2007 Tourism sector outlook for Thailand

The recent history of Thailand reflects a tale of remarkable resilience in the face of both natural and political upheavals. Globalysis believes that, in many ways, Thailand has substantially recovered from the 2004 tsunami disaster and achieved strong growth in its tourism sector in 2006 in spite of several challenges the country has faced including mass protests, the political coup in 2006, and recent violent terrorism activity in the country's southern region.

Those who have read of the recent turmoil in the country may be surprised to hear that tourist arrivals to Bangkok, Phuket and greater Thailand has, as whole, exceeded pre-tsunami levels. In 2006, international arrivals reached an estimated 13.8 million, a 20% increase over the 11.5 million visitor arrivals in 2005 (Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand). Assuming no further political turmoil, Globalysis believes that Thailand could see an annual increase in visitor arrivals in 2007.

Looking forward, Thailand shows promise for a further increase in tourist arrivals and resulting revenues in 2007. Reasons for optimism include the government's new efforts to achieve sustainable quality growth, the opening of the new Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok, and further tourism oriented real estate development in Phuket, Bangkok, Koh Samui and other destinations. However, there are also reasons to temper this enthusiasm. The bombings in Bangkok on December 31, 2006, along with the possibility of further violence in the southern regions, and other complications, reveal substantial threats to Thailand's strategic tourism efforts in 2007.

In addition to these internal concerns, Thailand will also face strong competition for tourist dollars from neighboring countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, Macau, Singapore and Hong Kong, as these countries also present very attractive alternatives for tourists visiting the region in 2007. While Thailand certainly possesses unique appeal for the regional and global traveler, the overall picture in Southeast Asia is one of increasing competition for the tourist dollar, as the region takes advantage of and brings to realization the enormous potential for economic development through tourism.

This report offers a current analysis of the outlook on Thailand's tourism sector for 2007. It also includes assessments of its hotel and airline industries, and the interdependence of these industries.