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International Retail Spend in the UK

  • Publication Date:July 2013
  • Publisher:Verdict
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:55
  • ISBN:1557279

International Retail Spend in the UK

Introduction

Overseas visitor retail spend will grow by £0.9bn in 2013, owing to an influx of inbound visitors, the popularity of retailers operating in the UK, particularly in the fashion sector, and the weak pound, which remains favourable to overseas visitors. Retailers must look to take advantage of this increasing expenditure by targeting overseas visitors, especially those from China and the Gulf States.

Scope

• Make informed investment decisions using forecasts to 2018 for international retail spend in the UK.
• Learn about our top five markets to target (China, the Gulf States, Russia, Nigeria and Brazil) in order to boost your own sales.
• Understand the different personas of overseas visitors in order to tailor your proposition accordingly.
• Uncover how the retail market is split by sector and see where the potential opportunities for your business are.
• Glean how the retail market is split by value/midmarket/premium/luxury and see where the potential opportunities lie.

Highlights

We forecast overseas visitor spend to grow at a higher rate between 2013 and 2018 compared to the preceding five years. The growing influx of visitors from emerging markets such as China will boost spend, but we expect additional visitors from the likes of South America and other Asian countries in light of their burgeoning middle classes.Despite its prominence, the UK continues to suffer from connectivity issues, with a lack of direct flights, and London's limited airspace restricting visitor numbers from growing further. The rise in air passenger duties and visa restrictions also deter overseas visitors from entering the UK, with mainland Europe remaining more appealing.European countries, such as France, Germany and Ireland, accounted for over 50% of inbound visits to the UK in 2012, and while their spend is lower than our selected top five target markets, the significantly higher visit numbers ensure these tourists cannot be ignored, as failing to appeal to these shoppers will hand sales to other retailers.

Reasons to Buy this Report

• Which overseas visitors should I target in the next five years and what defines these visitors from these territories?
• What are the different tourist personas and how should I actively target these different consumer groups?
• What sectors do overseas visitors to the UK spend the most on? How will this differ in 2018?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY-Key findings-(Untitled sub-section)

-Main conclusions-Overseas visitor spend in retail will hit £9.7bn in 2013, up £0.9bn on 2012
-Missed potential equates to £6bn
-Spending will reach £16.6bn by 2018 as international spend speeds up
-Clothing & footwear accounts for over 50% of international retail spend in the UK
-35.1% of expenditure is in the premium and luxury sectors
-Limitations on overseas visitor expenditure remain
-Retailers must target visitors from five key markets including Brazil and China
-Chinese visitor spend fastest growing and will account for 10.9% of total spend in 2018


RECOMMENDATIONS-Retailers must target visitors more effectively to fight for share of £6.9bn potential growth-Identify key growth markets for UK visitor spend
-Identify different visitor personas and target accordingly
-Market proposition specifically to attract overseas visitors
-Tailor product for overseas visitors in high density tourist locations
-Adapt service proposition to better appeal to visitors


INTERNATIONAL RETAIL SPEND IN THE UK-Major markets for retailers to target-Visitor retail expenditure from five key markets to hit £7.6bn in 2013
-Gulf States is the most mature market
-Highest growth estimated to come from China
-Muted growth for Russian spend
-Brazil and Nigeria are key growth markets of the future
-Visitor spend per head is highest for the Gulf States
-Chinese shopping visitor spend per head achieves strongest gains
-Top five target markets to reach £4bn in 2018

-Chinese visitor-Chinese visitors forecast to have highest expenditure growth…
-…aided by an influx of visitors
-Strong appeal of UK's higher education system creates opportunities for retailers
-Chinese spend boosted by keen interest in luxury goods…
-…as retailers actively target Chinese shoppers

-Gulf States visitor-Visitors from the Gulf States have highest expenditure out of the five markets
-Strong focus on luxury spend
-Retailers tailor their offer to boost spend

-Brazilian visitor-Thriving middle class aids Brazilian expenditure growth
-Import tariffs in Brazil encourage spending when overseas
-British high street brands appeal to Brazilian shoppers

-Russian visitor-Russian visitor spend growth has been muted in the past five years
-Expenditure by Russian tourists and business travellers must be encouraged
-Direct flights with low-cost carriers to boost expenditure, but marginally
-Russian visitor numbers to grow due to government initiative

-Nigerian visitor-Nigeria remains a key growth market for tourism spend due to improved UK access
-Consumers have a strong appetite for international brands
-Nigerian shoppers look for higher quality clothing & accessories
-Nigerian visitors shop across the pricing spectrum
-Retailers actively target Nigerians to drive spending

-Visitor Statistics-Despite attraction of London Olympics, growth in visits slowed in 2012…
-…but 2013 visits expected to rebound
-Key growth markets for inbound visits between 2007 and 2012

-Total spend on retail-Overseas visitor spend on UK retail forecast to rise almost £3.3bn in five years to 2013
-Expenditure previously limited by impact of economic downturn
-Value of British currency remains favourable for some in 2013
-Spotlight on the UK helps attract visitors and drive retail spend
-UK appeal and shopping tourism trend boost spending
-Variety of brands and shopping locations aids growth
-Retail spend per head rises by over £100 between 2008 and 2013
-Spend per head growth remains in high single digits
-Higher growth in retail spend per head from shopping visitors
-Potential to increase total visitor spend by £6,213m…
-…with specific discounts, offers and customer service
-Investment in marketing required to boost brand awareness among visitors

-Tourist spend growth to exceed 70% between 2013 and 2018-International retail spend's share of total UK retail to more than double between 2008 and 2018

-Sector split-Clothing & footwear attract highest spend
-Clothing & footwear accounts for over 50% of retail expenditure
-Accessories, fine jewellery and watches achieve second highest growth
-Food & grocery spend remains broadly stable
-Health & beauty share declines marginally
-Gifts and souvenirs see decline in spend per head

-Expenditure breakdown-Premium and value sectors grow share of overseas visitor spend, squeezing the midmarket
-Value growth boosted by retailers' popularity during the recession
-Few truly value players actively targeting overseas visitors restricts growth potential in coming five years
-Grocers dominate the UK value market but have little exposure to overseas tourists
-Overseas visitors to opt for quality and limit spending at value retailers
-Midmarket share declines to 44.8% in 2013 due to trading down
-Midmarket to remain squeezed as overseas visitors opt for premium purchases
-Premium and luxury sectors achieved share growth in the past five years
-UK department stores crucial to luxury sector
-Premium and luxury sectors to boost share growth further between 2013 and 2018

-Tourist personas -Trip of a lifetime
-No expense spared
-Gift giver
-Time poor, cash rich

-Barriers to retail expenditure growth-Cancellation of third Heathrow runway ensures UK connectivity issues remain
-Air passenger duties rise, deterring overseas visitors
-Lack of direct flights proves detrimental to UK tourism and trade
-Opportunities for other London airports to boost flight numbers and visitors…
-…with regional UK airports looking to bolster services too…
-…but airlines doubt regional UK airport appeal
-European cities benefit from limited London airspace impacting UK tourism
-Potential abolishment of luxury tax in China will negatively impact UK tourist spend
-Visa restrictions for Chinese visitors are detrimental to sales opportunities
-Danger of impacting expenditure from Brazilian visitors if visa restrictions are imposed


APPENDIX-Inbound visits
-Methodology
-Further reading
-Ask the analyst
-Disclaimer

LIST OF TABLES
-Table: Retail expenditure in the UK from top five target markets (£m), 2008-13e
-Table: Visitor spend per head in the UK from top five target markets (£), 2008-13e
-Table: Shopping visitor spend per head in the UK from top five target markets (£), 2008-13e
-Table: Inbound visits to the UK (000) for the top 10 countries, 2012
-Table: Top 11 highest growth in visits (000), 2012 on 2007
-Table: Total retail expenditure from inbound visitors (£m), 2008-13e
-Table: Average exchange rates between British pound, Chinese yuan, US dollar and the euro for January 1 to June 1, 2007 and 2013
-Table: Expenditure breakdown of international retail spend in the UK (£m), 2008, 2013e and 2018e
-Table: Inbound visits to the UK (000), 2012

LIST OF FIGURES
-Figure: Retail expenditure in the UK from top five target markets (£m), 2008 and 2013e
-Figure: Visitor spend per head and shopping visitor spend per head for top five target markets (£), 2013e
-Figure: Retail expenditure in the UK from top five target markets (£m), 2013e and 2018e
-Figure: Top five target markets' share of retail expenditure by overseas visitors to the UK (%), 2008 and 2018e
-Figure: IWC Portuguese Yacht Club Chronograph Laureus Edition
-Figure: Total inbound visits to the UK (000), 2008-13e
-Figure: Total retail expenditure from inbound visitors (£bn), 2008-13e
-Figure: Retail expenditure from inbound visitors as a proportion of total retail expenditure in the UK (%), 2008 and 2013e
-Figure: Spend per head on retail from total inbound visitors (£), 2008-13e
-Figure: Spend per head on retail from inbound visitors who shop (£), 2008-13e
-Figure: Total retail expenditure from inbound visitors (£bn), 2008, 2013e and 2018e
-Figure: Retail expenditure from inbound visitors as a proportion of total retail expenditure in the UK (%), 2008, 2013e and 2018e
-Figure: Share of retail expenditure from tourists by sector for 2008, 2013e and 2018e
-Figure: Share of retail expenditure from tourists by sector for 2008, 2013e and 2018e
-Figure: Shopping tourist spend per head by sector for 2008 and 2013e
-Figure: Burberry's London flagship store on Regent Street
-Figure: Share of retail expenditure from tourists by sector (%), 2008, 2013e and 2018e
-Figure: Tourist personas, 2013
-Figure: Barriers to tourist retail expenditure growth in the UK, 2013-18
-Figure: Advantages of scrapping air passenger duties
-Figure: European flight destination hubs, 2013
-Figure: Burberry's small Haymarket check hobo bag, 2013
-Figure: Estimated retail expenditure that the UK is missing out on



Companies Mentioned

Admiral Group plc, CMS Energy Corporation, ERGO Versicherungsgruppe AG, Fenwick, Hutchison 3G UK Limited, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, Randstad Holding nv, The TJX Companies, Inc.
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