Egypt Tourism Report Q3 2009

Tourism Overview After a slowdown in growth of foreign tourist arrivals in 2008, but still buoyant at 15% year-on-year (y-oy), the tourism sector is experiencing a major slump. The Ministry of Tourism stated that there had been a decline in tourist arrivals of 12% y-o-y in Q109. Moreover, the ministry has agreed to a number of measures to assist the sector at a difficult time, including helping finance promotional campaigns by various tourism operators, part-subsidising empty seats on charter flights from Europe to Egypt, exempting hotel establishments from tourism promotion fees, and shifting the emphasis in advertising campaigns to promoting Egypt as an affordable leisure destination.

Bird Flu Update As of the beginning of June 2009 Egypt had confirmed 27 human deaths caused by the H5N1 bird flu virus, out of a total number of 77 known human infections in Egypt - the largest number outside Asia.

These data also confirm that infections have been on the rise recently (particularly among very small children), with a further 26 people infected in the first five months of 2009. The Egyptian authorities reported that the latest victim of the virus was a four-year-old girl. Of major concern is that the growing number of infections in Egypt raise the prospect that the virus will be spread by humans, which threatens to increase the disease's ability to spread. In April 2009 Egypt began slaughtering roughly 300,000 pigs in the country as a precautionary measure against the spread of the H1N1 virus or swine flu, although no cases have been reported in Egypt.

Forecast Scenario BMI believes the deteriorating economic conditions in key source markets, especially the eurozone, Russia and Central and Eastern Europe, and the UK, are likely to result in a sharp fall in foreign tourist arrivals this year, with a slight pick up in 2010 (and relatively strong growth from 2011). Against a backdrop of additional downward revisions this quarter to GDP growth forecasts in these major markets, BMI expects a significant decline in foreign visitors of the order of -16% y-o-y in 2009. Our revised economic growth forecasts for the eurozone, Russia and the UK are -4.2%, -7.1% and -4.2%, respectively. A slight recovery in real GDP growth, however, is forecast in the eurozone and Russia for 2010.

Cairo International Airport In April 2009 EgyptAir's daily service to New York was the inaugural flight to take off from the new Terminal 3 at Cairo International Airport. From May, all domestic flights starting from Cairo operate from Terminal 3, while from June all EgyptAir flights operate from the same terminal. In April EgyptAir, the country's national carrier, opened its new sales office in Champs-Elysees Avenue, in Paris.

bmi The UK airline bmi, which is a member of Star Alliance, launched it's wide-bodied aircraft, the Airbus A330, on the Cairo-London (Heathrow) route at the beginning of April 2009. The aircraft offers numerous benefits to business travelers, as well as introducing a Premium Economy Class on the Cairo- London route.