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Singapore Tourism Report Q4 2012

  • Publication Date:October 2012
  • Publisher:Business Monitor
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:70
  • ISBN:156643

Singapore Tourism Report Q4 2012


Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates.

The Singapore Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the local tourism
industry, bolstered by rapidly growing demand from emerging markets such as China and Russia.
However, we caution that the stellar growth rate in tourist arrivals achieved over 2010 and 2011 may
moderate as we move into 2013 if fears of a double-dip global economic recession come to pass.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the
leading players in the local tourism sector (ie: airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the
tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the Singaporean market.
Arrivals over January-May 2012 increased by 12.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 5,924,379, according to data
from the Singapore Tourist Board (STB). Growth has been seen from all market regions expect Africa,
with Indonesia remaining the most important inbound source market, contributing 1,112,527 tourists, or
18.5% of total arrivals, over the first four months of the year. Arrivals from Indonesia went up by 13.4%
y-o-y over January-May.
As such, 2012 looks set to be another strong year for Singapore's fast-growing tourism industry, in line
with BMI's views. We forecast 14.29mn tourist arrivals and SGD23.5bn (US$18.35bn) in tourism
receipts this year, which appear to be accurate projections based on current monthly trends. The STB has
said it ‘is in the midst of transiting to a new data processing system for tracking visitor statistics' and the
‘latest tourism data may not be immediately available'. Therefore there is no more recent data than May
2012 available. Consequently, BMI will maintain its forecasts in the absence of any clear indication from
the STB of how tourist arrivals have progressed over the summer months.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI believes the decision by Carnival Corporation in September to set up a Singapore office
underlines the significant growth potential on offer by the Asian cruise market over the coming
years. BMI expects a steady increase in the number of cruise passengers arriving in the country
through to 2016.
- BMI believes the closure of Changi Airport's Budget Terminal on September 25 could lead to a
short-term drop in the number of low-cost airline passengers choosing to use Singapore as
capacity is reduced, though this will be offset by a long-term gain as the airport is modernised
and expanded. Following the closure of the Budget Terminal, it will be demolished and replaced
with the new Terminal 4, which will be operational in 2017.
Executive Summary . 5
Singapore Tourism SWOT 6
Singapore Political SWOT 7
Singapore Economic SWOT ... 8
Singapore Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10
Arrivals .. 10
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016 .. 11
Accommodation .... 11
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 . 12
Expenditure . 12
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 ... 13
Inbound Tourism ... 13
Table: Inbound Tourism By Region, 2009-2016 15
Table: Inbound Tourism By Country, 2009-2016 (‘000) ... 15
Outbound Tourism 16
Table: Outbound Tourism By Region, 2009-2016 ... 17
Table: Outbound Tourism By Country, 2009-2016 (‘000) 17
Market Overview - Travel . 19
Commercial Airlines .. 19
Table: Key Low-Cost Airlines In Singapore . 21
Cruises ... 21
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 24
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) ... 24
Market Overview - Hospitality ... 32
Accommodation .... 32
Accommodation Developments . 32
Integrated Resorts . 33
H5N1 Virus Update . 35
Risk/Reward Ratings ... 37
Table: Asia Pacific Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings . 37
BMI's Security Ratings ... 37
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings ... 38
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .. 39
South East Asia Security Overview 39
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ... 39
South East Asia In A Global Context .. 39
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security .. 40
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia .. 43
Other Regional Threats ... 47
China-US Rivalry In South East Asia . 49
Outlook For South East Asia .... 51
Global Assumptions ... 52
Singapore Tourism Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017 ... 52
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y .. 53
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 .... 54
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 . 54
Developed States ... 54
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) 55
Emerging Markets . 55
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) ... 56
Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%) ... 57
Company Profiles ... 58
Singapore Airlines 58
Tiger Airways .. 60
Demographic Outlook . 62
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) .... 63
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 64
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .... 65
Table: Singapore's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 .... 65
BMI Methodology ... 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 66
Tourism Industry ... 66
Tourism Ratings - Methodology .... 67
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators .... 68
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 69
Sources .. 69
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