Novartis AG: PharmaVitae Profile

Publication Date	July 2009
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	123
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT14128

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Summary

Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Novartis in the prescription pharma sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Reasons to Purchase

Benchmark Novartis's performance against key rivals in the prescription pharmaceutical sector
Assess Novartis's strategy of diversification from the typical Big Pharma growth model, including its movement into the generics market via Sandoz
Analyze the key drivers which will allow Novartis to record the second highest prescription sales CAGR across the Big Pharma peer set over 2008-14

Content

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
About the PharmaVitae team
Chapter 1 About this profile
- PharmaVitae Explorer database
Chapter structure
- Executive summary
- Quarterly news update
- Company introduction
- Company sales
- Company financials
- Key products and competitors
- Data sourcing
- Sales data
- Analyst consensus
Chapter 2 Executive summary
- Key findings
- Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate performance, 2002-14
- Financial performance, 2002-14
- Novartis: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance
- Strategic insight
- Effective portfolio lifecycle management shapes robust outlook for Novartis
- Glivec/Gleevec now positioned as flagship Novartis product
- Core portfolio strengthened by prolific launch schedule since '05
- Effective management of branded Prescription portfolio underscores robust sales growth performance
- Breadth of prescription pharma portfolio provides greater insulation against generic erosion
- Bucking the trend to embrace generics - emergence of Sandoz
- Aggressive M&A activity drives growth and develops company strategy
- Sandoz positioned as front-runner in emerging biosimilars market
- Diversification remains corporate mantra at Novartis
- Vaccines - Chiron
- Alcon: diversification gathers pace
- SWOT analysis
- Strengths
- Impressive portfolio management / L/C/E configuration driven by robust core portfolio and strong late stage R&D pipeline
- Diversified Prescription pharmaceutical offering comprising core branded division, Sandoz generics business and vaccine portfolio
- Sandoz positioned as second largest generics player globally and forerunner in biosimilars arena
- Branded portfolio includes numerous best in class products, typified by Glivec/Gleevec in CML/GIST market
- Weaknesses
- Movement into diabetes market curtailed by failure of Galvus
- Opportunities
- Potential to assume strong positions in new therapy areas via late stage pipeline products
- Enhance front-running position of Sandoz in biosimilars market
- Acquisition of Alcon - further diversifies Novartis's healthcare offering builds leadership in ophthalmics
- Additional M&A activity in both branded & generic markets
- Threats
- Loss of patent exclusivity for Diovan/Co-Diovan from 2011 onwards, plus generic erosion to other brands
- Risk of pipeline attrition - heightened by significant proportion of total launch revenues contributed by just three products
- Threat of over-diversification to create lower risk but lower value company
- Alcon acquisition reduces Novartis's financial and strategic flexibility
- Table of figures
Chapter 3 Quarterly news update
- Product developments
- Deals and alliances
- Product deals
- Technology deals
- M&A activity
- Company announcements
- Future product milestones
Chapter 4 Company introduction
- Key findings
- Background
- Key corporate developments
- M&A history
- Ciba Geigy and Sandoz
- Push into generics market
- Sandoz
- Movement into vaccines/diagnostics
- Chiron
- Alcon deal demonstrates further diversification
- One eye on Alcon: a strong fit with Novartis Ophthalmics
- Recent M&A in branded Prescription segment
Chapter 5 Company sales
- Key findings
- Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2002-14
- Product analysis
- Product analysis, 2002-08
- Product analysis, 2008-14
- Therapy area analysis
- Geographic analysis
- Launch/core/expiry analysis
- Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis
- Launch analysis, 2008-14
- Core analysis, 2008-14
- Expiry analysis, 2008-14
- Generics analysis, 2008-14
- Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2008-14
- Molecule type analysis
- Externalization analysis
Chapter 6 Company financials
- Key findings
- Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2002-08
- Operating costs and profit analysis
- Operating costs and profit analysis, 2002-08
- Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2002-08
- Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2008-14
- Operating costs and profit analysis, 2008-14
Chapter 7 Key products and competitors
- Key findings
- Overview
- Oncology
- Glivec/Gleevec
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background/Initial market entry
- Additional indication approvals/post-launch clinical studies
- Market position
- Zometa (includes Aclasta)
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Market position & competitor products
- Alternative branding as Aclasta in osteoporosis/Paget's disease markets
- Femara
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Market position and competitor products
- Tasigna
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Market position and competitor products
- Expansion into GIST market
- Cardiovascular
- Diovan/Co-Diovan
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Market position and competitor products
- Tekturna/Rasilez
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Exforge
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Market position and commercial potential
- Respiratory
- QMF149
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Commercial potential
- QVA149
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Commercial potential
- Central Nervous System
- FTY720
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Commercial potential
- Other
- Lucentis
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
- Market position and competitor products
- Off-label use of Avastin acts as barrier to sales growth
- Exjade
- Overview
- Sales forecast
- Product background
Chapter 8 Appendix
- R&D pipeline
- Abbreviations
- Exchange rates
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- Table 1: Novartis - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance
- Table 2: Novartis key product developments, Q1 2009
- Table 3: Novartis product deals and alliances, Q1 2009
- Table 4: Novartis technology deals and alliances, Q1 2009
- Table 5: Novartis M&A activity, Q1 2009
- Table 6: Novartis company announcements, Q1 2009
- Table 7: Novartis future product milestones, 2009-11
- Table 8: Novartis product portfolio overview ($m), 2002-08
- Table 9: Novartis product portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14
- Table 10: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2008-14
- Table 11: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2008-14
- Table 12: Novartis launch portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14
- Table 13: Novartis core portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14
- Table 14: Novartis expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14
- Table 15: Novartis (Sandoz) generics portfolio overview ($m), 2008-14
- Table 16: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2008-14
- Table 17: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2008-14
- Table 18: Total Novartis sales by business unit ($m), 2002-08
- Table 19: Novartis operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-08
- Table 20: Novartis operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-08
- Table 21: Novartis operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2008-14
- Table 22: Novartis operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2008-14
- Table 23: Key products overview
- Table 24: Glivec/Gleevec: overview
- Table 25: Glivec/Gleevec: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 26: Zometa (includes Aclasta): overview
- Table 27: Zometa (includes Aclasta): sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 28: Femara: overview
- Table 29: Femara: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 30: Tasigna: overview
- Table 31: Tasigna: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 32: Diovan/Co-Diovan: overview
- Table 33: Diovan: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 34: Co-Diovan: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 35: Overview of leading ARB products, global sales, 2008-14 ($m)
- Table 36: Tekturna: overview
- Table 37: Tekturna/Rasilez: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 38: Exforge: overview
- Table 39: Exforge: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 40: QMF149: overview
- Table 41: QMF149: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 42: QVA149: overview
- Table 43: QVA149: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 44: FTY720: overview
- Table 45: FTY720: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 46: Lucentis: overview
- Table 47: Lucentis: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 48: Exjade: overview
- Table 49: Exjade: sales forecast ($m), 2008-14
- Table 50: Novartis's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration)
- Table 51: Exchange rates, 2009
List of Figures
- Figure 1: The PharmaVitae Explorer
- Figure 2: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2002-14
- Figure 3: Novartis's financial performance ($m), 2002-14
- Figure 4: Novartis L/C/E configuration versus Big Pharma peer set ($m), 2008-14
- Figure 5: Sales derived from products launched since 2005 ($m) 2008-14
- Figure 6: 2008 Prescription sales derived from blockbuster products positioned in expiry portfolio (%)
- Figure 7: Sandoz geographic expansion & key M&A activity, 2002-14 ($m)
- Figure 8: Novartis's diversification strategy
- Figure 9: Synergies between Novartis and Alcon
- Figure 10: Novartis SWOT analysis
- Figure 11: Sandoz M&A history, 2001-08
- Figure 12: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2002-14
- Figure 13: Key product sales ($m), 2002-14
- Figure 14: Novartis key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2002-08
- Figure 15: Novartis key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2008-14
- Figure 16: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2002-14
- Figure 17: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2002-14
- Figure 18: Novartis launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2008-14
- Figure 19: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2002-14
- Figure 20: Novartis prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2002-14
- Figure 21: Novartis operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-14
- Figure 22: Continued dominance of Glivec/Gleevec in CML market, 2001-14 ($m)
- Figure 23: Aromatase inhibitor market share by product, 2001-2014 ($m)