The Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2012

Strategic Analysis of The Sales Outlook for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech

Publication Date	December 2007
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	160
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT09521

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Summary

Introduction

Based on an analysis of 43 companies and 1,200+ products, Datamonitor forecasts that pharmaceutical industry ethical sales will increase at a modest 3.2% CAGR 2006 to 2012. However, behind this industry average figure there are strategic segments of the market that offer double-digit growth rates through barriers against generic competition and the opportunity for aggressive indication broadening.

Scope

Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook to 2012 for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech
Quantitative analysis of the revenue balance of launches and expiries for each peer set member to 2012
Assessment of current and forecast 2012 therapy area sales and molecule type focus for each peer set member

Highlights

Faced with failing growth, Big Pharma is expected to pursue strategic options including operational cost efficiencies, M&A with other Big Pharma companies, biotech, Mid Pharma CNS players and/or generics manufacturers and acquisitional moves outside of 'pharma space' to increase presence in medical devices, diagnostics and consumer healthcare.

Reasons to Purchase

Understand the strategic motives behind the recent wave of Big Pharma acquisitions of monoclonal antibody companies
Identify the rare examples of promising high growth CNS products located in the Mid Pharma peer set
Learn how biotech faces slowing growth momentum due to commercial pressures on therapeutic proteins

Content

Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Key Findings
- Introduction To The Pharmavitae Universe
- Summary of Analysis
- Pharmavitae Universe And Peer Set Overviews
- Pharmavitae Universe Overview
- Big Pharma Overview
- Mid Pharma Overview
- Biotech Overview
- Japan Pharma Overview
- Peer Set Analysis
- The Pharmavitae Universe Will Grow At A Very Modest 2006-12 Cagr of 3.2%
- Peer Sets Will Exhibit Significantly Different Growth Rates Over 2006-12
- Company Analysis
- Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Company, 2006-12
- Company 2006 Sales X Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12 Matrix
- Peer Sets Occupy Discrete Regions of The 2006 Sales X 2006-12 Cagr Matrix
- Scale Limit of The 2006 Sales X 2006-12 Cagr Matrix
- Therapy Area Analysis
- Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Therapy Area, 2006-12
- Therapy Area Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12
- Peer Set Therapy Area Focus, 2006
- Company Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12, Predicted On Basis of Therapy Area Focus
- Molecule Type Analysis
- Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Molecule Type, 2006-12
- Molecule Type Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12
- Peer Set Molecule Type Focus, 2006
- Company Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12, Predicted On The Basis of Molecule Type
- Degree of Small Molecule Focus Is A Key Determinant of Generic Risk
- Launches And Expiries Analysis
- Launch / Core / Expiry (Lce) Methodology
- Company Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
- The Rest of This Report
Chapter 2 Big Pharma
- Key Findings
- Big Pharma Introduction
- Big Pharma Members
- Big Pharma Overview
- Big Pharma Sales Outlook
- Big Pharma Sales Forecasts, 2006-12
- Big Pharma Peer Set Sales Forecast, 2006-12
- Big Pharma Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12
- Big Pharma Change In Annual Sales, 2006-12
- Big Pharma Therapy Area Analysis
- Big Pharma By Therapy Area Sales, 2006
- Big Pharma By Therapy Area Sales, 2012
- Big Pharma Molecule Type Analysis
- Big Pharma By Molecule Type Focus, 2006
- Big Pharma By Molecule Type Focus, 2012
- Big Pharma Launches And Expiries Analysis
- Big Pharma Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
- Big Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
Chapter 3 Mid Pharma
- Key Findings
- Mid Pharma Introduction
- Mid Pharma Members
- Mid Pharma Overview
- Mid Pharma Sales Outlook
- Mid Pharma Sales Forecasts, 2006-12
- Mid Pharma Peer Set Sales Forecast, 2006-12
- Mid Pharma Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12
- Mid Pharma Change In Annual Sales, 2006-12
- Mid Pharma Therapy Area Analysis
- Mid Pharma By Therapy Area Sales, 2006
- Mid Pharma By Therapy Area Sales, 2012
- Mid Pharma Molecule Type Analysis
- Mid Pharma By Molecule Type Focus, 2006
- Mid Pharma By Molecule Type Focus, 2012
- Mid Pharma Launches And Expiries Analysis
- Mid Pharma Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
- Mid Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
Chapter 4 Biotech
- Key Findings
- Biotech Introduction
- Biotech Members
- Biotech Overview
- Biotech Sales Outlook
- Biotech Sales Forecasts, 2006-12
- Biotech Peer Set Sales Forecast, 2006-12
- Biotech Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12
- Biotech Change In Annual Sales, 2006-12
- Biotech Therapy Area Analysis
- Biotech By Therapy Area Sales, 2006
- Biotech By Therapy Area Sales, 2012
- Biotech Molecule Type Analysis
- Biotech By Molecule Type Focus, 2006
- Biotech By Molecule Type Focus, 2012
- Biotech Launches And Expiries Analysis
- Biotech Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
- Biotech Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
Chapter 5 Japan Pharma
- Key Findings
- Japan Pharma Introduction
- Japan Pharma Members
- Japan Pharma Overview
- Japan Pharma Sales Outlook
- Japan Pharma Sales Forecasts, 2006-12
- Japan Pharma Peer Set Sales Forecast, 2006-12
- Japan Pharma Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12
- Japan Pharma Change In Annual Sales, 2006-12
- Japan Pharma Therapy Area Analysis
- Japan Pharma By Therapy Area Sales, 2006
- Japan Pharma By Therapy Area Sales, 2012
- Japan Pharma Molecule Type Analysis
- Japan Pharma By Molecule Type Focus, 2006
- Japan Pharma By Molecule Type Focus, 2012
- Japan Pharma Launches And Expiries Analysis
- Japan Pharma Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
- Japan Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
Chapter 6 Appendix
- References
- Exchange Rates
List of Tables
- Table 1: Pharmavitae Company Universe By Peer Set
- Table 2: Therapy Area Abbreviations (Used Throughout Report)
- Table 3: Summary of Analysis
- Table 4: Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Company ($M), 2006-12
- Table 5: Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Therapy Area ($M), 2006-12
- Table 6: Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Molecule Type ($M), 2006-12
- Table 7: Big Pharma Members
- Table 8: Big Pharma Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Table 9: Big Pharma Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries ($M), 2006-12
- Table 10: Big Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12
- Table 11: Mid Pharma Members
- Table 12: Mid Pharma Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Table 13: Mid Pharma Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries ($M), 2006-12
- Table 14: Mid Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12
- Table 15: Biotech Members
- Table 16: Biotech Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Table 17: Biotech Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries ($M), 2006-12
- Table 18: Biotech Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12
- Table 19: Japan Pharma Members
- Table 20: Japan Pharma Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Table 21: Japan Pharma Change In Annual Sales From Launches And Expiries ($M), 2006-12
- Table 22: Japan Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12
- Table 23: Exchange Rates, 2007
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Pharmavitae Universe Overview
- Figure 2: Big Pharma Overview
- Figure 3: Mid Pharma Overview
- Figure 4: Biotech Overview
- Figure 5: Japan Pharma Overview
- Figure 6: Pharmavitae Universe By Peer Set Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 7: Peer Set Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates (%), 2006-12
- Figure 8: Company 2006 Sales ($M) X 2006-12 Cagr (%) Matrix
- Figure 9: Peer Sets Occupy Discrete Regions of The 2006 Sales ($M) X 2006-12 Cagr (%) Matrix
- Figure 10: Scale Limit of The 2006 Sales ($M) X 2006-12 Cagr (%) Matrix
- Figure 11: Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Therapy Area ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 12: Therapy Area Compound Annual Growth Rates (%), 2006-12
- Figure 13: Peer Set Therapy Area Focus (%), 2006
- Figure 14: Company Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12, Predicted On Basis of Therapy Area Focus
- Figure 15: Pharmavitae Universe Sales Forecast By Molecule Type ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 16: Molecule Type Compound Annual Growth Rates (%), 2006-12
- Figure 17: Peer Set Molecule Type Focus (%), 2006
- Figure 18: Company Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2006-12, Predicted On The Basis of Molecule Type
- Figure 19: Small Molecule Focus (%), 2006 X Change In Sales of Expiry Portfolio (%), 2006-12
- Figure 20: Glaxosmithkline's Launch Portfolio, Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 21: Glaxosmithkline's Expiry Portfolio, Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 22: Glaxosmithkline's Core Portfolio, Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 23: Glaxosmithkline Launch/Core/Expiry Analysis, Change In Annual Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 24: Company Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries, 2006-12
- Figure 25: Big Pharma Overview
- Figure 26: Big Pharma Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 27: Big Pharma Peer Set Sales Forecast ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 28: Big Pharma Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates (%), 2006-12
- Figure 29: Big Pharma Change In Annual Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 30: Big Pharma By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2006
- Figure 31: Big Pharma By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2012
- Figure 32: Big Pharma By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2006
- Figure 33: Big Pharma By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2012
- Figure 34: Big Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12
- Figure 35: Mid Pharma Overview
- Figure 36: Mid Pharma Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 37: Mid Pharma Peer Set Sales Forecast ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 38: Mid Pharma Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates (%), 2006-12
- Figure 39: Mid Pharma Change In Annual Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 40: Mid Pharma By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2006
- Figure 41: Mid Pharma By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2012
- Figure 42: Mid Pharma By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2006
- Figure 43: Mid Pharma By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2012
- Figure 44: Mid Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12
- Figure 45: Biotech Overview
- Figure 46: Biotech Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 47: Biotech Peer Set Sales Forecast ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 48: Biotech Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates (%), 2006-12
- Figure 49: Biotech Change In Annual Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 50: Biotech By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2006
- Figure 51: Biotech By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2012
- Figure 52: Biotech By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2006
- Figure 53: Biotech By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2012
- Figure 54: Biotech Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12
- Figure 55: Japan Pharma Overview
- Figure 56: Japan Pharma Sales Forecasts ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 57: Japan Pharma Peer Set Sales Forecast ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 58: Japan Pharma Sales Compound Annual Growth Rates (%), 2006-12
- Figure 59: Japan Pharma Change In Annual Sales ($M), 2006-12
- Figure 60: Japan Pharma By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2006
- Figure 61: Japan Pharma By Therapy Area Sales ($M), 2012
- Figure 62: Japan Pharma By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2006
- Figure 63: Japan Pharma By Molecule Type Focus (%), 2012
- Figure 64: Japan Pharma Sales Growth Rates From Launches And Expiries (%), 2006-12