Turkey Tourism Report Q3
2012

Turkey Tourism Report Q3 2012

The Turkey Tourism Report examines the latest performance of the tourism sector and looks at its longterm potential. The rate of growth in foreign tourism broadly slowed during 2011, after an impressive start earlier in the year (probably boosted by the Arab Spring, which affected tourism rivals in the region such as Egypt and Tunisia), but remained strong at just under 10% compared with 2010. In the short term, BMI anticipates a sharp slowdown in the sector, mainly due to extremely weak economic conditions in the eurozone - a major source region. Also, regional political instability, particular the situation escalating in Syria, which has a border with Turkey, is likely to deter visitors. This represents a reversal of fortunes for Turkey, as BMI believes that the sector benefited from the regional instability in 2011. Provisional figures for January-April 2012 show a decline of just under 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in foreign visitor arrivals. (It should be noted that during the base period in 2011, there was significant growth of over 21% y-o-y in arrivals). Notably, out of the top-10 source markets, there was a substantial fall in arrivals from Iran and Syria (-42% and -32% y-o-y respectively), while the key source market, Germany, provided a 6% fall. Visitors from Europe as a whole fell by 5% y-o-y, though there was slight positive growth in the number of arrivals from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In the hospitality sector, provisional data for Q112 show a 7% y-o-y fall in room nights sold. Foreign tourist nights, accounting for 65% of the total, fell by a sizeable 11% compared with Q111, but domestic tourist nights were up slightly. Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:

• Although BMI expected growth in foreign arrivals to slow this year, poor data for the first four months of 2012 have contributed to a revised growth forecast of 2.5% for 2012, down from 6.1% previously. BMI has also reduced the forecast for 2013 from 7.8% to 6.0%.
• BMI's eurozone real GDP growth forecast for 2012 has been lowered slightly to -0.6% from -0.5%, rising to only 1.0% growth (down from 1.2% previously) in 2013. For Russia, the second most important source market (and of growing relative importance), BMI has revised up the growth forecast for 2012 to 3.4%.
• Domestic political violence remains a threat to tourism. In March, in a large-scale operation by Turkish forces against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the province of Sirnak, seven Kurdish rebels and six Turkish police officers were killed. In May, a police officer was killed and more than a dozen civilians were injured in an explosion outside a police station in the central province of Kayseri.
• Turkish Airlines (THY) continues to record strong growth in passenger numbers. In January- April 2012, it achieved a nearly 19% y-o-y increase in passenger traffic. In 2011, growth in sales revenue was robust at over 40% but operating profit was down sharply.

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Turkey Tourism SWOT
• Turkey Political SWOT
• Turkey Economic SWOT
• Turkey Business Environment SWOT
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Arrivals
  • Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016
• Accommodation
  • Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
• Expenditure
  • Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
• Inbound Tourism
  • Table: Inbound Tourism , 2009-2016
• Outbound Tourism
  • Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016
• Market Overview - Travel
• Commercial Airlines
  • Table: Key Turkish Commercial Airlines
• Global Oil Products Price Outlook
  • Table: Oil Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
• Market Overview - Hospitality
• Accommodation Developments
• Health Tourism
• Tourism Infrastructure
• Regional Case Study: Accor
  • Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, December 2011
• Business Environment Outlook
  • Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
• BMI's Security Ratings
  • Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
  • Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
• Turkey's Security Risk Ratings
• Europe Security Overview
• Europe In A Global Context
• Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
• Global Assumptions
  • Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2016
  • Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, % change y-o-y
  • Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
  • Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
• Developed States
• Turkey Tourism Report Q3
• © Business Monitor International Ltd Page
  • Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
• Emerging Markets
  • Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
  • Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2013 (%)
• Company Profiles
• Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International
• Turkish Airlines
• Demographic Outlook
  • Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  • Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
  • Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  • Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
• BMI Methodology
• How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
• Tourism Industry
• Tourism Ratings - Methodology
  • Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
  • Table: Weighting Of Components
• Sources