Forecast Insight: Asthma/COPD

Little long-term future for long-acting single-agent inhalers?

Publication Date	August 2008
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	125
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT13072

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Summary

Introduction

The respiratory market will continue to grow with the same rate over the next few years, with a slight dip between 2012 and 2015 due to the patent expiries of leading products. Growth is driven by the expansion of sales in existing classes, the launch of major new products with safety and convenience advantages, and the results of several landmark trials.

Scope

Indication based forecasts for asthma/COPD products and significant pipeline drugs
Assessment of country-specific drivers and resistors likely to impact the market
Future market outlook for individual products taking into account key market events, in particular patent expiry and competitor launch dates
Market overview by geographical area, with value analysis of clinical and commercial factors underlying product performance

Highlights

Datamonitor expects Asthma/COPD sales in the seven major markets to grow to about $25 billion annually by 2017, with a dip between 2012 and 2015 due to patent expiries of key products. The ICS/LABA class is set to remain the leading class by value throughout, while the LAMA market will experience the strongest growth, particularly in COPD.
Novartis/Schering-Plough's once-daily ICS/LABA product will be the top-selling single brand in the seven major markets in 2017. However, the combined sales of GSK's Advair franchise (Advair/Seretide and once-daily Beyond Advair) will dominate the asthma/COPD market over the next ten years.

The phase-out of CFC-containing inhalers in the US after 2008 will have a big impact on the market for short-acting beta2-agonists (SABAs), increasing this class' size significantly. The main beneficiary is expected to be Teva/UCB's Salamol/ProAir due to its favorable price compared with other marketed HFA SABAs.

Reasons to Purchase

Identify key opportunities and threats that will impact the use and uptake of new and existing products
Quantify the future size and scope of the asthma/COPD market and predict the performance of key compounds
Understand and capitalize on clinical unmet needs in the market through both lifecycle management of marketed drugs and new product development

Content

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Strategic scoping and focus
- Datamonitor insight into the disease market
- Contributing experts
- Related reports
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
- Market definition for this report
- Indication sales split
- Current seven major market assessment
- The asthma/COPD market totaled almost $20 billion in 2007
- Advair/Seretide tops the market with sales of $5.8 billion
- Short-acting beta2-agonist (SABA) class reached highest number of standard units sold
- The US was the largest market with most rapid growth between 2003 and 2007
- Future seven major market assessment
- Comparison with previous forecast
- Datamonitor expects the asthma/COPD market to reach sales of almost $25 billion
- Novartis/Schering-Ploughs once-daily ICS/LABA product predicted to be best-selling product
- Short-acting beta2-agonist (SABA) class will continue selling highest number of standard units
- Market growth in most countries to slow down, except in Japan
- Rest of the World snapshot
- Rest of the world sales account for one-fifth of the respiratory market
- Advair/Seretide also best-selling product in small and emerging markets with sales of almost $1.3 billion
CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS
- Launch of generics continue to be difficult across the respiratory market
- Nebulized drugs represent a small share of the overall respiratory market
- Nebulized corticosteroids
- Nebulized bronchodilators
- Nebulized short-acting bronchodilator combinations
- ICS/LABA combinations
- Combination patents are under fire
- LABA safety issues to threaten ICS/LABA combinations?
- Advair/Seretide (fluticasone/salmeterol)
- COPD indications are gained and expanded
- Forecast assumptions for Advair/Seretide (7MM)
- Symbicort (budesonide/formoterol)
- Symbicort faces an uphill struggle in the US
- Forecast assumptions for Symbicort (7MM)
- Foster (beclometasone/formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for Foster (Europe only)
- Overview of once-daily ICS/LABA combination products
- GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis/Schering-Ploughs race to launch the first once-daily ICS/LABA combination product
- QMF149 (mometasone/indacaterol)
- Forecast assumptions for QMF149 (7MM)
- Beyond Advair (fluticasone furoate/642444)
- Forecast assumptions for Beyond Advair (7MM)
- Overview of me-too ICS/LABA combination products
- Two me-too ICS/LABA combination products are coming close to regulatory filing
- Flutiform (fluticasone/formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for Flutiform (7MM)
- MFF258 (mometasone/formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for MFF258 (US and Europe only)
- Alvesco combo (ciclesonide/formoterol)
- Oral anti-inflammatories
- Singulair (montelukast)
- Multiple setbacks for montelukast franchise
- Forecast assumptions for Singulair (7MM)
- Accolate (zafirlukast)
- Forecast assumptions for Accolate (7MM)
- Onon (pranlukast)
- Forecast assumptions for Onon (Japan only)
- Long-acting anticholinergics (LAMAs)
- Spiriva (tiotropium bromide)
- Spiriva Respimat has entered the market
- Forecast assumptions for Spiriva (7MM)
- Novel LAMA pipeline has not moved much since last forecast
- Forecast assumptions for aclidinium bromide (US and Europe only)
- Forecast assumptions for glycopyrrolate (7MM)
- Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS)
- Traditional inhaled corticosteroids
- Forecast assumptions for Flixotide/Flovent (7MM)
- Forecast assumptions for all beclometasone-based products and Azmacort (7MM)
- New once-daily corticosteroids
- Alvesco and Asmanexs battle over the once-daily ICS market
- Forecast assumptions for Alvesco (7MM)
- Asmanex (mometasone)
- Forecast assumptions for Asmanex (7MM)
- Nebulized corticosteroids
- Pulmicort Respules (budesonide)
- Success of Pulmicort Respules under threat
- Forecast assumptions for Pulmicort Respules (nebulized) (7MM)
- Unit Dose Budesonide
- Forecast assumptions for Unit Dose Budesonide (UDB) (US only)
- Long-acting beta2-agonists (LABAs)
- Serevent (salmeterol) and Foradil (formoterol)
- Forecast assumptions for Foradil (US and Europe only)
- Once-daily LABA pipeline has not moved much since last forecast
- Forecast assumptions for indacaterol (7MM)
- Forecast assumptions for GlaxoSmithKlines LABA (7MM)
- Forecast assumptions for carmoterol (Europe only)
- Nebulized LABA products
- Two nebulized LABA products were launched in 2007
- Brovanas new Medicare billing code may give the drug an advantage in the short term
- Forecast assumptions for Brovana (US only)
- Forecast assumptions for Perforomist (US only)
- Biologics
- Xolair (omalizumab)
- Forecast assumptions for Xolair (7MM)
- Short-acting bronchodilators (SABAs and SAMAs)
- Short-acting anticholinergics (SAMAs)
- Forecast assumptions for Atrovent (7MM)
- Short-acting beta2-agonists (SABAs)
- US CFC-HFA switch in full swing
- Forecast assumptions for (levo)salbutamol HFA products (US and Europe only)
- Xopenex nebulized (levosalbutamol)
- Sales of nebulized Xopenex do not seem to be affected by launch of nebulized LABAs so far
- Reduced Medicare reimbursement rate for Xopenex nebulized may impact sales in the US
- Forecast assumptions for Xopenex nebulized (US only)
- Short-acting beta-2 agonist/short-acting anticholinergic (SABA/SAMA) combinations
- Combivent (Ipratropium bromide/salbutamol)
- Forecast assumptions for Combivent and Duoneb (US and Europe only)
- Long-acting beta2-agonist/long-acting anticholinergic (LABA/LAMA) combinations
- QVA149 (indacaterol/glycopyrrolate)
- Forecast assumptions for QVA149 (7MM)
- Bifunctional muscarinic antagonist and beta2-agonist (MABA)
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Articles
- Press releases
- Guidelines
- Datamonitor reports
- Appendices
APPENDIX A MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
- New product launches
- Patent expiries
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
- Standard units
- Japanese market data
- Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
- Forecast methodology
APPENDIX B
- Contributing experts
- Report methodology
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About the Infectious Disease and Respiratory (ID&R) analysis team
- Disclaimer