Oman Tourism Report Q3 2009

Oman might still lay claim to being one of the 'great undiscovered destinations' but that position is very likely to change in the coming years. While tourism - at least from countries outside the Persian Gulf region - is still only new, there has been a successful effort to build the profile and attract visitors to this once closed nation.

Oman has smaller oil and gas reserves than many of its neighbours and consequently has had to face the challenge of diversifying its economy earlier than most. Tourism was identified several years ago as one of the new industries on which the Sultanate will invest. Funds have been allocated both to infrastructure within the country and marketing efforts overseas.

The most recent initiative is a regional one. Iran and Oman have entered into an agreement to promote tourism between the two countries and to undertake joint promotions to third countries.

Oman plans to attract 12 million visitors annually by 2020, an almost fourfold increase on the current level. The focal point for decision making is how it can achieve this increase while maintaining the 'authentic' character of the Sultanate. Lore Koening, director of sales and marketing at the Chedi hotel in Muscat put it this way in a recent interview, 'People come to Oman because they are interested in the country, its culture and its history. They don't come because there is a cheap deal going and they will get guaranteed sunshine. That is not our market.' At this point the majority of tourists to Oman come from other Gulf countries to the coast on the southwest corner of the country. This area catches the Indian Ocean monsoon during the summer months between June and September. While most of the gulf region suffers from extreme, dry heat during that time, the Dhofar Province has a cool and misty summer. Travellers from outside the region may not see the attraction of a cool, damp 25 degrees Celsius (oC) summer holiday.

The potential growth in tourist numbers, however, must come from further afield. This is happening and it is changing the balance among the arriving visitors. This newer part of the tourism market has been impacted by the global financial crisis, with the result that visitor numbers, hotel occupancy and sector employment are all down on the levels from the same time a year ago.

The business environment in Oman is exemplary and will remain so, as the government, aware of its own economic limitations, seeks to attract further investment flows. The high-inflation environment will be a deterrent to some, but ongoing ample liquidity and government spending, as well as good medium- to long-term growth potential, should be sufficient to counteract this. The legal system is relatively transparent and clear, and there is no history of disputes involving foreign investors. At the same time, corruption levels are lower than in other countries in the Middle East, and the Omani bureaucracy is regarded as the most efficient in the Persian Gulf region. The sultanate ranks 49th globally in the World Bank's 2008 Doing Business survey, and 47th in our own business environment rankings.

Like other GCC states, Oman is looking largely to spend its way out of recession. The government has signalled it will act where needed. The 2009 budget, as unveiled in January anticipates a deficit of OMR810bn, which would equate to around 5% of gross domestic product (GDP). BMI believes that the likelihood of increased spending and lower income will push the deficit further into the red. We expect a budget deficit of 8.5% for this year, which will ease slightly in 2010. Given the strong financial assets and five years of prudent saving, this deficit is easily manageable.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Oman Tourism Industry SWOT
• Oman Political SWOT
• Oman Economic SWOT
• Oman Business Environment SWOT
• Industry Forecast Scenario
  • Table: Oman's Tourism Industry, 2004-2013 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
• Market Overview - Travel
• Commercial Airlines
• Airports
• Road Transport
• Ferries
• Rail
• Oil Price Forecasts
  • Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q408-Q409 (US$/bbl)
  • Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2006-2013 (US$/bbl)
• Market Overview - Hospitality
• Accommodation
• Developments
• Tourism Infrastructure
• Currency Forecast
  • Table: Oman - Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
• Global Assumptions
  • Table: Global Assumptions, 2007-2013
  • Table: Developed States GDP Growth, 2008-2010
  • Table: Emerging Markets GDP Growth, 2008-2010
  • Table: Commodity Prices, 2007-2010
• Company Profiles
• Oman Air
• Al Batinah Hotels Company
• BMI Forecast Modelling
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
• Tourism Industry
• Sources