Canada Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2009

Latest figures from the Canada Patented Medicines Review Board (PMRB) reveal that patented drug spending in Canada is on the rise, evidenced by a 5% increase in sales between 2007 and 2008 to a value of US$11.7bn. BMI's figures of US$12.5bn in 2008 closely matched the report, underlining the strength of our forecast that the patented drug market will reach a value of US$14.7bn by 2013, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% in US dollar terms.

Our forecast reflects several key developments which are also mentioned in the PMRB report - including the overall rise of prescription drug sales, although price increases in line with inflation are not key factors for this growth. The PMRB also highlights that anti-parasitic/anti-infective drugs, cardiovascular and immunomodulating agents formed the major components of sales figures. Cardiovascular medicines were stated as reaching CAD3.17bn (US$2.86bn) in 2008.

While growth in these therapeutic areas is attributed to the disease burden of the country, including increasing hypertension, diabetes and obesity-related conditions, we also note that despite the growth of patented medicines, the proportion of total drug spending allocated to the sector in Canada declined at a
-0.8% CAGR between 2008 and 2013. We note that cheaper generic drugs will become more popular owing to the rapid expansion of products on offer after the 2011-13 patent cliff.

Deaths resulting from heart disease in Canada have fallen by just under a third between 1994 and 2004.

Research published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal (CMAJ) also revealed that the survival rate from heart attacks contributed significantly to the reduction, with fatalities from strokes and heart failure down by 23% and 28%, respectively. BMI believes the country is an example of successful health awareness campaigns, with patients actively seeking preventative measures and diagnoses sooner.

According to our Burden of Disease Database (BoDD), the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to cardiovascular disease in Canada will actually rise from 405,973 in 2008 to 440,433 by 2030, highlighting that while the mortality rate for this disease may be decreasing, the DALYs are going up. However, on the upside, the proportion of cardiovascular DALYs in the total disease burden in Canada is set to fall marginally from 11.7% to 11.2% over the forecast period.