Economic Crisis Impact on the Packaging Supply Chain

Detailed Analysis 2008-2010

Publication Date	May 2009
Publisher	PackWebasia
Product Type	Report
Pages	128
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	PWA00008

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Summary

This 128 page Master Report: Detailed Analysis, analyses and compares the impact of the Economic Crisis on the Packaging Supply Chain on three continents Europe, North America and Asia from a micro regional perspective. It delves deeper into the causes and implications of the current crisis on the Packaging industry and builds on the macro analysis of the Executive Report (included) to provide an in-depth perspective of the Packaging Industry on the three continents of Europe, North America and Asia.

Based on exclusively collected proprietary primary data the report sales performance, headcount and capital expenditure trends through 2009 to end 2010.

Complete with 84 graphs and charts and 30 data tables the Master Report analyses industry performance region-by-region AND sector-by-sector from Q4 2008 to end 2009.

Additionally it provides company-supplied real-life projections and key industry performance indicators for the remainder of 2009 and longer-term estimates for 2010.

Highlights from the survey

Sales projections for the first half of ‘09 show continuing downward trend.
The rate of decline will ease slightly in North America and the Euro Zone; most companies project negative growth of below -2% to -5%.
Asia will decline to +8%, down from averages of +11%
A minority of manufacturers project sales growth of more than 40%. Again, Asia will be the main beneficiary.

Headcounts Frozen

Most companies report flat headcounts throughout 2009-10
Significant number will be slashing staff – mostly by about 5%.
A minority of the hardest hit firms anticipate more than 40% of jobs will be lost.
A small proportion say they plan on hiring in 2009; again, confined mainly to the Asian region.

Capital Equipment

More than half of all packaging producers reported a capital expenditure freeze - no investment plans through 2010.
Of those that have ’09 capital expenditure plans, only 10% have budgeted more than US$2 million.
Converting equipment tops the shopping list, followed by printing presses (digital, offset, flexo and gravure). Other equipment purchases being budgeted for include labelling, prepress, CAD/CAM, inspection, filling & sealing, extrusion and moulding machinery.
Brand Owners Increase Investment
Major retailers and brand owners recorded declining ’08-’09 sales.
Without exception, all have major investments and expansion plans for ’09-2010.
Continued Asian GDP growth will make it the main target.

Scope of the Report

This report was complied using Primary and Secondary data:-
Extensive use of primary data from a proprietary PackWebasia.com on-line survey conducted with more than 550 packaging sector players on three continents - North America, Europe and Asia - between March and April 2009.
Sales performance analysis of Q4 2008 and in-house projections for ’09 from six key Packaging Supply Chain Sectors demonstrate the full impact of the current crisis on the Retailer, Brand Owner, Designer, Package Manufacturer, Equipment and Materials Supplier, Packaging Association & Consultants.
Segmented by Region, Company Size and Market Orientation (Domestic or Export) highlights regional and sectoral differences.
Employment prospects for 2009 through to 2010 analyzed by Region
Consideration of external economic factors from secondary sources and their effect on the Packaging Supply Chain through to end 2010.
Insight highlighting the regional differences in both impact and response to the crisis.
The demand for packaging equipment and material supplies analyzed from detailed budgeted capital expenditure.
Additional primary data contributed by staff reporters and editors from original face-to-face interviews with industry players published by PackWebasia.com during the focus time-frame
Secondary data was used in conjunction with the above to compile monthly growth projections through to end 2010for Q4 ‘08 and Q1 ‘09 (October ‘08 - March ‘09).

Report Buyer Review

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Content

Introduction
About this Report
The Global Packaging Report
Methodology
How the Report was Compiled
The Scope of the Survey

CH 1: THE GLOBAL CRISIS IN PACKAGING
About this Report
The Global Packaging Report
•   Methodology
•   How the Report was Compiled
•   The Scope of the Survey
Primary Sources: Industry Survey
1.   Regional Survey
2.   Chart: Overall Responses by Region (%)
3.   Chart: Overall Responses by Industry Sector (%)
4.   Chart: Overall Responses by Company Size (%)
5.   Chart: Global Market Orientation
6.   Chart: Market Orientation by Region
Secondary Sources
•   OECD
•   World Bank
•   Asian Development Bank

Ch 1: The Global Crisis in Packaging
i. Introduction
Climate for Crisis
Black September
The Perfect Storm
Meltdown Timeline Sept-Dec 2008
Sales Performance 2008
Downward Sales Trend
7.   Chart: Q4 2008 Global Sales Performance
8.   Chart: Q4 2008 Sales Performance by Region
9.   Chart Q4 2008 Sales Performance by Sector
Sales Forecasts 2009
10.   Chart: Global Packaging Sales Forecasts 2009
11.   Chart: Packaging Sales Forecasts by Region 2009
12.   Chart: Packaging Sales Forecasts by Industry Sector 2009
Headcount Forecasts 2009
13.   Chart: Headcount Projections 2009
14.   Chart: Headcount Projections by Region 2009
Capital Investment Plans
15.   Chart: Overall 2009 Capital Investment Plans by Value
16.   Chart: Capital Investment Plans 2009 by Region
17.   Chart: Capital Investment Plans 2009 by Equipment Type

Conclusion
Prospects for 2009
18.   Chart: Quarterly GDP Projections 2009-10
Recovery in 2010?

Ch 2: Foreword: A Looming Crisis, Rolling Thunder
Global Economic Crisis Background 2006-08
Rocketing Prices
•   Oil & Energy
19.   Chart: Oil Price Trajectory 2007-‘09
•   Food Security
20.   Chart: Main Food Category Price Trajectory 2007-09
•   The China Syndrome
Packaging material fuel China’s Export Boom 2004-08
Black September
The Perfect Storm
Meltdown Timeline Sept-Dec 2008
Regional Economic Indicators
•   Labour Market
21.   Chart: Unemployment Rates by Region
•   Consumer Demand
22.   Regional Consumer Spending Projection 200-10
•   Inflation
23.   Regional Inflation Projections
•   Trade
24.   Table Quarterly Export: Goods & Services 2008-‘10
•   GDP Growth
25.   Chart: Regional GDP Growth 2007-10
Government Stimulus Packages
26.   Table: Stimulus Packages by Sector
Industry trends 2006-08
Offshoring Manufacturing
•   Eastern Europe
•   Asia
Ch 3: Regional Packaging Impact Analysis
i. North America Packaging Analysis
Introduction
•   Consumption Trends
•   Retail Performance
•   Brand Owner Performance
Survey Analysis N America
27.   Chart: N America responses by Industry Sector
N American Retail
28.   Chart: N America Retail Sales Q4 2008
29.   Chart: N America Retail Sales Projections 2009
30.   Chart: N America Retail Headcount Projections 2009
31.   Chart: N America Retail Capital Investment Budgets 2009
N American Brand Owner/Brand Management
32.   Chart: N America Brand Sales Performance Q4 2008
33.   Chart: N America Brand Sales Projections 2009
34.   Chart: N America Brand Capital Investment Budgets 2009
35.   Chart: N America Brand Machinery Investment 2009
N American Package Manufacturer
•   Packaging Sector Review N America
36.   Chart: Responses by Manufacturing Sector
37.   Chart: N America Packaging Sales Q4 2008
38.   Chart: N America Packaging Sales Projections 2009
39.   Chart: N America Packaging Headcount Projections 2009
40.   Chart: N America Packaging Capital Investment Budgets 2009
41.   Chart: N America Packaging Capital Investment: Equipment Type
N American Packaging Equipment/Material Supplier
•   Equipment Sector Review: N America
42.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Responses by Type
43.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Sales Q4 2008
44.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Sales Projections 2009
45.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Headcount Projections 2009
46.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Capital Investment Budgets 2009
ii. Analysis Western Europe
47.   Chart: Europe responses by Industry Sector
Retail
48.   Chart: Europe Retail Sales Q4 2008
49.   Chart: Europe Retail Sales Projections 2009
50.   Chart: Europe Retail Headcount Projections 2009
51.   Chart: Europe Retail Capital Investment Budgets 2009
European Brand Owner/Brand Management
52.   Chart: Europe Brand Sales Performance Q4 2008
53.   Chart: Europe Brand Sales Projections 2009
54.   Chart: Europe Brand Capital Investment Budgets 2009
55.   Chart: Europe Brand Machinery Investment 2009
European Package Manufacturer
•   Packaging Sector Review Europe
56.   Chart: Responses by Manufacturing Sector
57.   Chart: Europe Packaging Sales Q4 2008
58.   Chart: Europe Packaging Sales Projections 2009
59.   Chart: Europe Packaging Headcount Projections 2009
60.   Chart: Europe Packaging Capital Investment Budgets 2009
61.   Chart: Europe Packaging Capital Investment: Equipment Type
European Packaging Equipment/Material Supplier
•   Equipment Sector Review: Europe
62.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Responses by Type
63.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Sales Q4 2008
64.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Sales Projections 2009
65.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Headcount Projections 2009
66.   Chart: Equipment/Supplier Capital Investment Budgets 2009
iii. Analysis Asia
67.   Chart: Asia responses by Industry Sector
Asian Retail
68.   Chart: Asia Retail Sales Q4 2008
69.   Chart: Asia Retail Sales Projections 2009
70.   Chart: Asia Retail Headcount Projections 2009
71.   Chart: Asia Retail Capital Investment Budgets 2009
Asian Brand Owner/Brand Management
72.   Chart: Asia Brand Sales Performance Q4 2008
73.   Chart: Asia Brand Sales Projections 2009
74.   Chart: Asia Brand Capital Investment Budgets 2009
75.   Chart: Asia Brand Machinery Investment 2009
Asian Package Manufacturer
•   Packaging Sector Review Asia
76.   Chart: Asia Responses by Manufacturing Sector
77.   Chart: Asia Packaging Sales Q4 2008
78.   Chart: Asia Packaging Sales Projections 2009
79.   Chart: Asia Packaging Headcount Projections 2009
80.   Chart: Asia Packaging Capital Investment Budgets 2009
81.   Chart: Asia Packaging Capital Investment: Equipment Type
Asian Packaging Equipment/Material Supplier
•   Equipment Sector Review: N America
82.   Chart: Asia Equipment/Supplier Responses by Type
83.   Chart: Asia Equipment/Supplier Sales Q4 2008
84.   Chart: Asia Equipment/Supplier Sales Projections 2009
85.   Chart: Asia Equipment/Supplier Headcount Projections 2009
86.   Chart: Asia Equipment/Supplier Capital Investment Budgets 2009

Ch 4: External Factors
Inflation & Regional Inflation Projections
Trade & Quarterly Export projections for Goods & Services 2008-‘10
GDP Growth & Regional GDP Growth 2007-10
Government Stimulus Packages by Region
•   Brand Owner Growth
•   Retail Growth Sectors
•   Package Manufacturing Growth Sectors
•   Packaging Capital Equipment Demand
Packaging Growth Projection
•   Asia
•   N America
•   Europe

Ch 5: Conclusion
Regional Trade Stimulus – the Asian Response
Competitive Strategies for Packaging
Appendix
87.   Data Tables
•   Sources
•   Index