in 2011. Asia and Latin America will account for a majority of new carbon black capacity through 2011.
Special blacks will offer the strongest gains, although increasing from a relatively low base. While special blacks comprise just nine percent of the overall carbon black market as measured in tonnage, they command considerably higher per-kilogram prices than commodity furnace blacks, and thus will continue to be the focus of research and development activity. In addition to higher margins, a strong position in special blacks gives suppliers more protection from cyclicality in the highly interconnected rubber, tire and motor vehicle industries. Although demand for special blacks will remain concentrated in the plastics, inks and paints sectors, other uses such as conductive fillers will provide the best growth prospects through 2011.
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