Public Houses

Market Report Plus 2008, 24th Edition

Publication Date	April 2008
Publisher	Key Note
Product Type	Report
Pages	116
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	KEY00128

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Summary

If 2007 was a dramatic year for the pub trade, then 2008 could be a particularly gloomy one, with trading problems piling up for many pubs.

The scale of the predicted economic downturn the result of a global 'credit crunch' is unclear, but consumer confidence is falling steeply, as are sales of beer in pubs, and the full effects of the ban on smoking in enclosed public places (in force throughout the UK since July 2007) have yet to be measured. These factors mean that Key Note is forecasting a further decline in pub turnover in 2008, similar to the decline seen in 2007.

Despite these declines, the pub market remains a huge one, worth an estimated 16bn in 2007, and the survival of so many traditional venues for eating and drinking (there are around 57,500 pubs across the UK) is perhaps the outstanding feature of the market. Licensing is one area in which the pub market changes only slowly. The widely predicted mayhem of liberalised licensing (i.e. '24hour drinking') did not materialise and the majority of UK pubs have stuck to their original hours of trading.

Food sold in pubs accounts for 33% of the UK market for eating out, and the longterm trend toward pubs making an increasing share of their income from meals, rather than draught beer, is continuing, boosted by the ban on smoking. As a corollary, small 'community' pubs without catering facilities or a suitable outside space for smokers are struggling to survive.

2008 could also bring some dramatic changes in pub ownership. A proposed merger between the UK's two largest pub companies, Punch Taverns and Mitchells & Butlers, would produce a 10,000pub giant, and private equity is poised to play a larger role in the pub market. Also influential would be a proposed takeover by Carlsberg and Heineken of the UK's largest brewer, Scottish & Newcastle, which has a 2,200strong pub estate.

Beyond 2009, Key Note is predicting a modest recovery for the industry as pubs continue to adapt to new consumer demands (e.g. for food, wines and live entertainment) and to various government restrictions.

Content

Executive Summary
- 1. Market Definition
Report Coverage
Market Sectors
- by Ownership
- by Trading Pattern
Market Trends
- Impact of The Beer Orders
- LongTerm Trends in Demand
- Recent Market Trends
Economic Trends
- Population
- Table 1: UK Resident Population Estimates
- by Sex (000), MidYears 20032007
- Gross Domestic Product
- Table 2: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and
- Annual ChainLinked Prices (m), 20032007
- Household Disposable Income
- Table 3: UK Household Disposable Income
- per Capita (), 20032007
- Inflation
- Table 4: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 20032007
- Unemployment
- Table 5: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons
- in The UK (Million), 20032007
Market Position
- The UK
- Overseas
- Public Houses Contents
- Key Note Ltd 2008
- 2. Market Size
The Total Market
- Table 6: Turnover for UK Pubs at Current Prices and Constant 2003 Prices,
- and Number of UK Pubs (m at Rsp and Number), 20032007
- Figure 1: Turnover for UK Pubs at Current Prices
- (m at Rsp), 20032007
by Market Sector
- by Ownership
- Table 7: UK Pubs by Type of Owner
- (Number and %), 2007
- by Trading Pattern
- Traditional Versus Modern
- Destination Versus Community
- Drink Versus Food
- Table 8: Product Mix in The Typical UK Pub
- by Value (m at Rsp and %), 19902008
- 3. Industry Background
Recent History
Number of Companies
Employment
Regional Variations in The Marketplace
- How Robust Is The Market?
Legislation
Key Trade Associations
- Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers
- British Beer & Pub Association
- Independent Family Brewers of Britain
- Other Organisations
- 4. Competitor Analysis
The Marketplace
- Breakup of The big Six
- Growth of National pubcos
- Regional Brewing Consolidation
Market Leaders
- Table 9: The UKs Largest Pub Companies
- by Number of Pubs, 2005 and 2008
- Table 10: The UKs Largest Managed Pub Estates
- by Number of Pubs, 2008
- Public Houses Contents
- Key Note Ltd 2008
- Mitchells & Butlers Plc
- Punch Taverns Plc
- Enterprise Inns Plc
- Greene King Plc
- Jd Wetherspoon Plc
- Marstons Plc
Other Companies
- Other Tenanted/Leased Estates
- Other Managed Estates
- Other Regional Brewers Estates
- Table 11: The UKs Leading Regional Brewers
- by Number of Pubs Owned, 2008
- Late Bars and Nightclubs
outside Suppliers
- The Supply of Beer
- Table 12: The Leading Brewers for The UK Market
- and Their Major Beer Brands, 2008
- The Supply of Other Drinks
- 5. Brand Strategy
Introduction
Leading Brands
- Mitchells & Butlers
- The Laurel Pub Company
- Other Brands
- Table 13: Selected UK Pub Brands and Concepts
- by Number of Outlets, 2008
- unbranded Pubs
Marketing Activity
- Main Media Advertising
- Table 14: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Pubs and PubRestaurants
- (000), Years Ending December 20042007
- Other Marketing and Promotion
- 6. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
- Public Houses Contents
- Key Note Ltd 2008
- 7. Buying Behaviour
Introduction
Attitudes towards Pubs
- Table 15: Changes That Consumers Would like to See in Pubs
- (% of Adults), 2007
- Table 16: Changes That Consumers Would like to See in Pubs
- Underage Drinking, Smoking and Binge Drinking
- (% of Adults), 2007
- Table 17: Changes That Consumers Would like to See in Pubs
- BetterMaintained Toilets, Return to Tradition and Better Food
- (% of Adults), 2007
Occasions for Using Pubs
- Table 18: Use of Pubs in Great Britain by Time and Purpose of Visit
- (% of Adults), 2002, 2006 and 2007
- Table 19: Regular Users of Pubs Weekends, Day Trips, Lunchtime and
- after Work (% of Adults), 2007
- Table 20: Regular Users of Pubs Eating Meals, Celebrations,
- Meeting Friends and Family Occasions (% of Adults), 2007
- Table 21: Regular Users of Pubs Entertainment, Watching Sports
- and Pub Quizzes (% of Adults), 2007
Drinkers of Alcohol
- Table 22: Drinkers of Alcohol by Sex, Age and Social Grade
- (% of Adults Aged 15+), 2007
Favourite Alcoholic Drinks
- Table 23: Favourite Alcoholic Drinks
- (% of Adults), 2005 and 2008
- 8. Current Issues
Recent Market Surveys
Corporate Developments
- 9. The Global Market
Introduction
Equivalent Outlets in The Global Market
Globalisation in Brewing
- Public Houses Contents
- Key Note Ltd 2008
- 10. Forecasts
Introduction
- Population
- Table 24: Forecast UK Resident Population
- by Sex (000), MidYears 20082012
- Gross Domestic Product
- Table 25: Forecast Growth in UK Gross Domestic Product
- in Real Terms (%), 20082012
- Inflation
- Table 26: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 20082012
- Unemployment
- Table 27: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons
- in The UK (Million), 20082012
- Forecasts 2008 to 2012
- Table 28: Forecast Turnover for UK Pubs at Current Prices, and
- Forecast Number of UK Pubs (m at Rsp and Number), 20082012
Market Growth
- Figure 2: Turnover for UK Pubs at Current Prices
- (m at Rsp), 20032012
- Figure 3: Number of Pubs in The UK, 20032012
Future Trends
- Corporate Structure
- General Growth Prospects
- Impact of Legislation
- Adapting to Legislation and Consumer Demand
- 11. Company Profiles
- Enterprise Inns Plc
- Greene King Plc
- Marstons Plc
- Mitchells & Butlers Plc
- Punch Taverns Plc
- Jd Wetherspoon Plc
- 12. Company Financials
- 13. Further Sources
- Associations
- Publications
- General Sources
- Government Sources
- Other Sources
- Bisnode Sources
- Understanding Tgi Data
- Number, Profile, Penetration
- Social Grade
- Standard Region
- Key Note Research
- The Key Note Range of Reports