Chinese Pharmaceutical Market Outlook 2009-2024

Content

• 1 Executive Summary
  • 1.1 Crucial Aspects of this Report
    • 1.1.1 China's Economy: Growing Despite Credit Crisis
    • 1.1.2 China's Healthcare Stimulus
  • 1.2 Aims, Scope and Format of this Report
    • 1.2.1 China: The Market to Watch Carefully
    • 1.2.2 Contents Breakdown: Four Types of Forecasts
    • 1.2.3 Chapter Outline
  • 1.3 Research Methods
• 2 Chinese Market Overview
  • 2.1 Whole-Market Forecast, 2009-2024 ($bn)
  • 2.2 China's $124bn Healthcare Stimulus for 2009-2020
  • 2.3 Sectors Most Likely to Benefit from the Healthcare Stimulus Plan
  • 2.4 Visiongain's Assessment of the Impact of the Healthcare Stimulus Plan on Pharmaceutical Sales
    • 2.4.1 The Impact of Separating Pharmacies from Hospitals
    • 2.4.2 The Need to Support Hospitals
  • 2.5 Pricing Policies (Pre-Stimulus Reform)
    • 2.5.1 Price Controls Set by National Reform and Development Commission
    • 2.5.2 Critiques of Price-Control Effectiveness
    • 2.5.3 Subsidised Drugs
    • 2.5.4 Patient-Level Prices: Producers Receive Under 40%
    • 2.5.5 Sales of Prescription Drugs
  • 2.6 China: Predicted to Have Largest World Economy by 2040
  • 2.7 Brief Overview of China's Healthcare Situation
  • 2.8 China's Healthcare Costs: Some Crucial Data
  • 2.9 China Seeking to Improve Research and Development Profile
    • 2.9.1 Intellectual Property Rights: Length of Patents and Protection Situation
    • 2.9.2 Patent-Granting Authority and Patent Life
    • 2.9.3 Innovation Companies and Departments
  • 2.10 Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Science Park: Doubling R&D Output in Three Years
    • 2.10.1 R&D Tax Benefits
    • 2.10.2 Facilitating Strategic Alliances
    • 2.10.3 Timeline for the Zhangjiang Project
    • 2.10.4 CROs in Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park: Gaining Access to the European Market
  • 2.11 Disease Burdens in China: Some Crucial Tables and 2.11.1 Leading Causes of Death in China
    • 2.11.2 Respiratory Diseases
    • 2.11.3 Cancer
    • 2.11.4 Diabetes
    • 2.11.5 Obesity, Cholesterol and Cardiovascular Disease
• 3 Prescription Pharmaceutical Market Forecasts, 2009-2024
  • 3.1 China: Pharma Growth Forecast 2009-2014
  • 3.2 China: Pharma Growth Forecast 2014-2024
  • 3.3 Pharmaceutical Market Breakdown by Categories
  • 3.4 Antibiotics and Anti-Infectives
    • 3.4.1 Types of Antibiotics Sold in China
    • 3.4.2 Antibiotics: Sales Growing but Losing Market Share
    • 3.4.3 Antibiotics Became Prescription-Only in July 2004
    • 3.4.4 Prevalence of Adverse Reactions to Antibiotics
    • 3.4.5 Alleged Over-Prescription Likely to Continue?
  • 3.5 Traditional Chinese Medicines (TCMs)
    • 3.5.1 Definition of TCM in this Report
    • 3.5.2 TCMs: Growing Through to 2024, Though Market Share Will Diminish
    • 3.5.3 TCMs in the Home and in Hospitals
    • 3.5.4 TCM and Approaches to Health and National Identity
    • 3.5.5 Perceptions of TCM versus Western Medicine: Speed and Side Effects
    • 3.5.6 Export and Government Promotion of TCMs
  • 3.6 Vasotherapeutics / Vasodilators
    • 3.6.1 Retaining Market Share through to 2024
    • 3.6.2 Drugs Included in the Vasotherapeutics Category
    • 3.6.3 Vasotherapeutics: Promoting Vitality
  • 3.7 Solutions
    • 3.7.1 Products Included as "Solutions"
    • 3.7.2 Solutions Market Growing More Quickly than the Overall Market Through to 2019, then More Slowly Through to 2024
    • 3.7.3 Key Marketing Companies in China: Shijiazhuang No. 4 and Baxter International
  • 3.8 Antiulcerants
    • 3.8.1 One of the Highest Growth-Rate Categories from 2019-2024
    • 3.8.2 Drugs Included in the Antiulcerants Category
    • 3.8.3 Antiulcerants Pipeline
  • 3.9 Immunostimulating Agents
    • 3.9.1 Immunostimulating Agents: How Fast Will Market Growth Be in China?
    • 3.9.2 The Pipeline: Promising, but Subject to High Failure Rates
    • 3.9.3 China's Cancer Rate Rising
  • 3.10 Diabetes Treatments
    • 3.10.1 Sales Accelerating Through 2015 and Strong Through to 2024
    • 3.10.2 Insulin and Antidiabetics
    • 3.10.3 Novo Nordisk Building Insulin Factory in China
    • 3.10.4 Novo Nordisk and Insulin: Benefiting from Intra-Country Sales
  • 3.11 Vaccines (and Others)
    • 3.11.1 Vaccines: An Important but Relatively Closed Market
    • 3.11.2 China is the Largest Vaccine Consumer in the World
    • 3.11.3 Chinese Vaccine Manufacturing
    • 3.11.4 Chinese Vaccine Research and Development
    • 3.11.5 Sinovac Receives Swine Flu Orders from Beijing
    • 3.11.6 Sinovac Begins Testing H1N1 Vaccine in People
    • 3.11.7 Swine Flu Vaccines and Hualan Biological Engineering Inc.
    • 3.11.8 Swine Flu Vaccine Yields Accumulate Slowly
• 4 Generics, Branded and Over-the-Counter Drugs in China: Market Breakdown and Forecasts
  • 4.1 Prescription Drugs: Branded versus Generics Value Forecasts, 2009-2024
  • 4.2 Prescription Drugs: Branded versus Generics Volume Forecasts, 2009-2024
  • 4.3 Prescription Drugs: Branded versus Generic Drugs Value as Market Share Percentage, 2009-2024
  • 4.4 Summary Figures: Generics and Branded Drugs
  • 4.5 OTC Market Compared to Prescription Market
    • 4.5.1 OTC and Prescription Markets: Sales Growth from 2009
    • 4.5.2 OTC Market Growing More Quickly than the Prescription Market Throughout the Forecast Period?
  • 4.6 Over-the-Counter Market: How Will This Market Compare with Others in China?
    • 4.6.1 Categories Included in Over-the-Counter Forecast
• 5 Multinational Corporations Investing in China
  • 5.1 GlaxoSmithKline
    • 5.1.1 Conducting Neurodegenerative Research in China Since 2007
    • 5.1.2 Influenza Vaccines Joint Venture with Shenzhen Neptunus
  • 5.2 NeoStem: Pre-Disease, Adult Stem Cell Harvesting and Storage
    • 5.2.1 NeoStem and Enhance BioMedical Holdings Ltd (Shanghai)
    • 5.2.2 NeoStem and Suzhou Erye Pharmaceuticals Company, Ltd
  • 5.3 Bayer Schering Pharma: Investing in Its Third-Largest Market
    • 5.3.1 Investing $129m in Research and Development Centre in Beijing
    • 5.3.2 In Talks with Tsinghua University
  • 5.4 Sanofi-Aventis
    • 5.4.1 Influenza Vaccines Facility in Shenzhen
    • 5.4.2 Helping to Treat Diabetes in China
    • 5.4.3 Partnership with the Chinese Diabetes Society
  • 5.5 Novo Nordisk: Producing Insulin in China
    • 5.5.1 Donation of a License to Novo Nordisk's Small-Molecule Compound Library
  • 5.6 Roche: Expanding R&D Facilities and Seeking Partnerships
  • 5.7 AstraZeneca: Investing in R&D in China
    • 5.7.1 Oncology R&D
    • 5.7.2 Schizophrenia and New Drug Partnerships
    • 5.7.3 Research Fund for COPD Research
  • 5.8 Pfizer: Seeking Acquisitions and Partnerships in China
• 6 Selected Domestic Companies
  • 6.1 Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Beijing Kexing Bioproducts): Human Vaccine Products
    • 6.1.1 Sinovac Receives Swine Flu Orders from Beijing
    • 6.1.2 Sinovac's Revenues Depend on a Small Number of Products
    • 6.1.3 Sinovac's Solvency and its R&D Power
  • 6.2 WuXi AppTec: Leading Contract Research and Development
    • 6.2.1 WuXi's 2008 Performance
    • 6.2.2 Maintaining Customer Satisfaction
    • 6.2.3 WuXi and AstraZeneca: Partnership Extended in 2008
  • 6.3 Mindray Medical International: Medical Devices
    • 6.3.1 Product Penetration
    • 6.3.2 Mindray's Financial Successes: Q1 2009 Growth of Nearly 70% in International Markets
  • 6.4 China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd. (Nepstar): Moving Towards Chain-Store Pharmacies
    • 6.4.1 Financial Performance and NYSE Listing
    • 6.4.2 Chain Stores: The Future of Chinese Pharmacies?
  • 6.5 Hualan Biological Engineering Inc. (Hualan Biological Engineering Ltd.): The Top Blood Product Company
    • 6.5.1 Hualan Testing Swine Flu Vaccine: Results Expected in September2009
  • 6.6 Tianyin Pharmaceutical Co., Inc.: Modernised Traditional Chinese Medicine
    • 6.6.1 Financial Performance and Expectations
  • 6.7 Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.: China's First IPO in 2009
  • 6.8 Guangzhou Pharmaceuticals Corporation / Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Company, Ltd.
    • 6.8.1 Affiliation with BMP Sunstone Corporation / Sunstone Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. / BMP China
    • 6.8.2 Guangzhou and British Company Alliance Boots plc.
  • 6.9 China Sky One Medical, Inc.
    • 6.9.1 China Sky One Medical's Wholly-Owned Subsidiaries
    • 6.9.2 Financial Information: Revenues Grow 100% over Q1 2008
    • 6.9.3 September 2008 Acquisition of Jin Chuang
  • 6.10 Harbin Pharmaceutical Group Holding Company, Ltd.
  • 6.11 CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited (CSPC Pharma)
    • 6.11.1 Financial Summary: 48% Increase in Net Profits for First Four Months of 2009
    • 6.11.2 Moving from APIs to Finished OTC Products
    • 6.11.3 CSPC Pharma Patents and Pipeline
    • 6.11.4 China Pharma Holdings: SFDA Approval for Generic Crestor Clinical Trial
  • 6.12 China Medical Technologies: In Vitro Diagnostics Specialists
    • 6.12.1 Financial Summary: Adjusted Income Increased 79% Year-Over-Year 2008-2009
  • 6.13 China National Biotec Group (CNBG)
    • 6.13.1 CNBG's Future Trajectory
    • 6.13.2 CNBG, PATH, and Chengdu Institute of Biological Products: Advancing Cost-Effective Vaccines for the Developing World
  • 6.14 China National Pharmaceutical Corporation (Sinopharm): Holding the Nation's Medicines Reserve
  • 6.15 Shenyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical Company Limited (Sunshine)
    • 6.15.1 Financial Summary: First Quarter 2009 Net Revenues Increase 23.7% over First Quarter 2009
• 7 Chinese Market Conditions: Drivers and Restraints
  • 7.1 Strengths and Weaknesses
  • 7.2 Opportunities and Threats
  • 7.3 Market Highly Fragmented: 3000-6000 Manufacturers and 15,000 Distributors
    • 7.3.1 Nepstar and the Chain Store Pharmacy: Changing the Nature of Distribution?
    • 7.3.2 API Companies: Moving Towards Vertical Integration
  • 7.4 Moves Towards Greater Privatisation
  • 7.5 Mandatory Pricing Schemes / Price Controls
    • 7.5.1 Applications for Independent Pricing: Affecting Drugs' Perceived and Market Values
    • 7.5.2 The 2006 Anti-Corruption Campaign and Prescribing Practices
  • 7.6 Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs)
    • 7.6.1 Proximal Production
    • 7.6.2 Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients: Oversight and Quality Control
    • 7.6.3 International and Domestic Concerns about API Quality
    • 7.6.4 Multinational Corporations Building Their Own Factories
  • 7.7 Counterfeit Drugs: A Continuing Problem
    • 7.7.1 Pfizer's 2003 Anti-Counterfeiting Scheme in Shanghai
    • 7.7.2 Counterfeits and the Internet
    • 7.7.3 Discovery of Counterfeits in Legitimate Distribution Channels
  • 7.8 Generics Spreading Abroad: China is Poised to Provide
    • 7.8.1 Safety Questions: Slowing Generics Exports?
  • 7.9 Intellectual Property Rights / Laws: Improving Protection
    • 7.9.1 Lack of Regulatory Transparency: Another R&D Challenge in China?
• 8 Stem Cells in China: An Interview with Dr Stephen Minger, King's College London, Co-Founder of the London Regenerative Medicines Network
  • 8.1 On Why China is a Central Stem Cell Research Region
  • 8.2 On Regulatory Conditions in China
  • 8.3 On the Major Clinical Difference Between China and Europe/US Trials
  • 8.4 On Laboratory Specialties
  • 8.5 On Stem Cells Clinical Trials: Brain Cell Transplants
  • 8.6 On Non-Approved Stem Cell Collection and Treatment Businesses
  • 8.7 On Cord Blood and Public Stem Cells
  • 8.8 On 'Stem Cells' as Business Buzzword
  • 8.9 On How Stem Cell Funding is Allocated in China
• 9 China as a Clinical Trials Destination
  • 9.1 International Trends Towards Outsourcing/Offshoring
  • 9.2 China's Share of the Clinical Trials Market
  • 9.3 China: Promising but Problematic
    • 9.3.1 China's Market Share Growing Through to 2024
  • 9.4 Necessary Phase III Trials in China
  • 9.5 More International Investigation Sites Registering for FDA Approval
  • 9.6 How Countries Invite More Trials
  • 9.7 How Foreign Clinical Trials Help Host Countries
  • 9.8 Continuing Challenges for Emerging Outsourcing Markets Such as China
  • 9.9 China Pharma Holdings wins SFDA-Approval for Generic Crestor Clinical Trial
  • 9.10 China and Generics Clinical Trials
  • 9.11 Sundia: Ranked In Top 100 Fastest-Growing Outsourcing Service Providers
    • 9.11.1 Sundia: Shortening Customs Times
• 10 Conclusions
  • 10.1 Key Findings and Data from this Report
  • 10.2 Summary Points
    • 10.2.1 Drivers: Population, Domestic and Foreign Investment and Increasing Affluence
    • 10.2.2 Restraints: Poverty, Intellectual Property and Regulatory Difficulties and Uneven Healthcare Penetration
• List of Tables
  • Table 2.1 Chinese Whole-Market Forecast, 2009-2019 ($bn)
  • Table 2.2 Chinese Whole-Market Forecast, 2019-2024 ($bn)
  • Table 2.3 Five Policy Points of China's 2009-2011 Stimulus
  • Table 2.4 Pricing Rules in China (Pre-Stimulus Reforms)
  • Table 2.5 Top Causes of Death in China, 2002
  • Table 2.6 Respiratory Deaths in China by Category, 2002
  • Table 2.7 Cancer Deaths in China by Type, 2002 (%)
  • Table 2.8 Diabetes Type 2 Prevalence in China by Age Group, 2002
  • Table 3.1 Chinese Total Prescription Market Forecast, 2009-2019 ($bn)
  • Table 3.2 Chinese Total Prescription Market Forecast, 2019-2024 ($bn)
  • Table 3.3 Chinese Pharmaceutical Market Forecast by Drug Category,
  • Table 3.4 Chinese Pharmaceutical Market Forecast by Drug Category,
  • Table 3.5 Antibiotics and Anti-Infectives Forecast, 2009-2019 ($m)
  • Table 3.6 Antibiotics and Anti-Infectives Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 3.7 Traditional Chinese Medicines Forecast, 2009-2014 ($m)
  • Table 3.8 Traditional Chinese Medicines Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 3.9 Vasotherapeutics Forecast, 2009-2019 ($m)
  • Table 3.10 Vasotherapeutics Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 3.11 Top Vasotherapeutics Sold in China, by Name and Active
  • Table 3.12 Solutions Forecast, 2009-2019 ($m)
  • Table 3.13 Solutions Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 3.14 Types of Solutions and Indications
  • Table 3.15 Antiulcerants Forecast, 2009-2019 ($m)
  • Table 3.16 Antiulcerants Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 3.17 Top Antiulcerants Sold in China, by Name and Active
  • Table 3.18 Immunostimulating Agents Forecast, 2009-2019 ($m)
  • Table 3.19 Immunostimulating Agents Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 3.20 Diabetes Treatments Forecast, 2009-2019 ($m)
  • Table 3.21 Diabetes Treatments Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 3.22 Other Pharmaceuticals Forecast, 2009-2019 ($m)
  • Table 3.23 Other Pharmaceuticals Forecast, 2019-2024 ($m)
  • Table 4.1 Branded Drugs and Generics Forecasts, 2009-2019 ($bn)
  • Table 4.2 Branded Drugs and Generics Forecasts, 2019-2024 ($bn)
  • Table 4.3 Relative CAGRs (%)
  • Table 4.4 Over-the-Counter Market Forecast, 2009-2019 ($bn)
  • Table 4.5 Over-the-Counter Market Forecast, 2019-2024 ($bn)
  • Table 5.1 Bayer Schering Pharma China's Business Divisions and Top 10
  • Table 6.1 China Sky One Medical Wholly-Owned Subsidiaries
  • Table 6.2 Sinopharm's Wholly-Owned Subsidiaries
  • Table 6.3 Sinopharm's Major Joint Ventures
  • Table 7.1 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Chinese Market, 2009
  • Table 7.2 Opportunities In and Threats to the Market, 2009-2024
  • Table 9.1 Clinical Trials: Total Market and China Forecasts, 2009-2024
  • Table 9.2 Costs and Benefits of Conducting Clinical Trials in China
  • Table 9.3 Some Countries Actively Funding Drug Development
  • Table 9.4 Benefits and Challenges to Outsourcing Host Countries
• List of Figures
  • Figure 2.1 Chinese Whole-Market Forecast, 2009-2024 ($bn)
  • Figure 2.2 Top Causes of Death in China, 2002
  • Figure 2.3 Respiratory Deaths in China by Category, 2002
  • Figure 2.4 Cancer Deaths in China by Type (%), 2002
  • Figure 2.5 Diabetes Type 2 Prevalence in China, 2002
  • Figure 3.1 Total Market Forecast, 2009-2024 ($bn)
  • Figure 3.2 Forecast for Three Drug Categories with 2009 Sales Over
  • Figure 3.3 Forecast for Five Drug Categories with 2009 Sales Under
  • Figure 3.4 Antibiotics and Anti-Infectives Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 3.5 Antibiotics and Anti-infectives Category Breakdown by Value
  • Figure 3.6 Traditional Chinese Medicines Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 3.7 Vasotherapeutics Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 3.8 Solutions Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 3.9 Antiulcerants Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 3.10 Immunostimulating Agents Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 3.11 Diabetes Treatments Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 3.12 Other Pharmaceuticals Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 4.1 Branded Drugs and Generics Values Forecasts, 2009-2024 ($bn)
  • Figure 4.2 Branded Drugs and Generics Volume Forecasts, 2009-2024 (%)
  • Figure 4.3 Branded Drugs and Generics Value as Percentage Forecasts,
  • Figure 4.4 Comparison of Generics and Branded Drugs' Volume and Value
  • Figure 4.5 Comparison of Generics and Branded Drugs' Volume and Value
  • Figure 4.6 OTC, Prescription and Total Market Forecasts, 2009-2024 ($bn)
  • Figure 4.7 Over-the-Counter Market Forecast, 2009-2024 ($bn)
  • Figure 9.1 China: Clinical Trials Market Forecast, 2009-2024 ($m)
  • Figure 9.2 China: Clinical Trials Market Share Forecast, 2009-2024 (%)